Trump's win makes Iowa caucus redundant, alarming as Republicans contribute nothing useful

Never before had it been so cold on caucus night. Never before had the margin of victory for a Republican been so large. And long before that margin was known, never before had the voting felt so perfunctory.

These superlatives can be a bit overdone – Monday was just the ninth competitive Republican presidential caucus in Iowa, ever – but the unprecedented factors combined to produce considerably less anticipation than usually accompanies the caucuses and their minds-can-be-changed-in-front-of-your-eyes dynamic.

The oft-explained virtue of Iowa is supposed to be the opportunity for lesser-known candidates to speak face to face with voters and gain a foothold without having to raise a prohibitive amount of money. That is of course not to say that Iowans should always pick a “nobody.”

But 2024’s overwhelming endorsement of Trump by over 50% of caucusgoers meant Iowa Republicans ultimately contributed nothing useful to the campaign.

GOP should be winning big in 2024: But that 'landslide' win in Iowa could spell trouble for Trump – and Republicans

Donald Trump, unfit for the presidency, shows organizational competence

Trump’s rocket launch toward the Republican presidential nomination has more pressing consequences, too, of course.

He has proved over and over again that his vengeful temperament is poorly matched to the pressures of the White House. Many of the political achievements he touts from his first term, in particular his Supreme Court nominations, are undistinguishable from what most Republicans in his position might have done – and even at that, the candidates who came up short Monday have pointed, fairly, to many goals he did not achieve.

He does not think about the world in terms of influencing through persuasion. Instead, he repeatedly chooses to pursue raw authority that enables his bullying, best exemplified in his role in the riot as part of wild attempts to avoid Congress certifying President Joe Biden’s victory on Jan. 6, 2021.

He and his team demonstrated organizational competence leading up to Monday that they lacked in 2016, when Trump lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. At the caucus I attended Monday – one of hundreds of simultaneous gatherings in Iowa – the surrogate supporting Trump in person was Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey; he came all that way to deliver mostly the same script that Trump’s campaign distributed to its precinct captains.

The news media have reported on detailed plans that party operatives are preparing for a second Trump term to implement abhorrent hard-line tactics on, most notably, border enforcement and treatment of migrants. A better-organized Trump is a more dangerous Trump.

Trump's chaos prompts a search for alternatives

But most Iowans at the caucuses see Trump differently, perhaps as a means to an end for their goals or as someone who prompts political opponents to write frothing paragraphs like the two preceding this one.

None of the northwest Des Moines residents I happened to speak with Monday said they were caucusing for Trump, but most were ready to vote for him in November if it came to that.

Brad Evans, an accountant, said he has been caucusing since the 1970s. He didn’t know as he walked toward the registration table whom he would support.

Of Trump, he said, “They’re just harassing him. If he becomes president, they will give him a parking ticket for putting Air Force One on the airport tarmac. … So, do we want four more years of that?”

Is Trump inevitable? How GOP can change course after Iowa.

Melissa McDonald, who works for the Veterans Affairs Department, said she liked what Nikki Haley says about trying to reduce budget deficits and manage inflation. She voted for Trump in the 2020 election but said he was “too chaotic,” even though she liked his policies.

The biggest surprise: The news media's unforced error with an early race call

Monday was a still night, if cold, with road conditions vastly improved from Friday and Saturday, somewhat negating that concern for the credibility of the caucuses.

Turnout was less than two-thirds of Republicans’ high-water mark in 2016, but the the expected Trump rout seems likely to have influenced that, too.

What marred the evening the most were decisions by major networks and The Associated Press to foolishly declare a winner based on survey data and a handful of reported results long before voting even began at most caucuses. (The USA TODAY Network, which includes the Register, relies on the AP to call races.)

The media’s usual rules for this sort of thing prescribe waiting until polls close so as not to influence any voter into thinking their vote is worthless. While that dynamic is different and much harder to measure for the caucuses, that doesn’t excuse the self-inflicted blow to assessments of journalists’ prudence.

DeSantis, Haley find more success in urban counties but still fall well short

Trump was most dominant in rural Iowa; in numerous counties, he collected two-thirds or more of all the votes.

In urban areas, most people voted for somebody other than the former president.

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Two precincts held their GOP caucuses at First Church of the Open Bible, where the Rev. Josh Bingaman is pastor. He and his wife, Zia, supported Ron DeSantis.

“We were actually there when he announced his campaign here in Des Moines,” Josh Bingaman said. They met with other candidates, too, but “he’s been our favorite,” said Zia Bingaman. Her husband concluded: “He gets things done. I think that he doesn't have the same kind of problems and issues that surround Trump. I really love, as a Christian, his strong stance for things like pro-life.”

Kasey Ninneman, 42, said he voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and was supporting Nikki Haley because “she’s not Donald Trump” and was the most sensible of the Republican field. Ninneman said he would not vote for Biden again; his handling of the war in Gaza is one of the reasons. Monday was his first time at a Republican caucus.

“I'm surprised that Trump still has the support that he does,” Ninneman said.

Lucas Grundmeier is the opinion editor at the Des Moines Register, where this column first published.

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This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Is Iowa important? Trump win makes caucus seem redundant, perfunctory