On Tuesday, there's winning and then there's winning
Sep. 9—Candidates will define a win in many different ways after Tuesday's primary election.
Political analysts agree that in the 2022 election, the axiom that any old win is a win won't apply to everyone.
"Candidates have to not only win elections, they have to beat expectations," said Fergus Cullen, a Dover city councilor and former executive director of the Republican State Committee.
Doing better than expected in the primary becomes all the more important in 2022, with the general election campaign one week shorter than usual.
Since the primary is on the second Tuesday, this Sept. 13 primary date is the latest it can possibly be.
"Candidates in bitter, ideological primaries have much less time to pivot and get to the middle where they belong," Cullen said. "This means you want to come out of Tuesday's election with a ton of momentum, because that can only help you make that adjustment."
Gov. Chris Sununu is in a different situation.
Sununu will be looking for a walkover win against his three main challengers — Karen Testerman of Franklin, Thad Riley of Brentwood and Julian Acciard of Derry, none of whom has a history of big election success.
Still, some observers wonder whether this election might reveal that after six years in office and a divisive pandemic, Sununu's critics could turn out in greater numbers than independent polls suggest.
In 2020, at the height of his COVID-19-related popularity, Sununu received just under 90% of the vote in defeating Testerman.
"There's no question Sununu needs to slam it," said former Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes, a liberal radio talk show host.
"I'd say anything below 70% won't look good, and it's possible there could be some weakness shown in this one," he said.
To this point, Sununu has looked like a very solid bet to become only the fourth governor in state history to win a fourth two-year term.
A less emphatic primary win by Sununu could persuade national Democratic groups to consider investing in Sununu's general election opponent, state Sen. Tom Sherman, D-Rye.
U.S. Senate
Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc of Stratham also is hoping to surpass expectations.
Bolduc, the non-establishment front-runner in the U.S. Senate GOP primary, has trailed all his rivals in fundraising while consistently leading in the polls
Hodes said if Bolduc wins on Tuesday, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and other big sources of GOP cash may pass on this race and instead try flip the Senate into Republican hands by spending money in other targeted states.
"Bolduc needs a convincing win to quiet the GOP establishment and bring the crazies and their money into the race. I personally don't believe he is as far ahead as the polls say he is," Hodes said.
A big win could help Bolduc attract financial backing from some of the right-wing fundraising pools, such as the Tea Party Patriots.
1st District
On the flip side, 1st Congressional District candidate Matt Mowers of Gilford needs only to survive a much stronger challenge than most observers expected from former Trump administration press aide Karoline Leavitt of Hampton.
In 2020, Mowers coasted to an easy primary win over former GOP Vice Chairman Matt Mayberry of Dover and three others.
This time, he's in a bitter fight and has required more than $3 million of support from GOP establishment groups just to stay out in front.
"There's no doubt Karoline Leavitt is this cycle's rookie of the year," said Greg Moore, state director of the fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity, which hasn't taken sides in this race.
"She found her lane early on, has stayed disciplined and did not let herself appear rattled by the intensive attacks that have come after her."
However, if Mowers does come out on top, his win will appear even bigger to moneyed interests in D.C. than his primary victory two years ago.
Solid turnout predicted
In a recent interview, Secretary of State David Scanlan said he expected turnout might get a little lift because voters who haven't been paying attention had the week after Labor Day to become informed.
In the Massachusetts primary last week, just over 20% of voters made it to the polls, according to unofficial accounting.
On Friday, Scanlan predicted more than 30% would vote here Tuesday — 149,000 in the Republican primaries and 121,000 on the Democrats' side.
The split makes sense because the top Democrats running this year — Sen. Maggie Hassan, U.S. Reps. Annie Kuster and Chris Pappas and Democratic nominee for governor Tom Sherman — do not face serious opposition.
In 2020's state primary, more voters turned out for the Democratic contest (155,956) than in the Republican one (147,237), mainly because of the very competitive primary for governor that then-Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes of Concord won over Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky of Concord.
Independent influence
Undeclared voters can choose either primary ballot, so a bigger-than-expected turnout could skew these results.
In the 2nd Congressional District primary, Keene Mayor George Hansel would expect to benefit from a bigger turnout as the more moderate, pro-abortion rights candidate, when compared to his two opponents, Hillsborough County Treasurer Bob Burns of Pembroke and Chinese-born law professor Lily Tang Williams of Weare.
Likewise, Senate President and Senate hopeful Chuck Morse is a reliable conservative who likely wants a bigger turnout to dilute the hard-core, angry base of voters that Bolduc has on his side.
1st Congressional District hopeful Gail Huff Brown of Rye could also profit if many independents turn out, because she is the only one of the five major candidates in that race who supports abortion rights.
"Her candidacy could reveal to us just how big a base can a pro-choice Republican candidate have here in this post-Roe vs. Wade world we live in," Hodes said.
Dover's Cullen, who is supporting Morse, said Sununu's other big worry could be ending up on a ticket of very conservative nominees who could face a harder time trying to take out incumbents Hassan, Kuster or Pappas.
"We really have the chance on Wednesday as Republicans to wake up and find we have as nominees Don Bolduc, Karoline Leavitt and Bob Burns, which even a few months ago was really unthinkable," Cullen said.
"For the governor, that could be quite a hangover."
