Trump lead over Biden grows in Nevada, new poll shows; Rosen with narrow lead in Senate race

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LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — In Nevada, former President Donald Trump would win a head-to-head election over President Joe Biden, and Trump’s lead has grown since early January according to an Emerson College Poll released on Thursday.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted Feb. 16-19 shows Trump with 46% of the vote in Nevada compared to Biden’s 40%. In a poll released on Jan. 9, Trump’s lead was narrower, with 47% supporting Trump and 45% for Biden. The latest poll is closer to where the race was on Nov. 9, 2023 — 46% for Trump and 39% for Biden.

The poll found 14% of voters were undecided, representing the votes that both campaigns will work to secure before the general election, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. Both candidates dominated their party’s nominating contests, with Trump taking the Republican caucus on Feb. 8 and Biden winning the Democratic primary on Feb. 6.

The poll has a credibility interval — similar to a margin of error — of plus or minus three percentage points.

And if Biden has some work to do in Nevada, Democratic U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen is in the same boat.

The Emerson Poll shows Rosen with 40% support among Nevada voters compared to Republican challenger Sam Brown, who is seen as the frontrunner among GOP candidates. Brown still has to win in the primary, where he faces opposition from nine candidates including former Nevada Assemblyman Jim Marchant and former Ambassadar to Iceland Dr. Jeff Gunter. The primary is June 11.

The poll showed Rosen with bigger leads in head-to-head matchups with Marchant (42% to 36%) and Gunter (43% to 42%). Undecided voters accounted for 22% or more in all of the matchups against Rosen. Brown, Marchant and Gunter lead the other Republican candidates in campaign fund-raising.

So what’s on Nevada voters’ minds going into the election? The economy is the top issue (26%), followed by immigration and education (both 14%), housing affordability (13%) and health care (11%).

“Sixty-one percent of voters say President Biden’s age raises serious doubts in their minds about voting for him, while 39% say his age is not a serious consideration for them. Fifty-three percent say former President Trump’s criminal indictments raise doubts in their mind about voting for Trump in 2024, while 47% note it is not a serious consideration,” according to the poll.

Hispanic voters in the state are split, with 44% support for Trump and 41% for Biden. White voters support Trump, 51% to Biden’s 39%. And women favor Trump by a narrow margin, 43% to 42%. Men backed Trump, 51% to 37%. Those figures aren’t as reliable, with a slightly higher credibility interval due to a smaller sample size.

The poll also asked about hypothetical matchups between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and Trump against California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Harris trailed Trump 39% to 48% with 14% undecided; Newsom got 32% of the vote compared to 49% for Trump and 20% undecided.

A glance at approval ratings shows 35% of voters say Nevada is headed in the right direction, while 38% say the state is on the wrong track. Biden has a 34% job approval rating, with 55% disapproval. And Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo — who is not up for re-election this cycle — holds a 42% approval rating, with 29% disapproval and 29% neutral.

Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

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