U.S. Open picks for matchups, prop bets and placings at Torrey Pines
The 121st U.S. Open starts Thursday morning at Torrey Pines in San Diego California.
Groups and tee times for the first two rounds were released Tuesday, and with those come U.S. Open prop bets and matchups. Below, we look at the top 18- and 72-hole matchups for the third men’s major championship of the year, as well as the best value prop bets.
Jon Rahm, ranked No. 1 in the Golfweek/Sagarin men’s ranking, is the betting favorite this week in his first event since being forced to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament due to a positive test for COVID-19.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
First-round matchups
Collin Morikawa (+188) vs. Justin Thomas (+175) vs. Brooks Koepka (+163)
MORIKAWA (+188) is the pick in this early morning (10:29 a.m. ET) grouping. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green for the 2020-21 season and will be able to stick his iron shots close in the softer, easier morning conditions.
He also has the best Round 1 scoring average of the three at 69.93 for the season.
Max Homa (+250) vs. Xander Schauffele (+110) vs. Phil Mickelson (+200)
Three California natives are grouped together for the opening two rounds. Mickelson is coming off his historic PGA Championship win, Homa won the Genesis Invitational in February and Schauffele is the highest-ranked of the three at No. 2 in the Golfweek/Sagarin ranking.
Back MICKELSON (+200) with his edge in experience on Torrey Pines’ South Course. His 45 rounds played are the most in this field. He also opened last month’s Wells Fargo Championship with the first-round lead with a 7-under-par 64.
Jordan Spieth (+138) vs. Scottie Scheffler (+200) vs. Will Zalatoris (+200)
SCHEFFLER (+200) has a considerable distance advantage over both Spieth and Zalatoris to make him the pick in this afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET) group. The soon-to-be 25-year-old had to withdraw from last year’s U.S. Open, but he tied for eighth at the PGA Championship last month. He leads the Tour in total driving this season.
Matchups (72 holes)
Jon Rahm (-175) vs. Dustin Johnson (+140)
This tournament matchup pits Golfweek’s top-ranked player in Rahm against Johnson, who’s still No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Rahm is my pick to win this week as the U.S. Open betting favorite but the value on JOHNSON (+140) is far too great to pass up.
Johnson is a two-time major winner while Rahm seeks his first. This should be much closer to a pick ’em.
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Bryson DeChambeau (-125) vs. Brooks Koepka (+100)
We won’t get to see the Twitter rivals play together until Saturday at the earliest, but bettors can still get action via the 72-hole matchup.
Take the value with KOEPKA (+100), a four-time major champ, at even money. He has the advantage in SG: Approach and experience at Torrey Pines against the Tour’s SG: Off-the-Tee leader.
List
U.S. Open: Torrey Pines South is beautiful, but the course design could be so much better
Jordan Spieth (-110) vs. Justin Thomas (-110)
Back THOMAS (-110) with his advantages in driving accuracy and iron play over Spieth. He comes into the week at No. 2 in the OWGR, as well. The thick rough of Torrey Pines and the U.S. Open could cause troubles for Spieth’s reliance on scrambling if he continues to spray his drives.
Placings
Top 5: Jon Rahm (+190)
In a major or any strong-field event, it’s a good idea to hedge your outright bets with a top-5 or top-10 wager. Especially when still getting a plus-money payout for the placing bet.
Rahm is the favorite to win the US Open at +900 with those odds returning a profit of $900 on a $100 bet. Put a similar-sized bet on the top-5 finish to recoup your potential losses in case he comes up short. If he wins outright you cash both tickets.
Top 10: Marc Leishman (+600)
Leishman won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in 2020 and tied for second in both 2010 and 2014. He won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event with partner Cameron Smith earlier this year, and his putting and iron play has been in excellent form. He also tied for fifth at the Masters in April.
Top player
Top English: Matt Wallace (+1100)
Wallace shares just the sixth-best odds in this nationality pool. He’s a strong fit for the course and the U.S. Open conditions while 19th on Tour in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards and averaging 0.78 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round.
Place your legal, online 2021 U.S. Open bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C., at BetMGM. Risk-free first bet! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Top Rest of the World: Cameron Smith (+1000)
Smith is averaging 0.85 SG: Tee-to-Green and 0.62 SG: Putting per round. He has also averaged 0.97 strokes gained on the field per round over 15 career rounds on the South Course at the Farmers Insurance Open.
First-round leader
Patrick Reed (+4000)
Reed isn’t a bad bet to win the U.S. Open at +2500, but he offers a higher payout for the first-round lead when conditions at Torrey Pines will be most similar to the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s fourth on Tour this season in Round 1 scoring average.
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Check the yardage book: Torrey Pines South Course for the U.S. Open
