A U.S. House race of polar opposites: Lawson, Dunn debate if poverty or China is the problem

About the only thing Congressmen Neal Dunn and Al Lawson seem to agree on is that the other is from North Florida, but too out of touch with the region to be Tallahassee’s representative in the U.S. Congress.

The two have spent the past six years canceling out each other's votes in Congress and now Gov. Ron DeSantis’ redesigned Congressional District 2 pits Panama City Republican Dunn and Democrat Lawson of Tallahassee in an incumbent versus incumbent race that could decide which party controls the U.S. House.

Odds makers at FiveThirtyEight, a political data and opinion group, predict an 80% chance of an Election Day outcome falling between Democrats picking up two seats and maintaining control or losing more than six seats with the majority mantle going to the Republicans.

Dunn and Lawson are appropriate stand-ins for their parties.

Voter with confidence:

• U.S. House, Florida District 2: A voter's guide to the 2022 general election

• The ultimate Leon County, Tallahassee voter's guide to the 2022 general election

Nonpartisan groups like The American Civil Liberties Union and Common Cause note Dunn votes their position about 10% of the time while giving Lawson a perfect score.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce gives Dunn a lifetime score of 88%. Lawson’s is 66%.

Lawson endorses President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, abortion rights and gun regulations.

Dunn praises former President Donald Trump, supports restrictions on abortion access, and is opposed to gun regulations.

At a Tiger Bay Club lunch, the two were asked what is the biggest economic problem facing the district. Dunn warmed up rhetorically with mentions of inflation, recession, and supply chain problems before he found his target.

China.

“We cannot be as dependent on China as we are. And this is true of the free world. That is clearly the number one problem for this district,” said Dunn.

Lawson replied, “Poverty. We have a lot of poverty here.”

Two hours later, sitting in a television studio for a taping of a candidate forum Dunn had pulled out of, Lawson expressed bewilderment and frustration at Dunn’s response.

"I don't know how anyone can travel across North Florida and say that," said Lawson, calling it "the worse remark … I’ve ever heard.”

Economics of CD 2

Lawson observes the two are running in a district where 13 of 14 counties exceed the state poverty level of 13% and the household median income in half of the counties is nearly a third less than the statewide average of $57,703.

“China has always been there. China is not the problem,” said Lawson, who represented much of the district for 10 years in the Florida Senate, 2000 to 2010.

It will take a generation for the region’s timber industry to recover from Hurricane Michael. The BP oil spill and a water war with Georgia over the flow of the Apalachicola River has all but wiped out the Apalachicola Bay oyster beds, and reduced the harvest from the bay.

Outside of Bay, Leon, and Wakulla counties, state economists say the district is plagued by population loss and a declining tax base, leaving them unable to finance infrastructure improvements to stimulate economic growth.

Lawson charged Dunn ducks the issues on the campaign trail but “does a very good job of carrying the Republican agenda, not the agenda for the people of the Second Congressional District.”

Dunn did not respond to requests for comment for this story. He has told the Tallahassee Democrat he believes his view are more in line with voters than Lawson’s are.

Candidate column: U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn: I'm the right fit for Florida’s Second Congressional District |

When it comes to the district's economy, both campaigns rely on their respective parties’ talking points.

One believes Joe Biden is an effective President and the other says he’s an unnecessary disaster.

Lawson endorses the Biden agenda, he said, because it steered nearly $500 million in federal money for jobs, infrastructure, schools, local governments, students and families to North Florida.

He tells people he voted for those measures and Dunn voted against them.

Dunn uses the words “comical” and “wasteful” to describe aspects of the Biden plan.

In August, Dunn and Lawson canceled each other’s vote on the Inflation Reduction Act – a multibillion dollar bill to implement healthcare, social and climate policies.

Earlier the two had voted opposite on the trillion-dollar American Rescue Plan and also the Build Back Better Act –  cornerstones of Biden’s economic agenda.

Dunn compares former President Trump’s economy of “skyrocketing opportunities” to a Biden record he calls “a reckless and unnecessary disaster.”

"The IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) is a huge, huge, is mostly a green New Deal and it weaponizes the IRS (Internal Revenue Service). This bill (funds) … 80,000 new IRS agents that are supposedly going to audit you. I mean, really, this bill has it.,” said Dunn, adding he was proud to have voted against it.

Lawson promotes the act as a way to reduce prescription drug costs and the national deficit. It also contains initiatives to reduce carbon emissions to combat climate change.

Lawson dismisses Dunn’s criticism as fearmongering detached from reality.

“What he doesn’t say: Over the next 10 years more than 50,000 agents will either quit or retire and right now if you try to call the IRS getting through is very tough, they’re understaffed,” said Lawson. “We need those agents. This will be the first time when those who make more than $400,000 will pay more in taxes than the middle class does.”

The odds are with Dunn, but Lawson sees a clear path

CD 2 voters favored Trump over Biden by more than 11 points in 2020. DeSantis carried the district by eight points in 2018.

Campaign finance reports show Dunn started the race in September with $1.5 million in his account, compared to Lawson’s $596,000.

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Lawson remains undeterred, saying he has beaten the odds since his first race for the Florida House in 1982 and has represented parts of CD 2 his entire political career.

He’s banking on 40 years of politicking at Possum Festivals, Rattlesnake Roundups, and Forest Day parades paying off on Election Day.

And to drive home his point, in a room full of suits at Capital Tiger Bay, Lawson turned to Dunn and elicited laughter and memories of former Gov. Lawton Chiles’ come from behind 1994 reelection victory over Jeb Bush when he turned to Dunn and repeated Chiles' warning to his challenger, “the old he-coon walks just before dawn."

Head-to-head on the issues

Here are three more issues separating Neal Dunn and Al Lawson, with comments taken from a joint appearance at a Capital Tiger Bay lunch and an Empty Seat Forum with Al Lawson that was hosted by the Tallahassee Democrat and WFSU.

Election Denialism? 

Dunn was among the 147 House Republicans who voted not to accept the electoral vote and election of President Joe Biden. The vote came after Trump supporters breached the U.S. Capitol in an insurrection to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election results.

At Capital Tiger Bay Dunn said, “Joe Biden was elected two years ago. No question. He’s been the president for the last two years. However, it’s a shame that Americans cannot have confidence in their elections.”

Dunn then went on to question the integrity of journalists and government.

“Can you trust them? I tell you, when at least half of America does not trust those comments in the press or FBI,” said Dunn about the government’s search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

Lawson said any distrust in the system has been nurtured by Trump and Republicans like Dunn who are afraid to publicly disagree with the former President.

“He tried to go around the question, saying he’s been president for two years. He didn’t say the presidential election was legitimate,” said Lawson.

Dunn did not respond to a request for clarification.

Abortion

Dunn supports the Supreme Court decision to reverse its Roe v. Wade decision providing a constitutional right to abortion access.

“Unborn babies were my patients. I had a sacred trust with those babies. The Supreme Court returned these decisions to the states, and I think that’s probably appropriate,” said Dunn, a retired urologist.

Lawson disagrees with the Supreme Court decision and supports a woman’s right to access abortion services.

“It’s time for male lawmakers to stop trying to tell women what kind of health care they can receive. Women can make their own decision, especially in cases of rape, incest and the mother’s health. I support a woman’s right to choose,” said Lawson.

Gun control 

Lawson supports an assault weapon ban. Dunn opposes gun regulations.

“You will never convince me disarming Americans makes them safer. I have co-sponsored multiple efforts to try to make schools safer; to harden the schools, to provide resources to make those security systems much more available, to train faculty, and to put safety personnel like SROs on every school campus,’ said Dunn.

When asked what legislation he would support to curb gun violence, Dunn said, “We can do better with mental health. There’s no question we can do better with mental health, but we don’t do it at the cost of our rights.”

Lawson said the first step to curb gun violence is to outlaw assault weapons and require more stringent background checks on gun buyers.

“We need to get rid of automatic weapons. You don’t need them to go hunting. You put the game at a disadvantage. If you’re shooting a deer 10, 15 times then you are not a very good shot,” said Lawson.

James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com. Follow on him Twitter: @CallTallahassee

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Neal Dunn vs. Al Lawson: Head to head on U.S. House District 2 issues