Trump v. Biden in 2024 is less than inspiring for either party

For the second time in two years, a much-heralded “wave election” has come ashore as a Category 1 ankle wetter. Democrats and Republicans fought their way to another close finish, setting the stage for a 2024 showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Can you feel the electricity in the air?

Probably not. Both parties’ voters are telling pollsters they hope to love someone new by the next election. The president, whose approval ratings sank in his first year and never recovered, had to avoid campaigning in some states for fear of dragging down Democratic candidates. Donald Trump was losing Republican support with his “stop the steal” nonsense and other dramas even before his nutty primary picks spoiled a can’t-miss election.

Americans are ready to turn a page. They’ll be more than ready if 2023 brings the recession that most economists expect. Yet both parties could find themselves marching into the next campaign behind tired old warhorses their own voters don’t want.

This looked unlikely two years ago. Biden ran on an implicit promise to get Trump out of the White House, serve four years and retire. He still may do that. But the wild card is his ego — the same ego that told him he could transform America with a 50-50 Senate. It might tell him that Trump’s candidacy and a still-weak Democratic bench require him, once again, to suit up and save the country.

The notion is wrong but not baseless. Biden’s vice president and heir apparent is more unpopular than he is. Any undiscovered party saviors lurking in the primary field remain undiscovered. Democrats could feel forced to stick with Biden despite his policy baggage and age.

Republicans who want to move beyond Trump are welcoming a wave of converts after the Red Wave that wasn’t. But finding new allies in the media or in opinion polls doesn’t guarantee finding them at voting polls on a February night. Trump’s fans show up for primaries, and they proved in 2016 that they can win without majorities when a crowded field dilutes the opposition. If anti-Trumpers can’t match their turnout and quickly settle on a favorite, the ex-president will cruise to a third straight primary win.

Turning a page in either party will take discipline. Republican primary voters will have to cut off marginal candidates before they fatally weaken real contenders. Waiting too long for spring pruning invites a replay of 2016. Their Democratic counterparts can’t control whether Joe Biden sees an indispensable man in the mirror when he shaves, but they can be prepared to correct him if he does. Younger, sharper candidates are available even if the next Bill Clinton or Barack Obama is not.

Quite aside from policies and personalities, it’s encouraging that Americans don’t see their future in two guys who started grade school during the Truman administration. We don’t enlist the elderly to fly commercial jets or do bypass surgery. Why we put them in the Oval Office to juggle live grenades while unicycling may puzzle future historians.

A generational changing of the guard is coming. The chances that both parties will avoid it for two more years seem remote. If one does, it will need to persuade independents and swing voters —the folks who decide our elections — to choose a candidate who looks like the past over one who looks like the future. It will need a very good story to make that sale.

Michael Smith is a freelance opinion writer in Georgetown, Kentucky.