Trump's coming back to Erie. Why this nook of Pa. is critical to the former president.

Erie County Republican Committee Chair Tom Eddy is well aware of his community's historic role as a crystal ball.

"I look at Erie County as a microcosm of the entire state," he said, citing its diverse economy and demographics. "We mimic the entire state in a very small geographic area."

Its reputation as a bellwether has apparently been noted by Donald Trump's campaign, which has scheduled a rally for the former president at Erie Insurance Arena on Saturday.

Trump and other politicians hoping to win the state's vote would be wise to remember the commonwealth's lone Great Lakes community. Erie is a battleground county in a battleground state, its results often reflective of Pennsylvania as a whole.

"The county can be predictive and we've seen that through multiple, multiple elections," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

"It almost exactly nailed the last election. It was pretty much spot on."

In 2020, Biden beat Trump there by less than a percentage point, with just 1,417 votes separating the two. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen received 1,928 votes.

Four years earlier, Trump edged Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 2 points in Erie County, also a difference of fewer than 2,000 votes.

Libertarian Gary Johnson took 3% of the Erie County vote that year. Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Constitution Party nominee Darrell Castle also combined for about 1%.

Trump received about 6,000 more votes there in 2020 than he did in 2016, but a 3-to-1 deficit in mail-in votes — 36,741 for Biden compared to 11,440 for Trump — tipped the county in the Democrat's favor.

"There's a benefit to going to these different areas," Paleologos said. "It doesn't really behoove Trump to go to a heavily Democratic area or even a heavily Republican area."

To secure a potential rematch with Biden, Trump will first need to survive the GOP primary.

Not everyone is convinced. State Sen. Dan Laughlin, of Millcreek Township, R-3rd Dist., is among those who've expressed doubts about Trump's future as the face of the GOP in the aftermath of a dismal midterms showing for many Trump-endorsed Republicans in Pennsylvania and across the country.

Still, June polling from Quinnipiac University shows Trump with a sizeable head start over his Republican rivals in Pennsylvania. He has support from about half (49%) of all GOP voters in the state, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a distant second place (25%).

Cole Schenley, co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America's Erie chapter and member of Erie County United, believes the former president will have a large crowd in Erie courtesy of residents from surrounding counties and even Ohio, citing Trump's "Grateful Dead-esque" following.

"It's going to be interesting, I think, because of the split in the Republican Party," Schenley said. "I do think that ultimately Donald Trump will take the nomination, unfortunately."

Schenley also expects Trump to face Biden in a 2020 rematch, and to lose again.

Residents of cities like Erie face low wages, high poverty, housing shortages and increasing rent, according to Schenley. They've embraced socialist-leaning candidates such as state Sen. Nikil Saval (D-Philadelphia) and U.S. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) of Pittsburgh in recent elections.

"You have seen progressive wins, you have seen left-wing wins in this state," Schenley said.

"I think as long as Biden is able to pitch a good message, it will counter whatever Trump is trying to sell. And I think that is what Trump does, try to sell you a message rather than follow through on promises."

Erie progressives are planning a food drive the day of Trump's visit as a form of protest, Schenley added.

"We'd rather do something positive than bring the negativity that Trump will," he said.

Erie County Republicans can't formally advocate for anyone in the presidential race this year. Eddy said their bylaws prohibit them from endorsing until after the primary.

In his opinion, Trump and any other Republican seeking the nomination need a plan for combating the inflation that's contributed to the rising costs of groceries and other essentials.

"We're not a rich county," Eddy said. "We've got wealthy people, but most are middle class."

"I think that (inflation) really impacts a family."

Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania state capital bureau. He can be reached at bsiwy@gannett.com or on Twitter at @BruceSiwy.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Donald Trump rally in Erie, PA, July 2023