The UCB (EBR:UCB) Share Price Is Up 27% And Shareholders Are Holding On

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By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at UCB SA (EBR:UCB), which is up 27%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of -9.4% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 12% in the last year , including dividends .

See our latest analysis for UCB

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

UCB was able to grow its EPS at 25% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 8.3% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ENXTBR:UCB Past and Future Earnings, January 28th 2020
ENXTBR:UCB Past and Future Earnings, January 28th 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on UCB's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for UCB the TSR over the last 3 years was 32%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

UCB shareholders have received returns of 12% over twelve months (even including dividends) , which isn't far from the general market return. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 4.5% per year. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. Before forming an opinion on UCB you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on BE exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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