Is U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz in or out? Republicans lining up to run as she weighs decision
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The fate of Indiana's 5th Congressional District is a big question mark heading into 2024 as the growing field of candidates contends with a crucial wild card: incumbent U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz.
The Noblesville congresswoman announced in February she would not seek reelection to the 5th District after winning a second term in 2022. Since then, Republican candidates have been lining up for the chance to replace her.
But in an email to IndyStar in early December, Spartz said she has colleagues and constituents who want her to run again and noted that there is a "better" Speaker leading the House.
“I still feel that I need to take some time off to regroup unless a few key issues I have been working on are not going to happen in the next month or so," Spartz said in the email. "Then I might have to reconsider.”
If Spartz changes her mind and runs again, it could lead to difficult conversations for Republicans in the 5th District and statewide, said Chad Kinsella, an associate professor of political science at Ball State.
About 10 Republicans have filed forms so far indicating a run for the 5th District seat, according to the Federal Election Commission. The official filing period for candidates opens in January and closes in early February.
"Just the fact that she's even musing about sticking in it is going to is going to have a chilling effect across the district," Kinsella said. "What's the strategy now? Do I keep spending money? It's tough, man. There's gonna be a lot of frustration among the party, the party faithful and elite."
Two Republicans have almost $1 million in the bank each, and one said Spartz's decision won't affect his plans.
On the other side, Democrats have several parties interested in a run for the 5th Congressional District, but nobody has made plans public yet, said Cynthia Johnson, the 5th District Chair for Indiana Democrats.
Here is what we know ahead of next year:
Spartz or not?
A lot of factors could impact the Republican primary for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, including voter turnout and the presidential race, but the biggest is whether Spartz truly stays out of the race.
Since her announcement in February, Spartz has made shifting statements on her future plans. Ahead of a government shutdown deadline in September, she had a back-and-forth with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in which McCarthy said he wished Spartz would run again and not “quit.”
Spartz responded in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that “his wish might come true.”
A few weeks later, Spartz in a statement threatened to quit Congress if the body did not establish a commission to study the national debt.
In an email to IndyStar, Spartz said the issues top of mind for her right include the debt commission proposal, improving border security through "tightening" the asylum process and working on strategy tied to the war in Ukraine, where the congresswoman was born.
If Spartz does remain off the ballot and the number of Republicans running remains high, the primary is likely to come down to who has money and a base to get their name recognized, Kinsella said.
"This is one where if we have this many people running in a primary and that it's a low turnout, it could be anybody's race," Kinsella said. "You could see a surprise occurring."
More: Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz calls House Speaker Kevin McCarthy 'weak' in shutdown debate
Candidates and money
The Republicans who've taken steps to run for the 5th District seat so far include current elected officials and business owners.
The total number of candidates who actually run will depend whether new people jump in, dip out or do not fulfill campaign filing requirements ahead of the official filing deadline in early February.
The following people had filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission as of mid-December. Madison County Prosecutor Rodney Cummings also filed a statement of candidacy but withdrew from the race in August.
Chuck Goodrich
Siddharth Mahant
Patrick Malayter
Lonnie Dale Powell
Matthew Peiffer
Jeremy Edom
Raju Chinthala
Mark Hurt
Max Engling
Scott Goad
Goodrich and Mahant both had close to $1 million on hand as of the end of September, according to the most recent data available from the Federal Election Commission. At the end of that same time period, Spartz had about $366,000 on hand.
Goodrich, a Noblesville resident, is currently a member of the Indiana House and president and CEO of Gaylor Electric. Mahant, also a Noblesville resident, runs a trucking and transportation company.
Goodrich's campaign did not respond to questions from IndyStar about his plans should Spartz decide to run. Mahant, in an email, said he heard rumors that Spartz might run again, but it does not change the plans for his campaign.
Redistricting and the 5th seat
Following a close 2020 race in which Spartz won election to Congress over her Democratic opponent by about 4 percentage points, the Indiana General Assembly’s 2021 redistricting put the 5th District seat further into Republican hands.
Lawmakers that year removed all of Democratic stronghold Marion County from the 5th Congressional District and added most of Delaware and Howard Counties to the seat’s boundaries.
From 2021: Indiana Republicans' proposed redistricting map keeps Victoria Spartz's seat safe
Those moves were reflected in 2022’s results for the Fifth District, in which Spartz defeated Muncie Democrat Jeannine Lee Lake 60% to 40%.
Democrats still see opportunity for the seat, which Johnson, the party’s chair for the 5th District, called “an increasingly purple district" despite the 2022 results.
The primary election is May 7, and the general election is Nov. 5.
Contact IndyStar's state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at brittany.carloni@indystar.com or 317-779-4468. Follow her on Twitter/X @CarloniBrittany.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 2024 election: U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz won't rule out reelection run
