U.S. Census Bureau error may have helped Rhode Island keep its 2nd Congressional seat
Rhode Island's surprise 2020 population gain, which allowed the state to keep two congressional seats, may not have happened after all, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Instead of adding 44,000 new residents from 2010 to 2020, Rhode Island is more likely to have lost 10,500 residents over the course of the decade, the Census Bureau's Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report shows.
Rhode Island was one of eight states the Census Bureau now thinks were overcounted in the decennial population count used to apportion political representation, draw district boundaries and distribute federal aid.
The 5.05% estimated overcount of the Ocean State's population was the third-largest in the nation.
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The other states with statistically significant estimated population overcounts were Hawaii (6.79% overcount), Delaware (5.45%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Utah (2.59%), Massachusetts (2.24%) and Ohio (1.49%).
The census estimates six states had significant undercounts: Arkansas (5.04%), Tennessee (4.78%), Mississippi (4.11%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%) and Texas (1.92%.)
The 2020 census determined Rhode Island had 1,097,379 residents on April 1 of that year. Reducing that total by 5.05% would put the state's population at 1,041,962 people.
But a 1999 U.S. Supreme Court ruling says post-census sampling and estimates cannot be used to change how many congressional seats any state received after the fact, so Rhode Island's 2nd District will remain intact.
Or, as Common Cause Rhode Island Executive Director John Marion Jr. tweeted, there are "no do-overs with reapportionment."
Census overcounts vs. undercounts
The new Census Bureau report does not provide specific theories or explanations as to what caused any state to overcount or undercount residents.
But it estimates what share of the error is likely due to counting people twice or attributing people to the wrong state, versus failing to count people entirely.
It says Rhode Island's duplicate rate was slightly above the national average, while its omission rate was below the national average.
"Today's release by the Census Bureau tells us that Rhode Island had one of the biggest overcounts in the 2020 Census and that overcount likely helped us retain our second congressional seat," Marion, who was a member of the state's Complete Count Committee, wrote in an email. "While we don't know the reason why the overcount occurred, it may have partially been the result of the vigorous efforts of community groups to encourage participation. Several of the other states with overcounts, including New York and Minnesota, also had robust community outreach programs."
Redistricting experts estimates that Rhode Island kept its 2nd Congressional District seat by around 19,000 people.
Northern states saw more overcounts and Southern states more undercounts.
Many of the overcount states, including Rhode Island, spent money and dedicated resources toward counting residents while many of the undercount states did not. Rhode Island raised $1.6 million for its 2020 census "Complete Count" effort.
The Census Bureau is overseen by Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, who was governor of Rhode Island in April 2020.
Although most Rhode Island elected officials are probably happy with the effective outcome of the census, regardless of how the state got there, the Republican Party isn't.
“This is terrible. Rhode Island’s aggressive census counting tactics led to the equivalent of double-counting more than the entire population of the City of East Providence," Rhode Island Republican National Committeeman Steve Frias said in a news release. "Those who were involved or encouraged these aggressive double-counting tactics should be embarrassed rather than gleefully exclaiming on Twitter 'No do-overs with apportionment though!'"
On Friday evening, Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, who was represented on the Complete Count Committee, pointed the finger for the overcount at former President Donald Trump, who was in office for the 2020 Census.
“It is not surprising that there are multiple errors being found during the audit process of the 2020 Census. Throughout his time in office, former President Trump tried to use the 2020 Census as a political tool," Gorbea said in a message through her gubernatorial campaign.
"At every turn, his administration undermined the process. He underfunded the entire effort, sought to unconstitutionally exclude noncitizens from the count, and he stopped the process a month early. President Biden’s administration thankfully is in the process of correcting both overcounts and undercounts that are part of President Trump’s legacy of mismanagement.”
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This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Census says RI population was overcounted in 2020 congressional seat
