Trump sparked the Iran crisis. Now he must walk away from the brink of war
In the midst of a dangerous national security crisis like the situation with Iran, the chances for peace often rest on one side hitting the brakes.
It is time for the United States to de-escalate. That is what a true global leader would do.
In the wake of the Iranian missile attack on Iraqi bases where US and Iraqi troops are stationed, the messages coming from both governments are mixed. It’s hard to interpret any attack – even if in retaliation – as anything but dangerous and provocative. But the lack of casualties from its attack could allow Iran a face-saving way to show strength while avoiding massive escalation.
By not announcing more military action, Trump’s initial response could be viewed as avoiding further escalation as well. But Trump’s litany of threats, increased sanctions, vague request that Nato get more involved in the region, and lack of strategy or goals are not exactly calming. Trump’s policies of the last three years have done nothing but escalate tensions and brought us to the brink of war.
The danger is still very real, and more tit-for-tat escalation could spiral out of control even further. America’s military capabilities are unparalleled and could cause unconscionable devastation. Iran’s missiles can hit targets across the region, its proxies reach from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq, and America’s partners from Israel to Europe and beyond could be in Iran’s crosshairs. A war with Iran of any sort – conventional, asymmetric, or proxy – would be terrible for all.
The only responsible path forward is a diplomatic one
Iran’s attacks on Iraqi bases must be condemned, but America’s response does not have to be – and should not be – a military one. The only responsible path forward is a diplomatic one. The United States can show that attacks against American troops are unacceptable while opening an off-ramp to de-escalation.
Great powers like America do not need to wield the sword to prove their strength; true strength right now would be the world’s most powerful nation choosing restraint and diplomacy. No one disputes America’s military power; but with Trump in office, it is very much in question whether America has the capacity to achieve its goals through peaceful means.
America must start to walk away from the brink right now. The United States should convene an immediate session of the UN security council which includes Iran. That would provide the United States the opportunity to condemn Iran’s actions and rally others to do the same, while also allowing Iranian officials to come to the UN headquarters to participate, thus creating a chance for a quiet meeting between US and Iranian officials. Other diplomatic channels should be pursued as well.
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The United States must continue to enhance security measures to protect US personnel and interests around the world. The missile attacks may be the extent of Iran’s retaliation, but there is certainly no guarantee of that.
There are many other steps Trump could take to change course – rejoin the nuclear deal, reverse sanctions, lift the travel ban on Iranians, etc – but we should have absolutely no faith in the ability or desire of the Trump administration to execute a responsible Iran policy.
This crisis was sparked by Donald Trump. Trump withdrew from the deal that had stopped Iran’s nuclear weapons program, leading Iran to restart its nuclear program. Trump ramped up economic pressure and sent more US troops to the region, and tensions grew. Then the US killed Gen Qassem Suleimani , signaling a significant escalation, to which Iran responded with an attack on Iraqi bases where US and Iraqi troops are stationed.
America is far worse off today towards Iran and in the Middle East than it was when Trump took office
It is up to Congress and the American people to force Trump to adopt a more pragmatic path. For too long Congress has ceded to the executive branch its authority to determine when America goes to war, and the current crisis with Iran is exactly the kind of moment that requires intense coordination between the legislative and executive branches. The president cannot start a war without congressional authorization, and with the erratic Trump in office, Congress must make that clear by cutting off the use of funds for war with Iran.
This is not just about how to de-escalate – it’s about recognizing that America fundamentally needs to change its disastrous course. Even if de-escalation of the acute tensions is possible, the risks will remain as long as the United States pursues a reckless policy. America is far worse off today towards Iran and in the Middle East than it was when Trump took office – even worse off than we were on 1 January 2020. Today, Iran is advancing its nuclear program, America has suspended its anti-Isis campaign, Iraq’s parliament has voted to evict US troops from the country, and we are in a dangerous military standoff with Iran.
Digging out of this hole will be difficult and this administration is not capable of it. Over the long run, future administrations will need to reorient America’s goals and policies. America needs to re-enter the nuclear deal and begin negotiations to strengthen it; work with partners like Iraq – without a large US troop presence – in countering potential threats like a resurgence of Isis; and adopt a broader regional policy that focuses on protecting US interests and standing up for human rights and democracy rather than picking sides in a regional civil war between dictatorships like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Achieving US goals in the region will not be possible with a mere de-escalation of tensions – we need to find a new path towards Iran and the Middle East.
