The U.S. and Israel Are Walking a Tightrope, and the Stakes Are High

President Joe Biden seems to know that he’s walking a tightrope when it comes to the Israel-Hamas war—and the stakes are very high.

In a televised speech from the White House on Tuesday—delivered as Israel unleashed massive air strikes on Gaza and mobilized 360,000 reservists for a possible invasion (and reoccupation) of the small, densely populated enclave on Israel’s southern border—Biden made clear that Israeli forces, with possible backing from nearby U.S. aircraft carriers, must be forceful enough to crush Hamas as a terrorist organization but also restrained enough to avoid killing very many Palestinian civilians.

Biden said he had told Netanyahu that if the U.S. had experienced something like Hamas’ attack this past weekend—which has killed an estimated 1,000 Israelis, most of them civilians—“our response would be swift and overwhelming.” But he also urged Netanyahu to “uphold the law of war.” (At least 900 Palestinians have been killed since the airstrikes began.)

Attempting to distinguish the terrorists from the civilians that they govern, Biden said that “Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people’s rights to dignity and self-determination.” He added that “they use Palestinian civilians as human shields” with “no regard to who pays the price.”

In an statement emailed to Politico shortly before Biden’s address, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said “we support Israel taking necessary and proportionate action to defend its country and protect its people.” (Italics added.)

Two days ago, Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted that he’d “encouraged” the Turkish foreign minister’s call for a cease-fire—then soon deleted the tweet, perhaps persuaded by colleagues that Israel needed not only to avenge Hamas’ murderous attacks but also to weaken or wipe out Hamas altogether.

Still, all three messages—Biden’s speech, the NSC’s email, and Blinken’s tentative tweet—reflect the complexity of this war. One problem is that Gaza is so dense, it’s impossible to destroy military targets—for example, Hamas armories or hideouts—without also killing civilians.

Quite apart from the moral morass of killing civilians in response to killing civilians, there are geopolitical considerations. Hezbollah—like Hamas, an Iran-backed terrorist organization—has more than 100,000 rockets in southern Lebanon, on Israel’s northern border. Many Palestinians in the West Bank cheered Hamas’ attack on Israel. (This enclave is governed by the Palestinian Authority, which is more moderate than Hamas but also more feckless.) If Israel inflicts massive death and destruction on the Palestinians in Gaza, Hezbollah and the West Bank militants may feel compelled to intervene. A three-front war could be disastrous for Israel—and would be a humanitarian catastrophe for the region, regardless of how it ended.

An article in The Economist suggests this may be Hamas’ intention. “Either we die slowly or we die taking the occupation with us,” it quotes a Hamas official as saying, referring to Israel. In other words, as the article sums up Hamas’ hopes, “Fighting in the densely populated strip will exact a steep humanitarian toll that could sway global public opinion against Israel and draw sympathizers elsewhere in the region into the fray.”

For the moment, Hezbollah has not entered the fight, except for firing a few artillery rounds, with little damage done. (Israel has responded in kind.) Iran has not displayed any eagerness to step in, either. (Iranians have long supplied and trained Hamas, but they denied a Wall Street Journal report that they helped plan Saturday’s attack. Israeli and U.S. officials say they have found no evidence of such assistance either.)

Biden said in his White House address, “Any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word—don’t. Don’t!” He noted that not only was he stepping up shipments of ammunition and air-defense weapons to Israel, he had also deployed an aircraft carrier task group to the region—to deter other parties, notably Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria, from getting into the fight.

So far, the deterrent seems to be working. How long it can continue working, if the hellscape in Gaza gets too fierce, no one can say.

Much also rides on whether the Sunni Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia, can be held in check. Those nations’ rulers see Hamas and Hezbollah as allies of their archfoe, Iran. In the past couple of years, they have struck an alliance with Israel as a partner against Iran. U.S., Saudi, and Israeli officials have even been in talks recently to normalize relations and set security guarantees. It is likely that Hamas launched its attack on Saturday in part to sabotage these talks. For the Sunni rulers must pay at least lip service to Palestinians’ rights, and if Gaza’s Palestinians suffer too badly in Israel’s retaliation, a détente with Israel could be immeasurably set back. This is another area where Israel, with the help of U.S. and European diplomats, must strike a delicate balance. It is a serious question whether Netanyahu’s government—whose ministers have no interest in improved relations with any Palestinians—can pull off this balance.

Biden spent much of his speech not just assuring Israelis, but also rallying American empathy to Israel’s cause. He described Hamas as “pure unadulterated evil,” likened its attack to “the worst rampages of ISIS,” told stories of whole Israeli families being murdered or taken hostage, and conveyed “the anger, the pain, the sense of hopelessness” that rises up when losing family. (He didn’t mention the loss of his son, Beau, to brain cancer, but he has talked of it before, in similar terms.) He also confirmed that at least 11 Americans were killed in Hamas’ attack and that some number of Americans are being held hostage.

“This is a moment for the United States to come together, to grieve together, with those who are mourning,” he went on. Perhaps with a nod to reports of protests and clashes between pro- and anti-Israel crowds, he said, “There is no place for hate in America—not against Jews, not against Muslims, not against anybody.”

It was a speech of determination, but also a plea for hope and balance in Israel and here at home. The next few days and weeks will show how that’s going.