Turkey’s Erdogan vows to fix mistakes that led to shock election loss

Semafor Signals

Insights from The Economist, Bloomberg, and Politico

The News

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed Monday to fix mistakes that led to his Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) worst results since he took power more than 20 years ago.

The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won the popular vote for the first time in decades, earning them control of Turkey’s five biggest cities.

Erdogan said that the election “is not an end for us, but actually a turning point,” telling party members, “If we made a mistake, we will fix it,” without specifying any proposed reforms.

The AKP faced losses in areas it was confident it would hold as voters expressed discontent with sky-high inflation and Erdogan’s leadership.

SIGNALS

Istanbul mayor establishes himself as Erdogan’s chief rival

Ekrem Imamoglu, who was re-elected mayor of Istanbul, has emerged as Turkey’s most prominent opposition figure and a strong 2028 presidential contender, dispelling the notion that the opposition was in disarray after Erdogan’s victory in last year’s election. Despite AKP investing considerable resources in the mayoral race, often described as Turkey’s second most powerful political post, Imamoglu won by roughly 10%. “As we celebrate our victory, we send a resounding message to the world: the decline of democracy ends now,” he wrote on X after winning. “In spite of the government’s vigorous efforts to reclaim control over Turkey’s economic powerhouse and despite a fragmented opposition, Imamoglu’s decisive win established a strong base for his possible run in the 2028 presidential elections,” an Istanbul Economics consultant told Bloomberg.

Runaway inflation bites Erdogan as economic reforms fail to pay off

One of the key reasons for AKP’s electoral troubles was widespread discontent with Erdogan’s economic policy, which has left the country with runaway inflation and a historically low lira. While the central bank has raised interest rates by 41.5% since last May, this has not yet quelled inflation, which is expected to peak at more than 70% in May, Bloomberg reported. “Conservative voters punished the AKP at the ballot box for the cost of living crisis,” one analyst told Politico, noting that the opposition had expanded beyond its urban strongholds into Turkey’s conservative heartlands.