US 2024 polls: Trump leads Georgia Republican primary poll despite Fulton County election interference charges

The latest poll has revealed that former president Donald Trump is still leading his Republican rivals in Georgia – despite being indicted in Fulton County over his efforts to overturn his election loss in the state.

The poll, conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, asked 807 likely Republican primary voters in the state who they would vote for in the presidential primary.

Mr Trump earned 57 per cent of the vote, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailed behind the former president with 15 per cent.

The next highest share went to undecided voters who made up 14 per cent, while other GOP candidates – including former vice president Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Francis Suarez – didn’t even break out of the single digits.

According to the AJC, when asking the likely GOP primary voters who they would support in a race between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president still held a 33-point lead over the Florida governor.

Key Points

• Biden is ‘old,’ Trump is ‘corrupt’: New poll has ominous signs for both in possible 2024 rematch

• Most Americans think Trump weaponized justice system

• Polling figures may worsen as voters tune into the news ahead of the election

• 51 per cent of Americans believe Trump’s guilty in federal election subversion case

• 59 per cent said they think trial should occur before GOP primaries

New poll shows Trump leads GOP rivals in Georgia despite election interference indictment

16:12 , Kelly Rissman

The latest poll has revealed that former president Donald Trump is still leading his Republican rivals in Georgia – despite being indicted in Fulton County over his efforts to overturn his election loss in the state.

The poll, conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, asked 807 likely Republican primary voters in the state who they would vote for in the presidential primary.

Mr Trump earned 57 per cent of the vote, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailed behind the former president with 15 per cent.

The next highest share went to undecided voters who made up 14 per cent, while other GOP candidates – including former vice president Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Francis Suarez – didn’t even break out of the single digits.

According to the AJC, when asking the likely GOP primary voters who they would support in a race between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president still held a 33-point lead over the Florida governor.

Read more:

New poll shows Trump still leads GOP rivals in Georgia after indictment

Trump slumps while Pence and DeSantis get surprising poll boost after first GOP debate

13:00 , Andrew Feinberg

Support for former president Donald Trump among Republican primary voters dipped slightly after the ex-president skipped out on the first debate among GOP presidential hopefuls last week, according to a new poll from Emerson College.

The survey, which was conducted from 25 to 26 August, found just 50 per cent of GOP primary voters expressing an intention to vote for Mr Trump. That’s a six-point drop from a similar Emerson survey conducted before last week’s Milwaukee, Wisconsin debate.

But multiple candidates who participated in the face-off saw gains in the same survey compared with the drop in support for Mr Trump.

Ex-Trump administration UN Ambassador Nikki Haley saw a five-point boost in her polling, from 2 per cent to 5 per cent post-debate.

Read more:

Trump slumps while Pence and DeSantis get poll boost after first GOP debate

08:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Susan Grant, a 66-year-old retired office manager for a nonprofit physician membership association from Westfield, Indiana, said she sees Mr Biden as “very weak” and doesn’t agree with his policies. Mr Trump, meanwhile, is “extremely divisive, and I think that’s bad for our country.”

“There’s this whole thing, in the Bible, ‘A house divided against itself cannot stand,’ and all of the division that has just been promoted and pushed is just damaging to our country,” Ms Grant said. “I’m very conservative with values, with economic things. But, personally, I don’t think Trump’s a very good person.”

Ms Grant described herself as a “hold your nose” Trump voter twice before. If he’s the GOP nominee against Mr Biden, she said, “I probably would do it a third time. But I would not be happy.”

“I’m also wondering if it’s what we need for a third party,” Ms Grant said. “Maybe it’s the push. I don’t know.”

06:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

For Mr Trump, meanwhile, the top comments among Republicans include the generally positive (15 per cent) along with things like “strong” (11 per cent) and mentions of America or patriotism (8 per cent), along with mentions of the presidency or leadership (6 per cent).

Even some Republicans use negative words to describe Mr Trump, though, including labels such as “loudmouth” or “angry” (7 per cent). Others mentioned arrogance or pompousness (6 per cent), narcissism (5 per cent) or other generally negative comments (6 per cent).

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to cite corruption (25 per cent to 4 per cent) and dishonesty (12 per cent to 4 per cent) to describe Mr Trump. Seven per cent of Democrats mention racism, bigotry, homophobia or misogyny among their top words to describe the former president. Those words were hardly invoked by any Republicans in the poll.

04:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Annie Doerr, a 60-year-old retiree from suburban Atlanta who described herself as a moderate Republican, said of Mr Trump, “I thought some of his policies were good for Americans, but he’s just too much of a distraction.”

Ms Doerr had problems with the president, too, comparing him to what she had seen while caring for her 95-year-old father.

“He reminded me a lot of Biden, just things that come out of (Biden’s) mouth,” Ms Doerr said.

“I just don’t think he’s fit to be president for four more years,” she added. ”He may have been when he first ran, but not now.”

The poll also illustrated familiar ideological divides. It found that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to use words like “slow” and “confused” to describe Mr Biden, 25 per cent to 7 per cent, as well as words like “corrupt” and “crooked” (14 per cent to 0 per cent) and “weak” or “unqualified” (9 per cent to 2 per cent).

02:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Mr Haith blamed Mr Biden’s economic policies for his cash net worth declining at least about $150,000 and said the president “just needs to retire and get on with it.”

Though he had some kind words for Mr Trump, Mr Haith was also critical of the former president.

“I really like what he did, and I like the decisions that he made,” said Mr Haith, who added that, at first, ”I really liked that gruffness about him.” But those feelings have cooled, he said, in part because Mr Trump has what Mr Haith described as “a typical New York, arrogant attitude.”

“I’m not going to support him anymore,” he said. “I’m done with him.”

Tuesday 29 August 2023 00:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Mr Biden’s reelection campaign said the president’s age is not a top motivator for voters, especially compared to the administration’s policy accomplishments or key issues like abortion. It also noted that perceptions of the president and Democrats were not strong before last year’s midterms — only to have the party defy expectations.

A Trump campaign spokesman did not answer messages seeking comment, but the former president has previously used his indictments to go on the political offensive, telling supporters at rallies, “I’m being indicted for you.”

Larry Haith, a 73-year-old Idahoan and retired president and general manager of an auto parts firm, is a Republican who described Mr Biden for the poll as an “idiot” and called Mr Trump “arrogant.” He said he doesn’t plan on voting for either next year.

Monday 28 August 2023 22:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Rami Marsha, a 58-year-old CEO of a manufacturing company in Agoura Hills, California, is a registered Democrat who voted for Mr Trump in 2016 and for Mr Biden in 2020 — but says he’d likely leave the presidential race portion of his ballot blank if those two square off again in 2024.

“I think he might be having some dementia, and I don’t think he has the power to run the country,” Mr Marsha said of Mr Biden. But he was equally blunt about Mr Trump: “I’ve had enough of him.”

That’s a fairly common sentiment. The poll shows that only 24 per cent of Americans overall want to see Mr Biden run again, while 30 per cent say the same about Trump — and majorities say they are reluctant to support them if they are nominated again.

Also, 62 per cent of Americans say they have an unfavorable opinion of Mr Trump; 52 per cent say the same about Mr Biden.

Trump drops 6 points after skipping debate as Pence, Haley, and DeSantis see boost

Monday 28 August 2023 20:34 , Gustaf Kilander

Former President Donald Trump dropped a few points after skipping the first GOP primary debate, an Emerson College poll shows.

The poll was conducted between 25 and 26 August and found that half of all Republican primary voters said they intended to support Mr Trump, down from 56 per cent in Emerson’s poll ahead of the debate.

The biggest increase in support was for former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who went from two to seven per cent.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis went from 10 to 12 per cent and former Vice President Mike Pence went from three to seven per cent.

While 27 per cent of voters said entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy won the debate, his support went from 10 to nine per cent, Emerson found.

Monday 28 August 2023 20:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Another 10 per cent give generally negative comments about the president, and 6 per cent use words like “corrupt” and “crooked.” Just 6 per cent offer words like “president” and “leader,” and 5 per cent use those like “strong” and “capable” — the top positive comments made about Mr Biden.

Mr Biden’s age was referenced frequently even among Democrats, 28 per cent of whom mention it — a significantly higher percentage than those who point to the presidency or leadership (11 per cent) or strength and capability (11 per cent).

Mr Trump’s negative comments center not on age but on his moral standing and conduct, along with things like “loudmouth” and “angry” (6 per cent), “crazy” and “dangerous” (6 per cent) and “narcissist” (6 per cent). Some 5 per cent use words like “strong” and “capable.”

Monday 28 August 2023 18:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

“He looks like he needs to be someone’s kindly grandpa on the arm, not someone at the wheel of power,” Justin Campbell, a 27-year-old Democrat and security guard in the Brookhaven area of Mississippi, said of Mr Biden. He was even more negative about Mr Trump, though, saying that the former president “acts like a kindergartner when people tell him ‘no.’”

Mr Campbell suggested that Mr Trump reads so little about policy and national security that he might be “functionally illiterate.” He said he plans to vote for Mr Biden next year and, “I eagerly await Donald Trump being in jail.”

Such sentiments were common. Fully 26 per cent of respondents use words like “old” or “outdated” to describe Mr Biden, and another 15 per cent mention things like “slow” and “confused.”

Monday 28 August 2023 16:00 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

For Mr Biden, the largest share of US adults — including both Democrats and Republicans — mentioned his age. At 80, the Democratic president is just three years older than Mr Trump, but many Americans expressed real concerns about his ability to continue as president.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, has been indicted in four cases featuring 91 total criminal counts and elicits words such as “corrupt” and “crooked” (named by 15 per cent), along with “bad” and other generally negative comments (11 per cent). Not far behind are words like “liar” and “dishonest” (8 per cent). Another 8 per cent offered generally positive comments like “good,” though.

A deeper look doesn’t improve things much for Mr Biden or Mr Trump. And while many of the criticisms reflect a familiar partisan divide, the poll shows neither man is immune to criticism from within his own party.

Biden is ‘old,’ Trump is ‘corrupt’: New poll has ominous signs for both in possible 2024 rematch

Monday 28 August 2023 13:34 , Will Weissert, Emily Swanson, Darlene Superville, AP

Old. Confused. Corrupt. Dishonest.

Those are among the top terms Americans use when they’re asked to describe President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the Republican best positioned to face him in next year’s election.

Unflattering portraits of both emerge clearly in a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which asked an open-ended question about what comes to mind when people think of them.

Read more:

Biden is ‘old,’ Trump is ‘corrupt’: New poll has ominous signs for possible rematch

Most Americans think Trump weaponized justice system

Saturday 26 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While Mr Trump has been arguing that the Biden administration has been weaponizing the justice system, more Americans think Mr Trump is guilty of this. Fifty-three per cent of Americans said that the Trump administration used the Department of Justice to go after political enemies without evidence, compared to 45 per cent who said the same about the Biden White House.

But 44 per cent of Americans — 20 per cent of Democrats and 40 per cent of independents — said the indictment of Mr Trump was an attempt to get an advantage for Mr Biden.

The poll also measured the approval ratings of Mr Trump and Mr Biden in connection to the cases against the former president. Mr Trump received a net favourability rating of -31 per cent while Mr Biden received -9 per cent.

Polling figures may worsen as voters tune into the news ahead of the election

Saturday 26 August 2023 14:00 , Gustaf Kilander

A potential issue for the former president is that there are still many Americans who know little about the allegations against him, meaning that his polling figures may worsen as voters tune into the news ahead of the election. Between a quarter and a third of respondents in the poll said they don’t understand the charges against Mr Trump well.

If Mr Trump is convicted in the federal election subversion case, 50 per cent of Americans say he should go to prison, including 87 per cent of Democrats, 11 per cent of Republicans and 51 per cent of independents.

When asked if the federal election subversion case was based on a “fair evaluation of the evidence”, 59 per cent of Americans agreed. Twenty-three per cent of Republicans said the indictment was fair, while the figure for Democrats was 89 per cent and 64 per cent for independents.

51 per cent of Americans believe Trump’s guilty in federal election subversion case

Saturday 26 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Trump has problems when it comes to the number of Americans who believe he’s guilty in the federal election subversion case — 51 per cent believe he is. That includes 88 per cent of Democrats, 14 per cent of Republicans and 53 per cent of independents.

Forty-four per cent of Americans said that a conviction of Mr Trump in the federal election subversion case wouldn’t affect their willingness to support Mr Trump, while 32 per cent said the outcome of the trial would affect how they voted, meaning that Mr Trump may lose support in a highly polarized race.

Meanwhile, 13 per cent — a group made up mostly of GOP voters — said a conviction would make them more likely to vote for Mr Trump.

59 per cent said they think trial should occur before GOP primaries

Saturday 26 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The American people as a whole agree with the timeline of the Department of Justice — 59 per cent said they think the trial should occur before the GOP primaries and 61 per cent said they think it should take place before the general election.

There’s a large partisan split between the parties with 89 per cent of Democrats saying the trial should take place before the general election, but only 33 per cent of Republicans agreeing. And among the most important group to win over in an election — independents — 63 per cent say the trial should happen before the election.

After Mr Trump’s indictment in Florida regarding his alleged mishandling of classified documents, only 48 per cent of independents said the trial in that case should happen before the election.

Numbers moving in negative direction for Trump

Friday 25 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Compared to a previous Ipsos survey from June, the numbers are moving in a negative direction for Mr Trump, specifically regarding the timeline of a trial and whether Mr Trump should be imprisoned if he’s convicted.

The more recent poll was conducted between 18 and 21 August, about two and a half weeks after the second federal indictment against Mr Trump was handed down and some days following the former president being charged on 13 counts in Fulton County, Georgia.

With 1,032 respondents, the poll had a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

The poll also found that most Americans think Mr Trump should stand trial before the 2024 election. Federal prosecutors have suggested a trial date of 2 January 2024 for the DoJ’s 2020 election case while Mr Trump’s lawyers have argued that the trial should wait until April 2026, the latter giving Mr Trump ample time to attempt to get re-elected, possibly return to the West Wing and shut down the case against him.

New poll spells big trouble for Trump after charges in Georgia case

Friday 25 August 2023 18:12 , Gustaf Kilander

The indictments against Donald Trump may help him get the Republican presidential nomination, but they’re harming his prospects of winning the general election against President Joe Biden.

That’s among the results of a new poll from Politico Magazine and Ipsos which has revealed that the American people are taking the cases against Mr Trump seriously, with the survey revealing the electorate’s particular focus on the 2020 election subversion proscution brought by the Department of Justice.

The poll also shows that most Americans remain sceptical of Mr Trump’s arguments that the cases against him have no merit and that they’re part of a politically motivated witch hunt and a weaponization of the justice system.

Read more:

New poll spells big trouble for Trump after charges in Georgia case

Ramaswamy passes DeSantis in bookie’s odds after debate

Thursday 24 August 2023 13:55 , Gustaf Kilander

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has surpassed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the odds of a leading bookmaker to take the second spot in the Republican primary behind former President Donald Trump following the first debate.

Mr Ramaswamy, 38, was both booed and cheered in Milwaukee on Wednesday night as he made several controversial statements, calling the “climate change agenda” a “hoax” and arguing that the US should cease all aid to Ukraine.

Mr Trump was in the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average ahead of Wednesday night’s initial GOP debate, which he chose not to attend.

Mr Trump led with 52.1 per cent support, ahead of Mr DeSantis with 15.2 per cent and Mr Ramaswamy with 9.7 per cent.

Ahead of the debate, gambling giant Betway had Mr Trump as the favourite to win the nomination, with odds of 7/20, while Mr DeSantis was on 6/1 and Mr Ramaswamy was on 7/1.

By the morning after the debate, Mr DeSantis’s odds were at 8/1 and Mr Ramaswamy was at 6/1, while Mr Trump’s odds remained the same.

Trump far ahead as debate he won’t attend draws near

Wednesday 23 August 2023 19:55 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is in the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average ahead of Wednesday night’s initial GOP debate, which he has announced he won’t attend.

Mr Trump leads with 52.1 per cent support, ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 15.2 per cent and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 9.7 per cent.

Former Vice President Mike Pence comes in at 4.3 per cent, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is at 3.6 per cent with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the ex-governor of South Carolina, has the backing of 3.4 per cent.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is supported by 3.3 per cent, ex-Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson receives 0.7 per cent while North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum gets 0.4 per cent support.

At the bottom of the pack, former Texas Rep and CIA agent Will Hurd gets 0.3 per cent and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez gets 0.3 per cent.

‘Insanely cultish’: Trump voters trust ex-president more than family and friends, poll finds

Tuesday 22 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

A YouGov/CBS News poll has found that Trump supporters trust the former president more as a source of true information than their family, friends, and religious leaders.

The poll, conducted between 16 and 18 August, included 2,061 respondents.

When asked who they feel tells them the truth, 71 per cent said Mr Trump, 63 per cent said family and friends, members of the conservative media received 56 per cent, and religious leaders got 42 per cent.

Associate professor of global politics at University College London Brian Klaas tweeted: “Trump voters believe Trump is more likely to tell them the truth than their friends and family. Again: to understand the modern GOP, you need to understand what an authoritarian cult of personality is, because that’s what it has become.”

Tom Nichols of The Atlantic simply tweeted: “Insanely cultish.”

Iowa poll finds caucusgoers less concerned about electability

Monday 21 August 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Forty per cent of the respondents in a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll said they had already decided which candidate to support while 52 per cent said they remained open to changing who they’re backing.

Seven per cent said they were only considering a single candidate, 17 per cent were thinking about two, while 19 per cent said three, and 55 per cent four or more.

Twenty-nine per cent said it was most important to back a candidate who could win a general election, while 65 per cent said it was more important to find someone who agreed with them on the issues.

Georgia indictment boosts Trump’s Iowa support

Monday 21 August 2023 20:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Sixty-three per cent of likely Iowa caucusgoers has said in a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll that they would back Donald Trump as their first or second choice, or that they were considering supporting him.

For Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, that number of 61 per cent.

The same poll found that Mr Trump’s recent Georgia indictment led to a 12 per cent rise in the number of people planning on or considering backing him.

Trump leads DeSantis in Iowa

Monday 21 August 2023 16:53 , Gustaf Kilander

Former President Donald Trump is leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among likely Iowa caucusgoers, 42 to 19 per cent, according to a new poll.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott came in third with nine per cent in the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

It included 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and was conducted between 13-17 August.

Both former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence received six per cent.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie got five per cent, while four per cent said they were planning on backing entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Trump extends lead among Republicans as DeSantis slips further back

Sunday 20 August 2023 20:31 , John Bowden

Florida Gov Ron DeSantis is seeing his support in the Republican primary race crater as rivals gain ground against him while former President Donald Trump’s dominance over the party appears to be holding steady.

A new CBS News poll of likely Republican primary voters across the country shows Mr DeSantis trending downwards, currently at 16 per cent after dropping seven percentage points over a two-month span. In the time since CBS polled voters in June, the governor has slipped from 23 per cent while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has surged into third place.

And Donald Trump is celebrating. Read more:

Trump extends lead among Republicans as DeSantis slips further back, new poll shows

Biden’s approval rating on the economy stagnates despite slowing inflation, AP-NORC poll shows

Friday 18 August 2023 20:24 , Josh Boak, Emily Swanson, AP

President Joe Biden has devoted the past several weeks to promoting the positive impacts of his policies — but his efforts have yet to meaningfully register with the public.

Only 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, slightly lower than the 42% who approve of his overall performance, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Both figures are close to where Biden’s approval numbers have stood for about the past year and a half, including just two months ago. Signs of an improving economic outlook have done little to sway how people feel about the Democratic president as he gears up for a 2024 reelection campaign that could pit him against his predecessor and 2020 opponent, Republican Donald Trump.

Read more:

Biden’s approval rating on the economy stagnates despite slowing inflation

Trump claims Fox News conspiring against his 2024 campaign with negative polls and worst ‘orange’ chin photos

Friday 18 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump has taken to lashing out at Fox News, claiming that the network is working with other Republican candidates to figure out who can beat him in the GOP primary, while using unflattering “orange” photos of him and negative polls.

The former president initially took to Truth Social to say that the network is “going all out, just as they did in 2016, to figure who in this very large, but failing Republican field, can beat your favorite President, Donald John Trump”.

Read more:

Trump attacks Fox for using ‘worst’ photos of him: ‘Especially the big orange one’

Support for Robert F Kennedy Jr dropping in Democratic Primary

Friday 18 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Support is dropping for the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr in the Democratic primary, polls show.

A poll by Quinnipiac University released on Wednesday revealed that Mr Kennedy is supported by 13 per cent of Democrats, a drop of 3.5 per cent compared to June.

The recent poll was conducted between 10 and 14 August and included 1,632 likely voters. It showed a slight increase in support for Marianne Williamson, the self-help author who also ran for president in 2020.

Her support increased from eight per cent in June to nine per cent in August.

Support for President Joe Biden increased from 70 to 72 per cent.

In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Mr Kennedy received 20 per cent in April, 16.8 per cent in June and 13.3 per cent in August.

Polling ‘reflect hardening among Independents against Trump'

Friday 18 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander

“Trump needs to embody the voters’ grievances and not his own grievances,” Anti-Trump Republican strategist Sarah Longwell added. “Anytime he’s talking about 2020 he’s looking backwards and the voters get more excited about looking forward.”

Historian Aaron Aster wrote, “The key item in this poll is that 53% will ‘definitely not’ vote for Trump. 43% will ‘definitely not’ vote for Biden. (10-11% ‘probably’ won’t vote for each, respectively). The ‘definitely’ numbers are more important at this stage bc they set the parameters of possible outcomes.”

While he added that “early General Election polling is mostly hot garbage because lots of people pay little attention at this point,” he noted that “the ‘definite’ numbers are more likely to pick up the hard ceiling. Yes, those numbers can change a bit too. But in this case, they reflect hardening among Independents against Trump – and a small but decisive group of non-Trump GOPers. And less hard-core anti-Biden among Dems”.

“A lot of people who really don’t want to vote for Biden but despise Trump will likely vote Biden in the end,” the historian speculated.

‘There is a meaningful number of voters who have voted for Trump twice and can’t vote for him again'

Friday 18 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander

A number of Republicans have argued that the party must choose a new standard-bearer as Mr Trump’s standing with the public at large has only gotten worse since the 2020 election following the Capitol riot and the chaos around him, specifically in connection to his mounting legal problems and the litany of felony charges he faces.

Anti-Trump Republican strategist Sarah Longwell told the AP: “There is a meaningful number of voters who have voted for Trump twice and can’t vote for him again after all of this.”

Comparatively, according to the polling from The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 43 per cent said they definitely wouldn’t vote for President Joe Biden, in addition to 11 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t.

‘They purposely show the absolutely worst pictures of me’

Friday 18 August 2023 03:00 , Oliver O’Connell

On Thursday morning, the former president further wrote about the network’s morning show: “Why doesn’t Fox and Friends show all of the Polls where I am beating Biden, by a lot. They just won’t do it!”

He followed that by complaining: “Also, they purposely show the absolutely worst pictures of me, especially the big “orange” one with my chin pulled way back. They think they are getting away with something, they’re not. Just like 2016 all over again…And then they want me to debate!”

Mr Trump has not yet confirmed whether or not he will participate in the first Republican primary debate to be hosted by Fox News and scheduled for 23 August.

‘They use only the most negative polls, which are still great for me'

Friday 18 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Trump ranted at Fox News: “They use only the most negative polls, which are still great for me, and do everything possible to show that they still have a chance. They even pull out nice guy Marc Thiessen to do contortions with numbers that just don’t exist. On top of all that, I am the only one beating, by a lot, Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST ‘P’ EVER!”

Mr Thiessen, a Washington Post columnist, Fox News commentator, and former White House director of speechwriting under George W Bush, wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, on Wednesday that “64 per cent of Americans say they definitely or probably will not vote for Trump in 2024 (53 per cent definitely + 11 per cent probably). Like watching a slow-moving train wreck for the GOP”.

Trump claims Fox News conspiring against his 2024 campaign with negative polls and worst ‘orange’ chin photos

Thursday 17 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump has taken to lashing out at Fox News, claiming that the network is working with other Republican candidates to figure out who can beat him in the GOP primary, while using unflattering “orange” photos of him and negative polls.

The former president initially took to Truth Social to say that the network is “going all out, just as they did in 2016, to figure who in this very large, but failing Republican field, can beat your favorite President, Donald John Trump”.

Read more:

Trump attacks Fox for using ‘worst’ photos of him: ‘Especially the big orange one’

Biden's approval rating on the economy stagnates despite slowing inflation, AP-NORC poll shows

Thursday 17 August 2023 19:30 , Josh Boak, Emily Swanson, AP

President Joe Biden has devoted the past several weeks to promoting the positive impacts of his policies — but his efforts have yet to meaningfully register with the public.

Only 36% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, slightly lower than the 42% who approve of his overall performance, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Both figures are close to where Biden’s approval numbers have stood for about the past year and a half, including just two months ago. Signs of an improving economic outlook have done little to sway how people feel about the Democratic president as he gears up for a 2024 reelection campaign that could pit him against his predecessor and 2020 opponent, Republican Donald Trump.

Read more:

Biden's approval rating on the economy stagnates despite slowing inflation, AP-NORC poll shows

Support for Robert F Kennedy Jr dropping in Democratic Primary

Thursday 17 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Support is dropping for the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr in the Democratic primary, polls show.

A poll by Quinnipiac University released on Wednesday revealed that Mr Kennedy is supported by 13 per cent of Democrats, a drop of 3.5 per cent compared to June.

The recent poll was conducted between 10 and 14 August and included 1,632 likely voters. It showed a slight increase in support for Marianne Williamson, the self-help author who also ran for president in 2020.

Her support increased from eight per cent in June to nine per cent in August.

Support for President Joe Biden increased from 70 to 72 per cent.

In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Mr Kennedy received 20 per cent in April, 16.8 per cent in June and 13.3 per cent in August.

17 per cent of Americans have ‘great deal’ of confidence in DoJ

Thursday 17 August 2023 15:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults — 17% — say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the people running the Justice Department. The low level of confidence spans the political spectrum, with just 26% of Democrats, 14% of independents and 7% of Republicans saying they have a great deal of confidence in the federal law enforcement agency. About half of Americans have “only some” confidence in DOJ, while about a third have “hardly any confidence at all.” Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to have hardly any confidence in the Justice Department, 48% to 18%.

“Trump is obviously running for president and the sitting administration is pushing to have their political rival arrested and put in jail,” said Cary Arnold, a 56-year-old Republican from Eldersburg, Maryland. “Just on the surface that’s a very, very bad look. That’s something that you would expect to see in third world countries that are run by dictators.”

Trump’s actions did not cross the line to merit criminal charges, he said.

“I have not seen anything that seemed to be illegal,” Arnold said. “I know people have said that he did things illegally, but none of the things that they’ve said make any sense.”

62 per cent of Americans have unfavourable view of Trump

Thursday 17 August 2023 12:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Overall, 35% of Americans have a favorable view of Trump and 62% unfavorable. Among Republicans, though, seven in 10 view the former president favorably, and about 6 in 10 say they want him to make another run for the White House.

The poll was conducted Aug. 10-14 , before Trump and 18 of his allies were indicted Monday in Georgia over their efforts to overturn the state’s election results but with strong indications that charges were imminent. At the time of the survey, 51% of U.S. adults believed Trump acted illegally in that case, including 16% of Republicans. That’s consistent with an AP-NORC poll conducted in June.

Trump has denied wrongdoing and says the charges against him are politically motivated as he seeks a rematch against Democratic President Joe Biden.

Americans are divided along party lines over Trump’s actions in election cases, AP-NORC poll shows

Thursday 17 August 2023 09:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Americans are deeply divided along party lines in their views of President Donald Trump‘s actions in the most recent criminal cases brought against him, a new poll shows, with about half saying his alleged attempt to interfere in Georgia‘s 2020 vote count was illegal.

The poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted before Monday’s charges in the Georgia case, also shows that about half of Americans — 53% — approve of the Justice Department indicting Trump over his efforts to remain in office after losing the 2020 election.

The poll finds 85% of Democrats approve of the criminal charges brought Aug. 2 by Special Counsel Jack Smith, compared with 47% of independents and just 16% of Republicans. Overall, 3 in 10 Americans disapprove, including about two-thirds of Republicans.

The survey suggests that the unprecedented indictments of a former president have done little to shake up a fundamental divide in the electorate: The majority of Americans disapprove of Trump, but he remains popular within the GOP.

Read more:

Americans are divided along party lines over Trump’s actions in election cases, AP-NORC poll shows

Americans largely disagree with Trump’s contention that 2020 election was stolen

Thursday 17 August 2023 06:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Americans largely disagree with Trump’s contention that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Seven in 10 say that Biden was legitimately elected president, a number that’s been consistent in the last year. But among Republicans, 57% say Biden’s election was illegitimate, compared with 32% of independents and 2% of Democrats.

Treasa Howell, a 58-year-old Republican from Springfield, Missouri, said a lot of the accusations against Trump ring true, but she believes they’re motivated more by politics than justice and Trump is being singled out.

“I honestly don’t feel like anybody in the political arena plays 100% fair,” Howell said. “I feel like it was a political indictment, but I absolutely believe it’s true. And that’s my problem with Trump.”

But if Trump wins the GOP nomination and faces a rematch against Biden, she’ll reluctantly vote for him, she said.

The poll of 1,165 adults was conducted using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Americans do not view Trump’s indictments equally

Thursday 17 August 2023 03:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Trump has been indicted four times since April, but Americans do not view the indictments equally.

While about half believe Trump did something illegal when it comes to the Jan. 6 insurrection and the Georgia charges, along with the case involving classified documents found at his home in Florida, only about one-third say Trump acted illegally in allegedly covering up hush money payments to a woman who said he had an affair with her. That was the basis for charges Trump faces in New York City brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Overall, Americans say that Trump’s actions after the 2020 presidential election did more to threaten democracy than to defend it, 54% to 19%. One-quarter of U.S. adults say he did neither. Republicans are split on the impact of Trump’s decisions: 43% say he defended democracy, while 23% say he threatened it. About a third of Republicans say he neither defended nor threatened democracy.

“Trump and a lot of his supporters are saying, ‘They’re just using this to get at him in the election,’” said David Biggar, a 60-year-old Republican from Navarre, Florida who twice voted against Trump. “I think he’s being targeted because he did stuff that he needs to be tried for.”

17 per cent of Americans have ‘great deal’ of confidence in DoJ

Thursday 17 August 2023 00:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults — 17% — say they have “a great deal” of confidence in the people running the Justice Department. The low level of confidence spans the political spectrum, with just 26% of Democrats, 14% of independents and 7% of Republicans saying they have a great deal of confidence in the federal law enforcement agency. About half of Americans have “only some” confidence in DOJ, while about a third have “hardly any confidence at all.” Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to have hardly any confidence in the Justice Department, 48% to 18%.

“Trump is obviously running for president and the sitting administration is pushing to have their political rival arrested and put in jail,” said Cary Arnold, a 56-year-old Republican from Eldersburg, Maryland. “Just on the surface that’s a very, very bad look. That’s something that you would expect to see in third world countries that are run by dictators.”

Trump’s actions did not cross the line to merit criminal charges, he said.

“I have not seen anything that seemed to be illegal,” Arnold said. “I know people have said that he did things illegally, but none of the things that they’ve said make any sense.”

62 per cent of Americans have unfavourable view of Trump

Wednesday 16 August 2023 21:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Overall, 35% of Americans have a favorable view of Trump and 62% unfavorable. Among Republicans, though, seven in 10 view the former president favorably, and about 6 in 10 say they want him to make another run for the White House.

The poll was conducted Aug. 10-14 , before Trump and 18 of his allies were indicted Monday in Georgia over their efforts to overturn the state’s election results but with strong indications that charges were imminent. At the time of the survey, 51% of U.S. adults believed Trump acted illegally in that case, including 16% of Republicans. That’s consistent with an AP-NORC poll conducted in June.

Trump has denied wrongdoing and says the charges against him are politically motivated as he seeks a rematch against Democratic President Joe Biden.

Americans are divided along party lines over Trump’s actions in election cases, AP-NORC poll shows

Wednesday 16 August 2023 18:00 , Linley Sanders, Jonathan J. Cooper, AP

Americans are deeply divided along party lines in their views of President Donald Trump‘s actions in the most recent criminal cases brought against him, a new poll shows, with about half saying his alleged attempt to interfere in Georgia‘s 2020 vote count was illegal.

The poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted before Monday’s charges in the Georgia case, also shows that about half of Americans — 53% — approve of the Justice Department indicting Trump over his efforts to remain in office after losing the 2020 election.

The poll finds 85% of Democrats approve of the criminal charges brought Aug. 2 by Special Counsel Jack Smith, compared with 47% of independents and just 16% of Republicans. Overall, 3 in 10 Americans disapprove, including about two-thirds of Republicans.

The survey suggests that the unprecedented indictments of a former president have done little to shake up a fundamental divide in the electorate: The majority of Americans disapprove of Trump, but he remains popular within the GOP.

Read more:

Americans are divided along party lines over Trump’s actions in election cases, AP-NORC poll shows

DeSantis drops into third place behind Ramaswamy with bookmakers

Wednesday 16 August 2023 17:03 , Gustaf Kilander

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped into third place behind entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in the bookmakers’ odds for who will grab the Republican nomination.

The average odds for Mr DeSantis is now 7.1/1 compared to 7/1 for Mr Ramaswamy, according to Newsweek, which looked at odds compiled by Oddschecker.

Oddschecker included figures from 22 bookmakers, mostly from the UK, taking bets on who will win the GOP nomination.

Why the classified documents case may be damaging to Trump

Wednesday 16 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump’s favourability rating took a hit after he was indicted in June in the Special Counsel’s case against him for allegedly mishandling classified information.

One theory as to why Mr Trump’s ratings took a dip at this point and appeared unaffected by previous scandals is that a lot of information that came out were things the public didn’t know before the year, FiveThirtyEight notes.

The case also impacts an issue important to both Republicans and voters as a whole – national security.

Weekly polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist show that one in ten Americans say it’s the most important issue. It’s third behind the economy – 26 per cent – and healthcare – 13 per cent.

Moreover, GOP voters were twice as likely to say that national security was their top issue compared to their Democratic counterparts, meaning that some members of the GOP may be stunned by the classified documents case in a way that they may not be affected by other sources of Mr Trump’s legal woes.

Indictments may be damaging to Trump, but not in primary polls

Wednesday 16 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While the indictment against the former president if anything appears to be boosting his support among the Republican primary electorate, it may be hurting him with voters overall.

Recent polling indicates that Mr Trump isn’t convincing voters at large that his recent indictments by the Special Counsel’s Office are part of what he likes to call a “witch hunt”.

Voters see his legal woes as serious issues and that his connection to the Capitol Riot warrants criminal charges.

His favourability rating took a dip both as a whole and among Republicans following his indictment for mishandling classified documents, including national security information.

After his indictment in the hush money case in New York, Mr Trump’s net favourability rating rose by 0.7 per cent among Republicans, but it fell by 1.8 per cent after the June indictment and it saw a steeper decline among adults as a whole, FiveThirtyEight notes.

The public opinion of Mr Trump has been fairly stable over the years making even small changes such as this notable.

Trump leads DeSantis by 41 per cent in Morning Consult poll

Wednesday 16 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is leading Ron DeSantis by 41 per cent, according to a new poll conducted between 11 and 13 August by Morning Consult.

Mr Trump has 57 per cent support among the national GOP primary electorate, while Mr DeSantis is backed by 16 per cent.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is supported by nine per cent of possible primary voters, while former Vice President Mike Pence gets seven per cent.

Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott are all at three per cent.

Christie takes second spot from DeSantis in New Hampshire

Wednesday 16 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has swiped the second spot in the upcoming New Hampshire primary from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even as former President Donald Trump remains dominant.

A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows Mr Christie at nine per cent support, while Mr DeSantis is at eight per cent, down from 17 per cent in March. Mr Christie’s lead is within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error. Mr Trump received 49 per cent.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “DeSantis has been the alternative to Trump in Emerson polling this presidential cycle. This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates”.

The Christie campaign has put most of its focus on New Hampshire, while Mr DeSantis and his team have been more focused on Iowa. The Florida governor has still travelled a fair bit to New Hampshire.

Why the classified documents case may be damaging to Trump

Wednesday 16 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump’s favourability rating took a hit after he was indicted in June in the Special Counsel’s case against him for allegedly mishandling classified information.

One theory as to why Mr Trump’s ratings took a dip at this point and appeared unaffected by previous scandals is that a lot of information that came out were things the public didn’t know before the year, FiveThirtyEight notes.

The case also impacts an issue important to both Republicans and voters as a whole – national security.

Weekly polls conducted by YouGov and The Economist show that one in ten Americans say it’s the most important issue. It’s third behind the economy – 26 per cent – and healthcare – 13 per cent.

Moreover, GOP voters were twice as likely to say that national security was their top issue compared to their Democratic counterparts, meaning that some members of the GOP may be stunned by the classified documents case in a way that they may not be affected by other sources of Mr Trump’s legal woes.

Indictments may be damaging to Trump, but not in primary polls

Wednesday 16 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While the indictment against the former president if anything appears to be boosting his support among the Republican primary electorate, it may be hurting him with voters overall.

Recent polling indicates that Mr Trump isn’t convincing voters at large that his recent indictments by the Special Counsel’s Office are part of what he likes to call a “witch hunt”.

Voters see his legal woes as serious issues and that his connection to the Capitol Riot warrants criminal charges.

His favourability rating took a dip both as a whole and among Republicans following his indictment for mishandling classified documents, including national security information.

After his indictment in the hush money case in New York, Mr Trump’s net favourability rating rose by 0.7 per cent among Republicans, but it fell by 1.8 per cent after the June indictment and it saw a steeper decline among adults as a whole, FiveThirtyEight notes.

The public opinion of Mr Trump has been fairly stable over the years making even small changes such as this notable.

Trump leads DeSantis by 41 per cent in Morning Consult poll

Tuesday 15 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is leading Ron DeSantis by 41 per cent, according to a new poll conducted between 11 and 13 August by Morning Consult.

Mr Trump has 57 per cent support among the national GOP primary electorate, while Mr DeSantis is backed by 16 per cent.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is supported by nine per cent of possible primary voters, while former Vice President Mike Pence gets seven per cent.

Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott are all at three per cent.

Christie takes second spot from DeSantis in New Hampshire

Tuesday 15 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has swiped the second spot in the upcoming New Hampshire primary from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis even as former President Donald Trump remains dominant.

A new poll from Emerson College released on Tuesday shows Mr Christie at nine per cent support, while Mr DeSantis is at eight per cent, down from 17 per cent in March. Mr Christie’s lead is within the poll’s 3.4 per cent margin of error. Mr Trump received 49 per cent.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said that “DeSantis has been the alternative to Trump in Emerson polling this presidential cycle. This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates”.

The Christie campaign has put most of its focus on New Hampshire, while Mr DeSantis and his team have been more focused on Iowa. The Florida governor has still travelled a fair bit to New Hampshire.

Ramaswamy beats DeSantis in fight for second in primary poll

Tuesday 15 August 2023 14:00 , Gustaf Kilander

In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.

Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.

Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.

Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee

Tuesday 15 August 2023 08:00 , Gustaf Kilander

As of Monday, Donald Trump was in the lead in the Republican field with 52.7 per cent of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

• Trump: 52.7%

• DeSantis: 14.0%

• Ramaswamy: 7.2%

• Pence: 6.0%

• Haley: 4.0%

• Christie: 2.7%

• Scott: 2.6%

• Burgum: 0.7%

• Hutchinson: 0.5%

• Suarez: 0.2%

• Hurd: 0.1%

Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.

Ramaswamy beats DeSantis in fight for second in primary poll

Monday 14 August 2023 21:18 , Gustaf Kilander

In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.

Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.

Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.

Majority of Republicans want Trump to be nominee

Monday 14 August 2023 18:15 , Gustaf Kilander

As of Monday, Donald Trump was in the lead in the Republican field with 52.7 per cent of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

• Trump: 52.7%

• DeSantis: 14.0%

• Ramaswamy: 7.2%

• Pence: 6.0%

• Haley: 4.0%

• Christie: 2.7%

• Scott: 2.6%

• Burgum: 0.7%

• Hutchinson: 0.5%

• Suarez: 0.2%

• Hurd: 0.1%

Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.

Biden needs to get stronger with his base, Trump with independents, GOP strategist says

Monday 14 August 2023 15:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The closest of all the swing states is set to be Wisconsin, some close to the Biden campaign told Politico.

Wisconsin could be the state where Mr Biden reaches 270 electoral votes followed by Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

A number of those close to the campaign believe that Georgia is only a winnable state with Mr Trump as the Republican nominee. Others say the state could be won regardless of who the GOP puts forward.

GOP strategist Alex Conant told the outlet: “Does he recover his footing with younger voters, with non-white voters? Can he get those numbers back up? If not, it makes states like North Carolina and Nevada really tough for him.”

“For Trump, can he improve his standing with independents? My sense is that he has not so far. If he can’t, due to reminders of January 6, then you could see Pennsylvania fall off the map, maybe Arizona and Georgia get tougher, too,” he added.

Biden fighting dropping enthusiasm in Rust Belt cities ahead of 2024

Monday 14 August 2023 12:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While those in charge of getting the president reelected aren’t overly concerned about Mr Trump’s comeback chances, they told Politico that it will be a close race.

The advisors argue that Mr Biden’s global leadership, his legislative accomplishments and the US’s economic performance after the pandemic will get him another term.

They also note that Mr Trump’s myriad of scandals, mounting legal woes, and extreme stances by MAGA candidates will push away independents and other swing voters.

But they also admit that Mr Trump’s support in swing states remains strong, especially among the white working class.

Mr Trump’s support from unionized workers has also increased despite Mr Biden’s longtime union connections.

The three Rust Belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – all have large cities – Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee – where Mr Biden needs to fight drooping enthusiasm among younger voters and African Americans, specifically among men.

Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Politico that “in the midterms and throughout elections this year, we’ve seen that President Biden’s message is the winning one for 2024. That said, we fully expect this to be a competitive election and will take nothing for granted”.

“We must earn every American’s vote, which is why we’re already investing in our battlegrounds and key voting blocs,” he added.

‘Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play'

Monday 14 August 2023 09:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The Biden campaign is focusing on the three Rust Belt states that the president won back in 2020, five people close to the campaign told Politico.

States in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, are toss-ups, according to the Biden team. They were all narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020.

The Biden allies also believe that Mr Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination.

“Will it probably just be the same states? Yeah, probably,” one individual close to the campaign told the outlet.

But they added that the “abortion issue is alive and well” and that “You have an abortion referendum in places like Florida and Ohio. Well, that makes you take a good look at things. … Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play”.

While the White House has sent Mr Biden and top staff to events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, polling there still shows a close race with Mr Trump.

Last week, a poll from Emerson College had the two at 44 per cent each in Michigan, with Mr Trump in a narrow lead if third-party candidate Cornell West is on the ballot.

A recent poll by Marquette Law School found a 50-50 tie in Wisconsin between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Similarly, a poll by Quinnipiac revealed that Mr Trump was narrowly ahead in the state, 47 to 46 per cent, however within the margin of error for the poll.

Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities

Monday 14 August 2023 06:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Biden’s team also tried to maximize the ways the campaign could reach 270 electoral votes in 2020 by putting states like Georgia and Arizona, states that the president ended up winning, on its list of target states.

While the simplest path to victory was taking back the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016, the Biden team went for states thought to be harder to win to protect against uncertainty, senior Biden adviser Becca Siegel told Politico.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were unexpectedly won by Mr Trump in 2016, and they went for Mr Biden in 2020.

But Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities, with few agreeing with Ms Weingarten’s belief Ohio could be in play and some say winning in Florida is wishful thinking.

While Mr Obama won both of them in 2008 and 2012, they have since experienced a rightward shift.

‘I never count out Ohio'

Monday 14 August 2023 03:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have placed ads in North Carolina and in Florida – a state most recently won by a Democrat on the presidential level in 2012. Barack Obama also won it in 2008, taking it back for Democrats after two straight wins in the state for President George W Bush.

An amendment to restore abortion rights in the Sunshine State could be on the ballot in 2024. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the main rival for the Republican presidential nomination to former President Donald Trump, has recently signed a six-week ban on abortions.

This week in Ohio, now widely considered to have gone from a purple to a red state, voters rejected a proposal intended to limit abortion rights. Some in Mr Biden’s circle now hope that the state could possibly be in play.

Mr Obama won the state twice, as did Mr Bush and Mr Trump.

Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Biden ally, told Politico: “I never count out Ohio”.

“What you saw [this week] in terms of Ohio is that fairness won out,” she added.

Some in Biden team believe abortion rights will open new paths to victory in 2024

Monday 14 August 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While many working on getting President Joe Biden reelected in 2024 think the road to victory looks similar to 2020, some see fresh pathways to remaining in the White House for another four years.

Behind that optimism is the steadfast focus of many voters on abortion rights following the fall of Roe v Wade last year.

The main path to a win is seen as going through the so-called blue wall – the Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan – as well as once again attempting to win states that have recently become more winnable for Democrats such as Georgia and Arizona.

But aides to Mr Biden are now working on winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more.

A top comeback opportunity in North Carolina, a state not won by Democrats on the presidential level since President Barack Obama won it in 2008.

A 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect in the state over the objections of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was overruled after vetoing the bill.

An anonymous Biden campaign official told Politico that it would be “crazy” not to go for North Carolina since Mr Biden lost it by a single percentage point in 2020.

Labor leader says fall of Roe is ‘expanding the map'

Sunday 13 August 2023 21:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, told Politico when Roe v Wade fell, “there was a huge shock of ‘Oh my god, this really happened. They really took away a right’”.

“And as these states have been more and more extremist, you’re seeing more women and families wondering why their government is taking rights away from them. I do think it is expanding the map,” she added.

VIDEO: The Hunter Biden Affair: Epic scandal or nothing-burger?

Sunday 13 August 2023 19:00 , Gustaf Kilander

2024 set to feature ‘the smallest map in the history of American politics'

Sunday 13 August 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Mr Obama’s 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina told Politico that political divisions in the US will create “the smallest map in the history of American politics” in 2024.

That’s because the candidates “are so well-known and the increased political tribalism”.