Trump trailing in polls because people don't want to admit they support him, former press secretary says

Former Trump administration press secretary Sean Spicer has a theory as to why his former boss is trailing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in almost every recent poll.

People do not want to admit they support him — even to family and friends.

Mr Spicer tweeted: “Crucial takeaway in new poll showing why polls will continue to be an issue: ‘only 37% of @realDonaldTrump voters would want their friends and family to know how they had voted while 74% of @JoeBiden supporters are comfortable with it being known.”

The poll Mr Spicer is referencing was conducted by the Democracy Institute, a DC Think Tank for The Daily Express newspaper in the UK.

The phenomenon of voters not revealing their voting preferences to family and friends — silent voters — has had implications for electoral polling and election results in the past.

A series of campaign ads recently released by the DNC, Biden campaign, and anti-Trump Republican groups such as the Lincoln Project, make damning assessments of the administration’s record.

When confronted with theses failures of the current administration, it is understandable that latent supporters may feel embarrassed or ashamed to stick with the president, or merely want to keep their preference quiet. Not all of the people that vote for Donald Trump wear a MAGA hat or attend rallies.

By extension, would not the same individual also be untruthful with a pollster? Will supporters show up at the ballot box that do not show up in polls? Hence, why polling will continue to be an issue.

The president even recently tweeted that "THE SILENT MAJORITY IS STRONGER THAN EVER!!!", referencing the term used by President Richard Nixon.

When every poll shows Mr Biden leading Mr Trump by, at times, double digits, are there actually hidden Trump voters out there?

Every poll bar two aggregated by FiveThirtyEight since the beginning of June has the Democratic Party candidate leading Trump by between three points and 14 points.

The other two polls have the candidates tied at 41 per cent or 46 per cent.

Mr Spicer cites a poll that is not aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, and was carried out exclusively for the British tabloid between 3-5 June, surveying a sample of 1,500 likely voters.

Its results show the Republican beating Mr Biden 48 per cent to 47 per cent, but with 5 per cent currently undecided and a +/- 2.5 per cent margin of error.

The outlet reports that the poll shows significant leads for Mr Trump in swing states, correctly pointing out that could indicate an Electoral College victory, as in 2016.

A CNN/SSRS poll of 1,125 registered voters conducted on approximately the same dates, between 2-5 June, shows Mr Biden leading Mr Trump 55 per cent to 41 per cent.

Polls in individual swing states collated by FiveThirtyEight show Mr Biden comfortably ahead in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Mr Trump’s nine percentage point win in Iowa in 2016 has even been cut to one point in the latest poll there.

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