Tuesday's elections show that Oklahoma has many faces of conservatism

Some Democrats claimed offices across several counties in the state, but the real story after Tuesday's elections is that some Republicans won bigger than others. Regardless of who won or loss, what explains voters’ choices in 2022? What does this mean for the state and everyday Oklahomans moving forward?

The main takeaway from Tuesday’s midterm election is that Oklahoma is still solidly red, especially across the state’s rural counties. The results are not entirely surprising, given that Oklahoma offers one of the most favorable landscapes for conservatives, Republicans, and conservative Republicans in the country. However, going into the midterms, not every race’s outcome seemed to clearly favor Republican candidates. The big question was whether Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt could gain reelection against former State Superintendent of Education and lifelong Republican but recently-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister. Stitt won, beating his opponent 56% to 42%. The uncertainty of Stitt’s reelection was in light of conflicting polls leading into Election Day, some of which showed Hofmeister leading Stitt by upwards of five percentage points and others showed a tight race.

Some observers claim Stitt’s victory over Hofmeister represents a mandate in favor of Stitt’s conservative positions on issues such as abortion and school vouchers. Other sources make a conflicting claim, that Democrats actually overperformed compared to expectations across most of Oklahoma’s counties, when compared to their 2020 election performance.

How do we make sense of these dueling takes?

It is fair to interpret the midterm election returns to mean that conservative values dominated this election cycle once again, apart from the state’s urban centers in Oklahoma, Cleveland, and Tulsa counties. However, Oklahoma offers a broader array of conservatism than most other states offer, which brings the question about which flavor of conservatism was at play this election cycle. While researchers are still waiting to get the full results of Tuesday’s election, preliminary results from the Oklahoma City Exit Poll (Source: OU OKC Exit Poll; N=605) illustrate that Stitt is less popular than most other Republican incumbents across the state. Specifically, the governor garnered about 10% fewer voters than most Republican candidates — who all won their elections by large 30+ point margins. This might suggest that Stitt’s brand of conservatism, while still successful in besting Democrats, is perhaps less enthusiastically received by Oklahoma’s Republican and Democratic voters alike.

This point is illustrated further by the polling data, which demonstrate Lankford’s broad appeal — he captured most Republicans and even some Democratic voters in the more liberal OKC area. Meanwhile, only half of OKC Exit Poll respondents who voted for Lankford also voted for the Republican gubernatorial incumbent Kevin Stitt. Most of the poll’s Republican respondents who claimed to have voted against Stitt ultimately voted for the Democrat, Joy Hofmeister.

Despite Stitt’s victory over Hofmeister, his relative unpopularity appears to be explained by his combative tone toward the tribes. Most Republicans in the OKC Exit Poll who did not vote for Stitt were those for whom the Five Tribes’ endorsement mattered a great deal in their vote. Interestingly, this was independent of whether people claimed tribal citizenship. The dealings between the state and tribal governments will certainly be an evolving issue to watch for, especially as the federal government weighs in on tribal sovereignty. What will happen next? Stay tuned, and I’ll see you at the polls.

Allyson F. Shortle is an associate professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: This election shows that Oklahoma has many faces of conservatism