Will Trump be a no-show? Setting the stage for GOP debate in Simi Valley

The second Republican presidential debate, set for the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, is expected be chaotic, confrontational and probably Trump-less.

On Wednesday night, eight GOP candidates sparred in the opening debate in Milwaukee, most of them yelling over each other on issues ranging from a federal ban on abortion to providing school funding directly to parents. On Sept. 27, they will duel again in the Air Force One Pavilion at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library & Museum. Here’s what to expect.

What will Trump do?

Former President Donald Trump has said on social media he won’t participate in the debates and kept his word in Milwaukee. Though the participants in the Reagan event won’t be announced until late September, few analysts expect Trump to take part. They cite his plus-30 point polling lead and the scramble among other candidates to assert themselves as an alternative.

“This was the junior varsity team and Trump is the only one on the varsity team, the only one not at the kid’s table,” said Tim Allison, a political scientist at CSU Channel Islands near Camarillo. “At this point if you were Trump, you’d say let them beat up on each other.”

Others suggest the likely absence of Trump, who also faces four indictments, cracks open a door.

“He’s giving away control by not being there,” said Tab Berg, a GOP political consultant from Sacramento. “He’s playing prevent defense, and I never think that works.”

Who will be there?

It seems certain that fewer candidates will be on stage in Simi Valley than in Milwaukee because the qualifying bar is rising. Requirements include reaching 3% support in different polls instead of the 1% standard in the opening debate.

Six candidates other than Trump averaged more than 3% in primary polls as of Friday, according to the FiveThirtyEight website. They are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Will the newbie be in fights again?

Many observers said Haley emerged in the first debate and contended DeSantis will need to assert himself at the Reagan Library. The consensus is other challengers will continue to scold and criticize Ramaswamy, derided in the first debate for his inexperience and, in Christie’s words, for sounding “like ChatGPT.”

What’s unclear is if the expected attention will help or hurt the Ohio Republican who bills his campaign as a revolution.

“He’s kind of positioning himself as the heir apparent to Trump,” said Haco Hoang, political science chairperson at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks, suggesting Ramaswamy could be positioning himself as a vice presidential candidate. “He’s doing Trump without him being there.”

What issues will emerge?

The economy will certainly be a target with rising gas prices perhaps driving candidates to attack President Joe Biden. The possibility of a federal ban on abortions at 15 weeks could also emerge again with some candidates trying to appeal to the Republican base without alienating general election voters.

“You need to get primary voters but you can’t set a flagpole so deeply entrenched that it’s going to make it unwinnable for you in the general,” Hoang said.

Moderators for the debate haven’t been chosen yet but they will probably have their hands full as candidates are expected to take shots at each other in an attempt to thin the herd. Allison expects the vibe to be one of desperation.

“It's kind of like a middle child acting out to gain attention," he said.

Safest bet ever

The Sept. 27 date for the debate is certain. The time hasn’t been set.

The exact format hasn’t been announced but the debate will be broadcast by Fox Business, Univision and Rumble. Tickets will not be available for the general public due to the limited seating.

The other guarantee is the debate's setting will be accompanied by multiple references to former President Reagan.

The debate will be the fifth hosted by the presidential library in Simi Valley. The venue was announced by the Republican National Committee in April. Trump criticized the choice, aiming his complaints at the role of Fred Ryan, then publisher of The Washington Post, as chairman of the Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute.

Tom Kisken covers health care and other news for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tom.kisken@vcstar.com or 805-437-0255.

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This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Reagan Library will host GOP debate; Trump unlikely to appear