Trump's indictment circus is a festering albatross the NJ GOP doesn't need | Stile

Donald J. Trump has reaped cash from hotels, glitzy and forgotten Atlantic City casinos, golf courses, steaks — and now his "persecution."

When others face the ignominy of arrest and indictment with measures of fear and grief, Trump sees an opportunity to make money.

"And now, with leaks threatening that [George] Soros' hand-picked Manhattan prosecutor may very well ARREST me at any moment for committing NO CRIME," Trump writes in one email fundraising solicitation targeting Soros, the billionaire Democratic donor. "I think you should know why I will NEVER stop fighting for YOU.''

Most legally troubled politicians stay mum as indictments loom — they let their lawyers do most of the talking. Few have been so bold as Trump. First, he cooked up a frenzy by warning that the indictment is coming, and then, he harnessed the attention for cash. It's been a textbook case straight out of Trump Grift 101.

But what stands as opportunity for Trump spells disaster for moderate Garden State Republicans, who have lived under the shadow of the Bane of Bedminster and his antics for the last seven years.

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Bad baggage for NJ Republicans

As the Trump circus across the Hudson may go full tabloid, Republican officeholders and candidates across the Garden State will be pressed to take sides in the battle for the GOP's soul. They face a choice: Do you stick with Trump in his time of travail and rally around his self-martyrdom? Or do you condemn him for the sake of the party's brand and future?

New Jersey Republicans have been forced into this position for several election cycles now, and they are exhausted.

"Our candidates want this to be a referendum on Phil Murphy and the Democrats in Trenton," said Michael DuHaime, a veteran Republican political strategist who managed both of Chris Christie's campaigns for governor, referring to the 2023 legislative elections this fall. "They do not want to have to wear Donald Trump like an albatross around their neck."

And it will also extend the party's challenge of competing in the voter-rich suburbs, where moderate and independent voters, especially women, were appalled by Trump's misogyny and coarse conduct. These same voters are also weary of Trump's never-ending theatrics. The resurrection of the former president's tawdry hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels will only further deepen the disgust.

For the past couple of years, state Senate Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, R-Union, has been sounding the alarm about Trump and the destructive burden he places on Republicans candidates competing in swing districts. He noted that Cranford, Westfield and Summit — three communities in his district — switched from Republican to Democratic control after Trump was elected to the presidency in 2016.

"The more Trump is in the news, the more Trump is the figurehead for the Republican Party," Bramnick said. "That's the brand we don't need."

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Gas on a MAGA fire?

Still, Trump's longtime supporters feel that the indictment — whenever it may land — will further solidify support for Trump within his MAGA base. They also hope it could further extend his lead among potential GOP hopefuls for the Republican nomination in 2024.

They're dismissive of New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg's case as a flimsy attempt to criminalize a "private settlement, which is done all the time," notes state Sen. Joe Pennacchio, R-Morris, a co-chair of Trump's New Jersey campaign in 2020.

"I think it will be a net gain," Pennacchio said. "People are going to look at [the indictment] and say, "If they can do this to the president of the United States, what chance does an ordinary citizen have?"

The indictment also will likely fuel a sense of persecution among Trump's hard-right supporters. Mike Crispi, the right-wing host of the podcast "Mike Crispi Unafraid," who ran an unsuccessful primary challenge to Rep. Chris Smith in the 4th Congressional District last year, cast the possible indictment as part of a concerted strategy by the legal and liberal establishments to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.

The looming case against Trump in Fulton County, Georgia, and the federal investigations into his handling of classified documents and his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol have all been cast as part of a determined effort to destroy Trump — and worse.

"They don't care about ripping up the whole system," Crispi said during a recent interview with Roger Stone, the shadowy political operative who was facing a three-year prison sentence for lying to Congress and witness tampering until Trump pardoned him in December 2020 before leaving office. "Seems like they're ready to implode it just to keep Donald Trump out of the White House."

"He's an existential threat to the two party duopoly that's busy destroying this country," Stone replied. "What they don't understand is with each criminal charge, he becomes more popular and more powerful."

Between March 16 and 20, the Monmouth University Poll found Trump's power growing nationally. Although most responses to the poll were collected after the news emerged that an indictment was pending, it found Trump gathering strength in almost every Republican Party constituency — especially among the MAGA base. The poll found Republicans preferring Trump over his closest likely rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 47% to 27%; in February, they were tied at 33%.

“The movement Trump created is sticking by their standard-bearer. That’s enough for Trump to overcome weaker support among the less MAGA portion of the Republican electorate, at least for now,” said Patrick Murray, the poll director.

That MAGA power has forced more traditional right-of-center establishment Republicans into contortions on the campaign trail. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. ran as a supporter of "Trump's agenda" during a crowded Republican primary in the 7th Congressional District last year. Since his election, Kean has placed his focus on less ideologically charged issues, such as transportation. An ongoing Trump circus into 2024 only increases the likelihood of the Trump albatross weighing him down in his sophomore reelection run next year.

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'Zero chance that this helps'

Still, some argue that any momentum Trump had will dissipate once he's booked and tagged as the first former United States president who was indicted and formally arrested.

Not a good look, DuHaime says.

"There's zero chance that this helps, and make no mistake: Being indicted is not good for your campaign," he said. "There's nobody who is not with him that's being won over by this. The only thing happening from this is some support will harden, some supporters will become more skeptical and leave, and the people who already left will realize that they made the right decision."

For New Jersey Republicans, two factors — a powerful "red wave" that never crested in last year's midterms and the colossal failure of Trump-backed candidates — should prompt leaders to convene a "frank discussion" about the direction of the party.

"It doesn't matter whether you love Donald Trump or loathe Donald Trump — Republicans need to focus on winning and increasing our chances of winning," said state Sen. Declan O'Scanlon, R-Monmouth. "And it does not seem that Donald Trump woos the swing voters that we need."

Meanwhile, the Trump Persecution Fundraising Machine motors on, warning ominously about the determination of the "deep state's prosecutors" to destroy him.

"They're hoping that I'll throw in the towel and end our America First campaign," reads one recent email plea. It includes a link to a video detailing his 10-step plan to fight back.

"Please watch my plan to DISMANTLE the Deep State," it reads, followed by The Ask. "And then make a contribution to turn our plan into a reality — for 1,500% impact."

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com 

Twitter: @politicalstile

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Donald Trump indictment spells doom and gloom for NJ Republicans