U.S. college enrollment dropping
U.S. college enrollment declined 1.1 percent this fall. This follows a 6.5 percent enrollment decline during the first two years of the pandemic. It was not just the pandemic that was the only reason for declining attendance. There was already a 9 percent decrease in college enrollment, between 2009 and 2020, the year COVID started.
There are 2.5 million fewer students in college today than there were in 2009. Except for wartime, the U.S. has never experienced a period of declining educational attainment like this, according to Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University.
The reasons for this decline are many. A key factor is demographics. The number of 18-year-olds in high school has been declining for several years. In addition, the percentage of high school graduates enrolling in college is shrinking. The number of college-bound high school graduates declined from 70 percent in 2016 to 63 percent in 2020 even before the onset of the pandemic. One might point to today’s tight labor market, which makes getting a job easier for high school graduates, as the reason for this decline. However, the data shows that many potential college enrollees are not going to college, nor are they working.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental group that promotes economic growth, tracks the rate of those “Not Employed in Education or Training” (NEET). The NEET rate for U.S. workers ages 20-24 rose from 14.7 percent to 18.3 percent in 2021 and it continues to climb. Some of this “underutilized worker rate” may be accounted for by the number of young people who dropped out of school or quit their jobs early during the pandemic. And of course, the NEET rate is always higher among people who do not have a high school education, and high school graduation rates dropped during the pandemic. This negative NEET rate trend does not bode well for the country.
A nation’s economic well-being is dependent on a variety of factors. Among the most important in a developed country is “human capital,” the accumulated investment in the education and intellectual capabilities of a country. Declining college enrollment leads to less scientists, engineers, political leaders, capable teachers and many other professionals that are the basis for a nation’s economic success.
Countries that have experienced significant economic growth in the past 20-plus years realize this. China and India have made great economic and quality of life strides in the past few decades by, among other investments, optimizing college enrollment in their own countries and by sending young people overseas for their college education.
Here in the U.S., a variety of phenomena have worked to discourage our young people from going to college. The cost of obtaining a college degree has led many to question its value, as measured by a return on investment. Accusations about the inherent WOKE bias of college campuses are flagrant. Critics lambast expensive accoutrements on college campuses suggesting tuition money is poorly spent on “climbing walls” rather than education. They question the value of research in which some faculty are involved, especially when it takes away time spent teaching. They point to the growth in administrative personnel, and they lament the fact that some college students enroll in majors that give them few employable skills.
Valid as some of these criticisms are, they have a much greater negative impact on young people and their parents’ decision not to attend college than they have among policymakers who can most effectively address them. A healthy debate about these criticisms needs to occur, but it must include not only criticism about higher education, but the benefits as well. Absent full disclosure about the positive impact of a college education on lifetime earnings, and on an individual’s and their community’s higher quality of life, young people may hear only one negative side of the story. As a result, we are adding to young people’s decision not to attend any college, thereby denying them, their communities, and their country the myriad of benefits that accrue to those who do.
Michael A. MacDowell was president of Misericordia University from 1998 to 2014.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: U.S. college enrollment dropping
