U.S. to ease Venezuela sanctions if Maduro commits to fair elections this week
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
The Biden administration is preparing to ease sanctions on Venezuela in the coming days if the government of Nicolás Maduro signs an agreement with opposition leaders committing to a framework for free and fair elections, U.S. sources familiar with the matter told McClatchy and the Miami Herald.
An announcement of U.S. sanctions relief could come shortly after Maduro signs a deal with Venezuela’s unitary platform, an alliance of opposition parties that have called for free elections for the past eight years. The agreement could come as early as Tuesday, before Venezuela’s opposition is set to hold primary elections.
Some of Maduro’s most trusted lieutenants, including the Rodriguez siblings, Delcy and Jorge, began quiet negotiations on the framework in Qatar earlier this year with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Juan Gonzalez, and representatives of both groups have held a series of subsequent meetings in recent months.
Biden’s team has insisted that international monitors observe the elections and that Maduro lift a prohibition he imposed on key opposition figures from running, including María Corina Machado, a former member of the National Assembly of Venezuela.
The United States is insisting that Maduro put ink to paper, in front of cameras, committing to democratic elections, before it announces any sanctions relief on the country’s oil sector. Should Maduro fail to uphold his end of the deal with the opposition, the Biden administration would reimpose sanctions, an official said.
This would not be the first negotiation between representatives of the opposition and of the regime, and given the long track record of past failures, the chances that the process leads to a democratic transition in Venezuela are viewed as very slim.
But in a sign that the process is moving forward, the Norwegian embassy in Mexico said on Monday that the often off-again, on-again meetings between the regime and the Venezuelan opposition will restart on Tuesday.
“The government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the unitary platform of Venezuela (The opposition) have decided to resume the dialogue and negotiation process facilitated by Norway with the objective of reaching a political agreement, in accordance with the provisions of the Memorandum of Understanding signed in the City of Mexico on August 13, 2021,” the embassy said through its account on X, former known as Twitter. “Meetings will begin on October 17, 2023 in Bridgetown, Barbados.
A White House official rejected the notion it had entered into a “deal” with Maduro, noting to McClatchy that the administration has long said it would lift sanctions in exchange for concrete steps by Maduro toward democratic reforms.
“There is no ‘deal’ between us and nothing has been committed to between the U.S. and Venezuela,” the official said. “The administration has been clear — we support a Venezuelan-led negotiation and are prepared to provide sanctions relief in response to concrete actions toward competitive elections.”
“The key conversations are between the opposition and Maduro. We are only minimally involved because of the fact that we have sanctions on Venezuela and would, consistent with our longstanding policy, provide some relief in response to concrete steps toward competitive elections,” the official added. “The United States welcomes the announcement by Maduro representatives and the Unitary Platform to resume Venezuelan-led negotiations in Barbados.”
Sources in Venezuela told the Herald that talks between Biden and Maduro’s teams had established the foundation for the tentative agreement that would push Caracas towards holding fair and free elections, monitored by international observers.
The opposition was not present at the Qatar meeting or in the subsequent gatherings, but members were later incorporated into the process as conversations progressed, the sources said.
Opposition leaders are asking for Maduro to release a long list of political prisoners. It was not immediately clear whether this would be a condition of a deal this week.
The Norwegian embassy said that meetings are set to be held in Barbados ahead of the opposition’s primary vote set for Sunday, which is expected to be easily won by Machado. The leader of Vente Venezuela is way ahead in the polls, with 45%. Each of her rivals are registering in the single digits.
According to polling firm Meganalisis, Machado would also beat Maduro in a presidential election with a margin of 54.9% to 11.0%.
While the process is moving ahead under the premise that Maduro is willing to hold free elections, opposition leaders remain skeptical, saying that the Venezuelan strongman has a long history of breaking his word.
“The regime has only one goal, to get Washington to lift sanctions. They are not interested in embarking into a political transition, they are not interested in recovering the democratic system, nor holding just and transparent elections. They only want the sanctions lifted,” said opposition Congressman William Dávila, of the Acción Democratica party.
Dávila worries that the regime is going to make enough concessions on paper to get what it wants from Washington and then silently sabotage the process while waiting for the resources that will come in after the sanctions are lifted.
“This means we can’t simply take what they are proposing. We need to have a comprehensive plan and that means that if we are going to have an election, we need to ensure that the conditions are in place to ensure the transparency of those elections, and that goes through doing away with the disqualifications, the ban of political parties and an end of the press blackout,” Dávila said.
Yet, there are a few signs suggesting things might be a little different this time around.
There is significant pressure on Maduro, not only coming from the Western democracies but also from his own ideological allies, such as from President Gustavo Petro in Colombia, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, who understand that the Venezuelan crisis is discrediting the socialist movement throughout Latin America, explained José Vicente Carrasquero, professor of political science at the Simón Bolivar University.
Maduro is also being pushed forward by the dire conditions of the regime’s finances. And the regime might feel it can still win an election if it obtains billions of dollars that are being held back by the sanctions, Carrasquero said.
In a statement on Monday afternoon, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said the administration “welcomes the announcement by Maduro representatives and the Unitary Platform to resume Venezuelan-led negotiations in Barbados.”
“Along with likeminded partners and other friends of Venezuela, the United States will continue its efforts to unite the international community in support of the Venezuelan-led negotiation process,” Miller said.
