After Trump’s Iowa dominance, the intrigue is in the race for second

Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses Monday night amounted to a crushing blow to Ron DeSantis and iced the momentum of Nikki Haley.

The former president’s 30-point rout underscored his enduring popularity among Republican voters but also exposed the weakness of his rivals, both who vowed to continue their campaigns, ostensibly dividing the anti-Trump vote.

DeSantis won the race for second place in Iowa — but only barely — and his campaign hasn’t presented any evidence of a nominating state the Florida governor can win, calling into question the long-term viability of his candidacy.

“Clearing 20 and just getting second place, I think it’s really tough,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican consultant on a livestream hosted by Mark Halperin. “They’re going to have trouble to keep going at this point. They’re going to be calls to jump out.”

Newt Gingrich, the former presidential candidate and House speaker, was even more emphatic on Fox News. “He is the nominee,” he said of Trump. “Get over it. He is the nominee.”

While Haley has an outside shot at an upset in New Hampshire next Tuesday, she faces rising expectations to show she can threaten Trump in a more moderate state that allows independents to vote in the GOP primary.

“Currently, Donald Trump’s [polling] average vote share in New Hampshire is 43.5%,” wrote Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney in a memo. “The Iowa results and the New Hampshire polls show Donald Trump is more vulnerable than commonly believed.”

Confronting a third-place finish in New Hampshire, the DeSantis campaign is already signaling it might focus most of its time and resources on attempting to win South Carolina, which votes on Feb. 24.

“They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us. They spent almost $50 million dollars attacking us. The media was against us. They were writing our obituary months ago … Because of your support … we’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa,” DeSantis told his caucus night party.

In the Granite State, it’s Haley who has positioned herself as the main challenger to Trump, based on her strength with independent voters. DeSantis has only been polling in single digits in New Hampshire and his campaign hasn’t invested in advertising, though he does have scheduled stops there on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Based on her rising standing in New Hampshire, Haley made a late play for second place in Iowa, with her outside super PAC becoming the leading spender, investing in a splurge of television advertising attacking DeSantis. But DeSantis had the help from his own super PAC, Never Back Down, which contacted 1 million Iowans and followed up with targeted supporters multiple times over the course of the campaign.

That organizational muster was good enough to ice Haley’s momentum in Iowa, but it also fell short of the decisive second-place finish the DeSantis campaign had hoped for months ago.

“DeSantis is dead, but still circling the drain,” quipped Democratic strategist Joe Trippi.

Speaking to supporters after his victory, Trump showed an unexpected gesture of graciousness toward both of his competitors, saying that DeSantis and Haley “both did very well.”

That magnanimity won’t likely last long as Trump looks to quash Haley over the next week and attempt to close out the Republican primary quickly.

In her speech to supporters, Haley attempted to frame her close third-place finish as the ramp toward a two-person race between herself and the former president.

“The question before Americans is now very clear: Do you want more of the same? Or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership?,” Haley asked. She did not mention DeSantis in her speech.

But Haley’s candidacy rests on her performance in the next two big contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where she was a twice-elected governor.

Even if she is able to edge out Trump in New Hampshire, a loss in her home state in South Carolina next month would likely end her candidacy.

Trump, who lost the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz in 2016, far outpaced both DeSantis and Haley on Monday night, becoming the first GOP presidential candidate to win an outright majority of the vote in a multi-candidate caucus.

While turnout fell precipitously from the 2016 event, DeSantis never threatened Trump’s hold on the state, despite visiting all 99 counties and securing the endorsement of the state’s governor. Trump ended up winning 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties.

While Haley attempts to upend Trump in New Hampshire, the question for DeSantis is where he looks next for a victory.

He’s due in New Hampshire for events on Tuesday or Wednesday, but may decide to invest more time in South Carolina, where he’ll have to overcome both Trump’s connection to the Republican base and Haley’s hometown familiarity.

Without a realistic strategy, DeSantis will face only more calls to end his campaign.

“You get smoked in New Hampshire, you have to ask yourself, how many more times do you want to get smoked?,” asked Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union, on Newsmax.