Do Trump's rallies give Republican candidates a boost? It's a mixed record
WASHINGTON – After Kentucky's Republican Gov. Matt Bevin appeared to have lost his reelection bid Tuesday, President Donald Trump tweeted that his margin of defeat would have been much larger if he had not held a rally in Lexington on Monday to encourage supporters to get out and vote.
"Our big Kentucky Rally on Monday night had a massive impact on all of the races," the president said in a tweet early Wednesday. "The increase in Governors race was at least 15 points, and maybe 20!"
Bevin has since called for a re-canvassing.
During the rally Monday, before the election, Trump shared his fear that the news media would blame him if Bevin lost as he implored them to get out and vote.
"If you lose, it sends a really bad message," Trump told the packed arena. "You can't let that happen to me."
Mixed results
Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale said the president had "just about dragged Gov. Matt Bevin across the finish line" and helped him perform "stronger than expected." And Parscale said in another statement that Trump's endorsement "undoubtedly had an impact and helped" Republican Tates Reeves win Mississippi's gubernatorial race.
The president and his team are likely to either take credit or deflect blame depending on the outcome of the Nov. 16 runoff in Louisiana's governor's race between the Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards and Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Rispone got Trump's full-throated support during a rally in Louisiana on Wednesday night.
Though Trump claims his support is a boon for Republican candidates, the record is mixed. While he has a winning record in the special elections that have been held during his term, in several cases the Republicans had narrow victories in contests Trump had won by large margins in 2016.
In some races, experts say Trump can negatively impact Republicans. A poll released by Christopher Newport University's Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy the day before Democrats won control of the Virginia legislature found that 59% of Virginia voters in four key state Senate races were less likely to vote for a pro-Trump candidate.
Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center, concluded that in Virginia, "affiliation with President Trump, an affiliation all Republican candidates share by party label, is not an asset in this cycle."
Here's a look at some of the more noteworthy races in which Trump where has entered the fray, since taking office:
2018 midterm elections
During the 2018 midterm elections, in which the Republicans ended up gaining Senate seats but losing control of the House, several Republican candidates in tough races tried to distance themselves from Trump. The president held up the defeat of those candidates as evidence of the folly in such a strategy, and in some cases even celebrated the defeat of Republicans who had been critical of him.
A Brookings Institution report found that 55% of the House and Senate candidates that Trump endorsed in the midterms won their races. And when Trump made a public appearance with the candidate, that person won 64% of the time.
By comparison, 35% of the candidates whom Vice President Mike Pence actively campaigned for won their races. In former President Barack Obama's case, 62% of them won, while 64% of the candidates who appeared with former Vice President Joe Biden were victorious.
But Brookings said the numbers aren't necessarily directly comparable because, on average, Trump campaigned in Republican districts.
Ron DeSantis defeat of Andrew Gillum
Then-Rep. Ron DeSantis of Florida won his narrow gubernatorial victory over Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum with a campaign centered on tying himself very closely to Trump.
DeSantis had trailed in the Republican primary before Trump endorsed him and held a rally for him. The president also campaigned for him twice in the week ahead of the general election.
"Trump voters showed up and, in the end, Gillum came up short," said Nova Southeastern University political scientist Charles Zelden.
More: This is why Andrew Gillum lost the Florida governor race to Ron DeSantis
Doug Jones defeat of Roy Moore
Sen. Doug Jones won a huge upset as a Democrat in deep-red Alabama during a special Senate election in 2017 that demonstrated the limits of Trump's influence.
First, Judge Roy Moore defeated the incumbent Sen. Luther Strange – who had been appointed to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became attorney general – in the Republican primary. Trump had supported Strange, and attended a rally in Huntsville for him days before he lost the runoff to Moore by nearly 10 points.
Then Moore, who was accused of sexual misconduct involving teen girls, went on to lose to Jones. The president initially kept his distance from Moore amid the allegations, but then endorsed him.
Trump deleted at least three tweets he had posted in support of Strange after his loss to Moore, including one tweet that said Strange had "been shooting up in the Alabama polls since my endorsement." But after Moore lost, Trump said it proved he had been right all along.
Contributing: John Fritze and Courtney Subramanian, USA TODAY; James Call, Tallahassee Democrat; The Associated Press
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Elections: Does a Trump endorsement help Republicans?
