Trump indictment on 34 felony counts energizing his base but solidifying opposition, too

Against the odds, the high-profile indictment of former President Donald J. Trump has boomerranged to actually strengthen his political chances in next year’s primaries among some fired-up Republicans.

Supporters who are already deeply suspicious of the government are taking Trump’s side as a martyr suffering from a political prosecution. But that does not necessarily mean Trump can win the general election in 2024 as the wider public is deeply concerned about the broader array of other legal cases against him, officials said.

Trump has strengthened his position in polls among Republicans after being indicted on 34 Class E felony counts for falsifying business records regarding hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, who says she had a one-night stand with Trump and was paid $130,000 to avoid talking about it in October 2016 as Trump was running for president.

The case has exploded in wall-to-wall coverage on cable television that included live broadcasts of Trump’s motorcade to Manhattan criminal court to be arraigned in front of the judge.

House Republican leader Vincent Candelora of North Branford says the overwhelming concern about the overreach of the legal process is prompting Republicans to rush to Trump’s side. Even longtime opponent Mitt Romney, a senator who says Trump is unfit for office and voted twice to convict him after impeachment trials, said the prosecution is political.

“It looks like people are rallying behind him,” Candelora said in an interview. “He becomes the face of martyrdom, and I think that would certainly strengthen support for him. But it’s only a matter of time that any political official could be subjected to this type of abuse by the judicial system. When it enters the political arena, it could go either way. Maybe it is intended to make him the nominee because he is the one that could most easily be beaten in a general election. But the conversation should revolve around innocent until proven guilty.”

After a weak performance in the November 2022 elections for many candidates backed by Trump, Candelora said the party needed to move on and seek new leaders. Now, he says the indictment has made him far more concerned about the rule of law than the political implications.

“This is less about Trump and more about our process,” he said.

Longtime political science professor and author Gary Rose, who teaches at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, said the indictment will help Trump in the primary but hurt him in the 2024 general election.

“There’s no question in my mind that, even in New England, where we have a lot of moderate Republicans, you’re finding somewhat of a groundswell of Republicans that really feel that this has been a political indictment,” Rose said in an interview. “I think some of them have probably come over to Trump’s side because of that and have abandoned some of the other Republicans who were starting to enter the race.”

At the same time, the arrest simultaneously strengthens the staunch opposition to Trump among Democrats and liberals, he said.

“I don’t see how an indicted former president who is running again is going to generate broad-based support that is needed in the general election,” Rose said. “You can’t win on your base. You’ve got to get a hefty share of the middle, and the middle, I don’t believe, is Trump country with this indictment. A lot of those people abandoned him, and they’re not coming back, and this probably hardens their views on him.”

Rose added, “Republicans are inherently opposed to government, anyway. They don’t trust the government. They don’t like the IRS. It’s become, in many ways, an anti-government party. So when this happens, it even fuels that more.”

With thousands of pending cases, the trials in the Manhattan district attorney’s office move relatively slowly. After various motions are made in the coming months, the next court hearing is not scheduled until Dec. 4. The prosecution wants Trump’s case to go to trial in January 2024, but Trump supporters note that timing would be during the Republican presidential primary season.

Weicker vs. Trump

While gaining support among Republicans, Trump is still being criticized by two longtime Connecticut political giants — former Gov. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. and former presidential candidate and consumer activist Ralph Nader.

Weicker, who tangled with Trump in the 1990s when Trump was trying unsuccessfully to build a casino in Bridgeport, raised the specter of Watergate in comparing Trump to another highly controversial president.

“Fifty years ago, I participated in the investigation of the illegal activities of Richard Nixon,” said Weicker, who turns 92 next month. “I never believed that I would see another president abuse the powers of the office for personal and political gain. I was wrong. It is a sad day for our country.”

Weicker’s battle with Trump started in October 1993 when Trump testified at a high-profile hearing in front of a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee in Washington, D.C. Clashing with members of Congress at times, Trump blasted the Mashantucket Pequot tribe by saying, “They don’t look like Indians to me.”

Weicker, who had reached an agreement with the tribe for the state to receive slot machine revenues that has now been effective for three decades, called Trump a “dirtbag” after the incident.

“I called him a bigot, if I recall, and he hasn’t changed,” Weicker said. “He called me a fat slob, but I have lost weight.”

Trump returned to Connecticut years later with strategist Roger Stone to talk to reporters at the Max Downtown restaurant in Hartford about his exploration for possibly running for president in 2000 — 16 years before he won the nomination in 2016. On his return to Hartford, Trump was asked if he was sorry that he had called Weicker a “fat slob” in their public clash.

Trump responded, “At least I’m accurate.”

Ralph Nader on other legal problems

Like Weicker, Nader said the indictment is an important development for a former president with other legal problems.

“The justice department was not going to go after him when he was in the White House, but after he leaves, he’s vulnerable to the criminal law just the way Nixon and any of the others were,” Nader told The Courant in a telephone interview. “As president, he violated all kinds of criminal laws. He politicized the IRS against his enemies. … They’re focusing on January 6 and taking documents to Mar-a-Lago. And then there’s Georgia. Those are serious, especially January 6. Also, saying, ‘Find me 11,000 votes.’ That’s pretty serious, too.”

Nader was referring to Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection that has led to more than 1,000 arrests and more than 500 convictions for rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to stop the counting of votes in the Electoral College. Trump is also under investigation after the FBI found classified documents that were taken to his home at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and he is being scrutinized on election issues in Georgia in which state officials said they were pressured to find votes after Democrat Joe Biden was declared the winner in 2020.

Nader cited a quote by Trump in July 2019 when he said several times that Article II of the U.S. Constitution would allow him to “do whatever I want as president’,’ a view disputed by scholars.

“It is absolutely essential to understanding his lawlessness, his contempt for the law,” said Nader, a graduate of Harvard Law School. “That is the admission of all time, right there.”

But Nader refused to make any predictions about 2024.

“I don’t deal in crystal balls,” Nader said. “Nobody knows what’s going to happen in a year.”

Candelora, the House Republican leader, said the Stormy Daniels case could be the least of Trump’s problems when compared to other legal cases.

“The wrinkle here is I think they took potentially the weakest case that nobody at the federal level wanted to bring,” Candelora said. “If he’s wrongfully accused and the case is dismissed, it may create a chilling effect on any other case being brought against him. It’s very difficult to predict. But I never thought, in my lifetime, that I would see the weaponization of the judicial process the way it’s been done.”

Conservatives for Trump

For years, the Trump base has stuck close to the candidate, regardless of the controversy. That loyalty is now continuing and solidifying.

State Rep. Doug Dubitsky, a Republican attorney who is among the most conservative members of the state legislature, said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson have little chance in next year’s primaries as Trump says he has raised about $8 million since the indictment was announced.

“It doesn’t make any sense politically for DeSantis to go head to head with Trump,” Dubitsky said in an interview. “DeSantis’s best play is to wait. The Republican primary is really the zealots, and they’re not going to support Nikki Haley. Asa Hutchinson will be lucky if he gets a half a percent. In a Republican primary, he’s nowhere.”

The reality, Dubitsky said, is that Republican primary voters are in no mood to support moderates.

“Chris Christie — he’s got nothing,” Dubitsky said. “This is not the year for squishy Republicans. Chris Christie claims not to be one, but if you look at his policy statements, he really is a middle-of-the-road guy. This year, I don’t think anybody in the middle will have any hope.”

Another conservative, Rep. Anne Dauphinais of the Danielson section of Killingly, said Democrats and some prosecutors clearly have been targeting Trump.

“For sure, it seems they want Trump’s head. I don’t think anyone can disagree with that,” she said in an interview. “Trump has brought out the passion in everybody — on one side or the other. In my lifetime, I have not seen anyone fire up the masses like he has.”

Former gubernatorial candidate Joe Visconti, an outspoken supporter of Trump for years, said the indictment is directly helping Trump’s fundraising among a large number of small donors.

“The money he’s been bringing in has been ridiculous,” Visconti said. “Everyone I know, including me, wants to give him money. Five bucks a week. Five bucks a month. It doesn’t matter. People are ready to open their wallets.”

Longtime Greenwich Republican activist Edward Dadakis, a former town chairman and former member of the state central committee, said, “In Banana Republics, they arrest presidents with charges as thin as gruel. What is most outrageous is the double standard, which clearly exists. President Trump has fought hard for America and Americans. For him to be treated this way is shameful.”

Regardless of what happens with the indictment and other cases, Rose predicts that Trump’s base will never abandon him.

“Even if he’s indicted on the Georgia one, it’s not going to slow down his base,” Rose said. “I just find it troubling how people are devoted to an individual so much. … Have I ever seen such devotion to an individual? No, not in my lifetime. The Republican Party with Trump has taken on somewhat of a cult-like atmosphere. No matter what, people are loyal to him. The devotion is just so intense and deep. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com