Two-time incumbent Elaine Luria was defeated Tuesday. Here’s why Virginia’s 2nd District turned red.

Two Democratic Congresswomen held onto their seats in competitive races in northern Virginia. But in Hampton Roads’ 2nd Congressional District, Republican challenger Jen Kiggans ousted Democrat Elaine Luria, a two-time incumbent who outspent her opponent.

So, what went wrong for Democrats in Tidewater? Two political science experts say it can largely be summed up in one word: Redistricting.

“I think that was the biggest factor,” said Andrea Simonelli, an associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University.

New congressional districts in Virginia were drawn up and approved last year.

In addition to the Eastern Shore and Virginia Beach, the 2nd District previously included Williamsburg, York County and parts of Norfolk and Hampton. After redistricting, the 2nd District lost its ground in Norfolk and on the Peninsula, and gained territory in Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Franklin and parts of Chesapeake and Southampton.

Simonelli said the new district lines “absolutely” gave Republicans an edge.

“The original district’s location was already a toss-up (between the parties),” she said. “Districts that have that nice swing in the middle that go back and forth, I’d say the edge doesn’t have to be huge to kick it to one side.”

Benjamin Melusky, assistant professor of political science at Old Dominion University, agreed that the new lines left Luria at a disadvantage. The midterms also tend to favor the party that isn’t in control of the White House — especially when inflation is high, he said.

“Luria just had a harder race to run,” he said,

Given that most voters are focused on their pocketbooks, Melusky added that Kiggans’ consistent messaging about the economy was likely a good call.

Throughout her campaign, Kiggans frequently slammed what she dubbed the “Biden economy” and vowed to reduce inflation and government spending if elected.

“I think Kiggans ran the type of campaign she needed to run,” Melusky said.

Melusky noted Kiggans often tied Luria to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That was likely another smart move, he said, as Pelosi is strongly associated with the institution of Congress as a whole.

“Individual Congress members typically have good approval but when you talk about the institution of Congress, people pitch their nose and say it’s not great,” he said.

Simonelli also noted that Kiggans distanced herself from former President Donald Trump on the campaign trail — despite having seemingly stood by the president during his false claims about election fraud in 2020.

Kiggans was one of four state senators who voted for a $70 million budget amendment to conduct an audit of the 2020 presidential election results in Virginia. The measure did not pass.

But it was former Vice President Mike Pence, not Trump, who came to her campaign events last week, Simonelli said.

“Separating herself in that way and having Pence (come instead) was probably a safer bet,” she said, adding that a focus on Trump might have alienated more moderate Republican voters.

On Tuesday night, Kiggans jumped out to an early lead and never relinquished it. She had 151,596 votes compared to Luria’s 139,675 with 100% of the precincts reporting.

Katie King, katie.king@virginiamedia.com