UCF football predictions: 3 reasons to worry, 3 reasons to hope in 2022 season

UCF capped off Gus Malzahn's first season as "state champions," celebrating a 29-17 win over Florida two days before Christmas in the Gasparilla Bowl.

That evening, Malzahn hinted that the "best is yet to come."

In the months since, UCF reeled in its highest-ranked recruiting class in program history according to 247Sports and confirmed that its impending move to the Big 12 will be official effective July 1, 2023.

There's a surge of positivity around the program, a belief the Knights can mount another New Year's Six charge in their final American Athletic Conference go-round. UCF was picked to finish third in the league behind fellow Big 12 defectors Cincinnati and Houston.

Malzahn made, arguably, the first major decision of the fall last Sunday when he named Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee the starting quarterback. Plumlee last played the position in 2019, spending the past two seasons at wide receiver, but he offers the sort of dual threat the veteran coach desires.

More: John Rhys Plumlee named UCF Knights starting quarterback, head coach Gus Malzahn confirms

It's a polarizing decision, to be sure. Mikey Keene flashed plenty of potential in a tough spot last year, thrust into the starting role when Dillon Gabriel — now at Oklahoma — suffered a season-ending collarbone break.

But will it define, or even derail, UCF's charge toward a fifth and final American Athletic Conference crown?

Let's take a look at three reasons to believe in the Knights, and three more to be skeptical about them.

Reasons for optimism

1. Huge Sunshine State slate: UCF will hardly need to board a plane to complete the 2022 regular season.

The Knights play nine of their 12 games in Florida, including seven home dates. They will travel to Florida Atlantic in mid-September, and close the campaign with one last War on I-4 against USF on Thanksgiving weekend.

Boca Raton and Tampa are alumni strongholds, and the last two bowl game sites for UCF. Knights fans will travel well and, depending on their rivals' records, potentially make it feel like a home game.

What's more, virtually all of the Knights' marquee opponents visit the Bounce House — err, umm, FBC Mortgage Stadium — this fall. The ACC duo of Louisville and Georgia Tech head to Orlando, as does American dark horse SMU and defending league champion and Group of Five playoff pioneer Cincinnati.

UCF does not cross state lines until Oct. 22 when it heads to East Carolina. Malzahn's group will kick off November with back-to-back journeys to Memphis and Tulane.

2. Experienced, loaded backfield: When Isaiah Bowser was available, the Knights were simply a different, far more physical proposition for opposing defenses to contend with.

The fifth-year senior, who transferred to UCF last year from Northwestern, carried the ball 159 times in just eight appearances. He rushed for 703 yards and nine touchdowns, matching a single-game program record with four scores against Bethune-Cookman.

Bowser's downhill, between-the-tackles style blends perfectly with home-run hitter Johnny Richardson. The junior, a Lake Wales grad, averaged 7.0 yards per carry to post the team lead for the season (733).

Wellington graduate Mark-Antony Richards (309 yards, five TDs) and Trillion Coles (184 yards, one TD) are also back. RJ Harvey, who impressed last summer upon arrival from Virginia, recovered from an ACL tear. Early enrollee Jordan McDonald and all-purpose freshman Xavier Townsend might earn chances to contribute, and are key pieces for the future.

And then there's Plumlee, who set Ole Miss' freshman rushing record with 1,023 yards and 12 touchdowns in his lone full-time season at quarterback.

There is massive potential for prolific numbers on the ground with that group of ball-carriers, three returning interior linemen (Samuel Jackson, Matt Lee, Lokahi Pauole) and a transfer influx of size and experience at the tackle spot (Ryan Swoboda, Tylan Grable).

3. Similar depth in the secondary: Asked by reporters what advice he had for teams that dared to test UCF's secondary, junior safety Quadric Bullard instantly replied, "Don't."

UCF allowed 210 passing yards per game last season, good for 35th in the country. Diving a little deeper, the Knights' opponents averaged 5.86 yards per attempt, the fifth-best mark throughout the Football Bowl Subdivision.

All five defensive backs who started the Gasparilla Bowl — Bullard, Divaad Wilson, Davonte Brown, Justin Hodges and Corey Thornton — return. Dyllon Lester and Brandon Adams each played 12 games and several portal additions (Jaiden Francois, Koby Perry) and freshmen (Nikai Martinez, Ja'Cari Henderson, Demari Henderson) could rotate in.

Martinez has been a standout performer throughout fall camp. Assistant head coach/defensive backs coach Addison Williams said the four-star recruit out of nearby Apopka has honed in on the nickelback spot during fall camp.

"The guy is a football player," Williams told reporters earlier this week. "He's a guy that is physical and smart. He knows what leverage to play with, what tempo to play at. I'm definitely excited to see him in game situations.

"It's one thing to practice, but to be in the game situation — in the stadium, the lights are on, the cameras are on, all the fans are out there — how's he going to respond? I think he's going to do a good job."

One area where the Knights could make a jump is third-down defense. UCF was in the middle of the pack getting stops (37.8% conversion rate, 50th in FBS). Houston led the nation at 25.7%, while Cincinnati ranked 17th at 33.8%.

Reasons for pessimism

1. Lack of quality win potential: Running the table at the Group of Five level is simply not good enough to impress the College Football Playoff committee; this is not news to UCF fans, considering the Knights completed perfect seasons in 2017 and '18, and were left out in the cold.

Cincinnati had the benefit of a marquee road win over top-10 Notre Dame, which won the remainder of its 11 regular season games. Add in a down year across the Power Five, particularly in the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12, and it was a perfect storm for a G5 program to crack the field.

UCF does not have enough games that move the needle. Cincinnati is the only one of the Knights' opponents that opens the campaign in the AP Top 25.

Fans expecting the team to contend for the national championship this fall are likely to be disappointed. UCF should be in the hunt for one last AAC crown, and target a 10-win season, but it's unlikely it can achieve much more than that.

2. The passing game: This is not meant to squarely fall upon Plumlee's right arm.

The 6-foot, 200-pound senior dual-threat heard all of the criticism about his ability to accurately throw the football, saying, "People always have their opinions, and they're entitled to their opinions, but I choose to believe mine," after he completed 11 of 15 passes for 189 yards in April's spring game.

In his one season as Ole Miss' full-time starting quarterback, Plumlee's completion percentage sat at 52.7%. He threw for 910 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions.

By contrast, Keene hit on 63.6% of his throws as a true freshman for 1,730 yards with 17 touchdowns and six picks.

Wide receiver is a bit of a question mark beyond Gasparilla Bowl MVP Ryan O'Keefe and Auburn transfer Kobe Hudson. Brandon Johnson, who caught a team-high 11 touchdowns, graduated and Jaylon Robinson (Ole Miss) and Titus Mokiao-Atimalala (UCLA) elected to transfer.

Malzahn confirmed Amari Johnson will miss Thursday's game, at least, leaving the Knights somewhat shorthanded from an experience standpoint.

Alabama transfer Javon Baker, listed as the team's third starter when the Knights released their depth chart Monday, was a late arrival out of the portal. No other wideout on the roster surpassed double digits in receptions in 2021.

Expect the tight ends to play a big role — both returning redshirt senior Alec Holler and Florida transfer Kemore Gamble.

3. Who's starting at linebacker? Assuming the Knights' formation is largely a 4-2-5, the team's glaring hole next to Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste could be somewhat overblown.

Of all the team's transfer departures, Tatum Bethune's decision to reunite with Randy Shannon at Florida State is the most impactful. Bethune led the Knights with 108 tackles (60 solos), chipping in 5½ TFLs, two sacks and two interceptions.

UCF aggressively sought to add talent at the position via the portal. Terrence Lewis (Maryland) and Branden Jennings (Kansas State) were both top-12 national recruits at the position for the 2021 cycle, with Lewis earning a five-star rating per the 247Sports' composite.

However, it's the Knights' addition from the FCS ranks that seems the most sensible choice.

Jason Johnson was a first-team selection in the Ohio Valley Conference during his sophomore season at Eastern Illinois. The 6-2, 200-pounder tallied double-digit tackles on five separate occasions, leading the conference with 112 total and tying for the FCS lead with four fumble recoveries.

The future looks bright at the position, though. Defensive coordinator Travis Williams recruited Sanford Seminole's Kam Moore and Berkeley Prep's TJ Bullard in the 2022 cycle, and he's landed verbal commitments from four-star twins Andrew and Michael Harris, seniors at nearby Lake Brantley.

UCF Knights Schedule

Thursday S. Carolina State 7 p.m. ESPN+

Sept. 9 Louisville 7:30 p.m. ESPN2

Sept. 17 at Florida Atlantic 7:30 p.m. CBSSN

Sept. 24 Georgia Tech TBA

Oct. 1 SMU TBA

Oct. 13 Temple 7 p.m.

Oct. 22 at East Carolina TBA

Oct. 29 Cincinnati TBA

Nov. 5 at Memphis TBA

Nov. 12 at Tulane TBA

Nov. 19 Navy TBA

Nov. 25 at USF TBA

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: UCF football: 3 reasons for hope, 3 reasons to worry in 2022 season