U.S. Coronavirus: New Study Shows Bleak Outlook, Even With Action
This article originally appeared on the Across America Patch
The coronavirus pandemic could take as many as 81,000 U.S. lives over the next four months, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that take into account protection orders already in place and warns the death toll could be higher if health care equipment falls short or social distancing guidelines are weakened.
Various models have shown a wide range in the number of deaths expected, with some of the more alarming studies presenting totals based on worst-case scenarios with no measures taking place in response to the spread of the virus.
The projections by the Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, are different.
The projections were calculated using the expected peak of the infection in each state and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed. Social distancing orders already in place were factored into the totals.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the coronavirus task force, on Sunday offered numbers that support the findings in the study. He warned that the coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths — and perhaps up to 200,000.
"We're going to have millions of cases," Fauci said on CNN, noting that the outbreak is "such a moving target" that projections are subject to change.
For the United States as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 14, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 50,000 short of the supply and the need for intensive-care beds for such patients would fall shorty by nearly 15,000. Nationwide deaths on that date will top 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 81,114 by Aug. 4.
Health experts have cautioned that study of the coronavirus is still in its early stages, making accurate projections difficult.
The authors of the research article containing the new findings wrote: “Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states.”
President Trump has said he wanted to "reopen" the country by Easter, April 12, at least in phases, but said plans are uncertain.
In making projections for individual states, the institute took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.
“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.
