In 2018, the global economy was basically being pulled along by the United States

- as extra cash from tax cuts and government spending flowed through global markets.

But if U.S. policy pushed the world higher then, then it’s U.S. policy that now threatens to pull it further under.

[IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, saying:] “... we are predicting that the world economy will contract by about 5 percent this year.”

The country’s response to the pandemic has emerged as a chief risk to sustained global recovery - despite President Donald Trump’s assertions that business is back on track.

[U.S. President Donald Trump, saying:] “...our economy is roaring back. It's coming back extremely strong."

The U.S. government committed roughly $3 trillion to help its economy weather the coronavirus storm.

[Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, saying:] "It will deliver historic relief to Main Street America."

But the disease is still surging to record levels just as those support programs are due to expire.

For other major economies, that’s a weight added to their own struggles.

The U.S. economy accounts for about a quarter of world gross domestic product.

Much of that is service-related.

And a lot of the virus’ direct impact is tied up in industries like restaurants, which have weak links to the global economy.

But the connections are still there.

A lost job leads to lower consumer spending, which leads to fewer imports.

Year-to-date U.S. imports through May are down more than 13%.

And officials around the world are on edge.

[U.N. Aid Chief Mark Lowcock, saying:] "...the associated global recession are about to wreak havoc ..."

Take Germany - whose response to the pandemic was considered effective.

Its exports to the U.S. plunged by more than a third year-over-year in May.

In Japan, the speed of recovery is seen to be directly tied to U.S. efforts.

Places like Canada will be especially hard hit.

Around three quarters of its exports go to the United States.

On the southern border, it’s a grim picture for Mexico, too.

Its president undertook a risky visit to see Donald Trump in July - couching it as a matter of economic necessity.

The International Monetary Fund warns of another risk factor: social unrest.

It warns of a rise due to growing poverty within the United States.

The IMF projected U.S. GDP will shrink this year by 6.6%.

And had a gloomy outlook for the world as a whole.

[IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, saying:] “Nearly 95 percent of countries will likely be worse off in 2020 with lower per capita income than last year."