Turkey’s Faceless Opposition Squabbles as Erdogan Gears for Vote

Firat Kozok and Selcan Hacaoglu
·3 min read
6
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s opposition bloc is no closer to naming a candidate to contest President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and risks blowing a rare chance to dent his dominance at elections in less than three months.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Leaders of the six—party opposition are meeting again on Thursday and will seek to break the impasse after months of internal conflict have prevented them from agreeing on a joint candidate, people familiar with the matter said.

The meeting comes a day after Erdogan called for presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, quashing speculation the vote would be postponed following two deadly earthquakes.

Erdogan Says Turkey Vote to Be Held as Planned in May

It will remain the toughest electoral race of Erdogan’s two decades in power. He’s stepped up a multi-billion dollar reconstruction effort after last month’s disaster that leveled cities and killed more than 45,000, and the government has faced sharp criticism of the initial quake response.

The opposition has failed to effectively communicate its policy on vital topics from the economy to international relations, said Bekir Agirdir, head of the Konda polling agency. It should have the upper hand due to the government’s perceived bungled crisis response, but it has missed the mark.

“Its continued infighting over the candidate coupled with its failure to convey its main vision on critical matters are hampering its chances,” said Agirdir, whose agency successfully predicted the margin of victory for local elections in 2019, when the opposition’s Ekrem Imamoglu took Istanbul.

Erdogan, who has assumed greater presidential powers since 2018, remains Turkey’s most popular politician even as his Justice and Development Party lost some support among poor Turks who had been among its most stalwart backers. Turks are also dealing with the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, which only looks set to get worse as the impact of the earthquakes filters through the economy.

To defeat Erdogan in the presidential race, opposition parties must rally behind a candidate that can lure support of the pro-Kurdish HDP which has emerged as kingmaker in past elections, though is now facing a potential ban because of alleged ties to separatist Kurdish militants.

Why Turkey’s Next Election Is a Real Test for Erdogan: QuickTake

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the biggest party in the opposition bloc, has put himself forward as a potential nominee and is widely expected to win support of Kurdish voters.

The problem is that at least one party leader is expected to block the endorsement of his candidacy at Thursday’s closed-door meeting in Ankara. The second biggest party, IYI Party, is questioning his popularity, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share the sensitive information.

Voters appear split when it comes to the opposition. Less than half of Turkey’s electorate is expected to vote in favor of Erdogan’s AK Party and nationalist allies according to recent polling. But those voting for the opposition are split mainly between the six-party opposition groups and the pro-Kurdish HDP. That may allow Erdogan and his allies to divide and conquer at the polls.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.