U.S. Senate 2022: Two North Carolina parties at war with themselves
You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find North Carolina’s last truly open U.S. Senate race.
Our politics were a bit different back then.
Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Richard Burr sat so squarely in the center of their respective parties that they cruised to primary victories without meaningful opposition.
One wonders if Bowles, with his strong stance against deficit spending, or Burr, with his vote to impeach President Trump, would get so much as a second glance from their parties’ faithful today.
In 2021, the national Republican and Democratic bases aren’t just more conservative and more liberal. They’re at war with themselves, undergoing massive realignments sparked by populist revolts on both sides.
North Carolina is a perfect microcosm of those tensions – every Democratic and GOP faction has a foothold in the Tar Heel State. So, while November will get all the glory, national observers should tune in next March: our U.S. Senate primaries could tell the country a lot about where its political parties are headed in the next presidential race and beyond.
Consider the GOP race, the first major post-Trump-presidency primary:
Firmly in an establishment, country club Republican lane rides former Gov. Pat McCrory. A self-branded “Eisenhower Republican,” McCrory’s announcement steered clear of all the issues energizing base GOP voters — not a single mention of God, gun rights, abortion, election security or, most notably, President Trump.
As another commentator noted last week, with near universal name ID and a still-rosy image among Republicans, McCrory would have been a lock several elections ago, like Burr in 2004. But in the era of Trump populism and insurgent conservatives, McCrory’s campaign is a big test for the old establishment.
Another question the Republican primary could resolve: where do evangelical voters fit in today’s GOP? Are they now part of the Trump base, or still a separate political movement? North Carolina’s evangelicals have historically created high electoral floors for candidates such as Mark Harris and Mike Huckabee. Former Congressman and minister Mark Walker occupies this lane (Huckabee endorsed him), though he’s trying to scoop up establishment voters, too.
And then there’s the pure Trump base, the voters who were energized by the Tea Party movement and want a political warrior, not a political philosopher – someone who will confront coastal elites, establishment institutions and cancel culture. In other words: a second coming of Jesse Helms. Rising GOP star and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s decision not to run left an opening for last week’s announcement by Congressman Ted Budd. Hugging Trump, Budd pledged to “crush the liberal agenda” in a campaign launch aimed right at MAGA voters.
The Democratic field has its own lanes that reflect the changing politics of national Democrats:
Former state Sen. Erica Smith is a Bernie Sanders sympathizer running a Stacey Abrams-style grievance campaign. But unlike Abrams, and very much like Sanders, Smith has a bona fide grievance: Chuck Schumer undermined her bid for the party’s nomination in 2020.
Washington pols seem to view state Sen. Jeff Jackson as another Cal Cunningham: a mainstream white male lawyer and veteran. But Jackson is further left than Cunningham, with the voting record to prove it. He’s more like a Beto O’Rourke, raising national activist money and wooing affluent urban liberals and college town progressives.
In reality, North Carolina’s first African-American Chief Justice, Cheri Beasley, is more of an establishment candidate, and probably the most formidable general-election nominee for Democrats. Beasley faces an ideological challenge similar to McCrory’s: is there enough space left in her party for an old-school candidate? Can she occupy the “business progressive” lane pioneered by former Gov. Jim Hunt — followed by Mike Easley and, to a lesser extent, pre-2016 Roy Cooper — and win a hotly-contested primary?
In any event, pay attention early. November’s election may tell us which party controls the U.S. Senate. But the March primary will tell us more about where both parties are headed over the next decade.
Contributing columnist Ray Martin is a former press secretary for Republican N.C. Sen. Phil Berger and managed the Republican Senate Caucus political operation from 2012-2018. He is a partner with The Differentiators, a Raleigh consulting firm.
