MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 262.

UFC 262 takes place Saturday at Toyota Center in Houston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

Charles Oliveira (30-8 MMA, 18-8 UFC)

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 12: (L-R) Charles Oliveira of Brazil punches Tony Ferguson in their lightweight bout during the UFC 256 event at UFC APEX on December 12, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5'10" Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74"

• Last fight: Decision win over Tony Ferguson (Dec. 12, 2020)

• Camp: Chute Boxe/Macacao Gold Team (Brazil)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info: + Regional MMA titles + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + 8 KO victories + 19 submission wins + 14 first-round finishes + Aggressive pace and pressure + Improved boxing ability ^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts + Solid muay Thai arsenal ^ Dangerous knees and elbows + Hard leg kicks + Underrated wrestling ability ^ Strong takedowns from the clinch + Superb transitional grappler ^ Diverse submission acumen

Michael Chandler (22-5 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - JANUARY 23: Michael Chandler battles Dan Hooker during the UFC 257 event at UFC Fight Island on January 23, 2021 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5'8" Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69"

• Last fight: TKO win over Dan Hooker (Jan. 23, 2021)

• Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info: + 3x Bellator lightweight champion + 4x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler + 10 KO victories + 7 submission wins + 12 first-round finishes + KO power + Aggressive pace and pressure + Improved footwork and fundamentals ^ Will shift stances in combination + Dangerous right hand ^ Coming forward or off the counter + Excellent wrestling ability ^ Explosive level-changing takedowns + Good transitional grappler ^ Effective ground strikes and submissions

Point of interest: Pressure pit

Michael Chandler, right, vs. Benson Henderson at Bellator 243

The main event for UFC 262 features a vacant lightweight title fight between two parties who are very familiar with pressure. An inherent pressure-fighter who busted onto the UFC stage like a proverbial bull in a China shop, [autotag]Michael Chandler[/autotag] can seldom be found taking a back step in his contests. Carrying over the athletic ability and explosiveness that he demonstrated as a wrestler on the Mizzou mats, Chandler’s boxing technique made impressive strides back in his initial Bellator tournament run, which in turn helped him earn his first world title. From his upgraded punching mechanics to little details like rolling under his crosses, it was clear that Chander’s trajectory was upward. And despite a handful of notable bumps in the road and changes in training camps, the former Bellator champion still seems to be firing on all cylinders after settling into his current home at Sanford MMA. Now under the tutelage of Henri Hooft, Chandler appears to be furthering his fundamentals and footwork, moving much more fluidly in combinations and even adding in leg kicks of his own. The 35-year-old has also made a more concerted effort to go to the body in recent years, which should serve him well against his current counterpart. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392570537176567810?s=20 Nevertheless, Chandler is not beyond being caught or countered upon entry, as he’ll need to be careful of tunnel vision in regards to landing big bombs or looking for takedowns. Enter [autotag]Charles Oliveira[/autotag]. An offensive marauder who can Thai march forward behind a high guard, “Do Bronx” offers a plethora of problems standing. The Brazilian standout also possesses a long, prodding jab that he likes to use to set up right hands and leg kicks (which should be particularly potent considering Chandler's stance). Once establishing his range, Oliveira is quick to find creative elbows and destructive uppercuts that often change the complexion of a fight at the drop of a dime. However, Oliveira, too, is not beyond getting knocked off course, as his shelling guard style has traditionally opened him up to body damage. Regardless of which man hurts the other first, you can expect the action to fall to the floor shortly after should both parties still be conscious.

Point of interest: Gambling with grappling

May 30, 2015; Goiania, GO, Brazil; Nik Lentz (red gloves) fights Charles Oliveira (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Goiania Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Considering that both men are proven finishers on the floor, I will be curious to see if either fighter is confident enough to gamble in the grappling department. A four-time NCAA All-American standout who comes from a solid program and wrestling class, Chandler demonstrates the ability to dictate wrestling traffic in most of his fights. Whether Chandler is changing levels for a double or chaining off of a single-leg, the former Mizzou team captain can be difficult to deny when he puts his mind to taking someone down. Chandler’s reactive speed and almost karate-like footwork allow his level changes decent cover in the open, but the 12-year pro seems to get into most of his grappling exchanges against the cage. However, despite Chandler being the better wrestler on paper, I'd be careful about counting out the wrestling ability of Oliveira. Shortly after getting outwrestled by Frankie Edgar back at UFC 162, Oliveira worked diligently to improve that portion of his grappling game, as it’s now common to see the Brazilian outwrestling stronger fighters early and often (especially if he can get to a bodylock). But if Chandler is the one getting offensive with takedowns, then do not be surprised to see Oliveira revert to his home of front-choke counters. Oliveira is masterful from most front-headlock variations, displaying the acumen to shift the dynamic of a position as he unleashes interweaving submission attempts as if he’s firing them off from an M-60 machine gun. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392291220492218372?s=20 Still, Chandler has yet to be submitted and is not one to be controlled consistently, as I suspect the Brazilian's best chances for success may come within scrambling scenarios given the propensities wrestlers have when it comes to turtling and giving their backs. Luckily for Chandler, he’s more than just a wrestler. Linking up with high-level camps and catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson from early on in his career, we have seen the former Mizzou Tiger transform into a fine-tuned transitional grappler. From submission defense to the small details of fighting inside of someone’s guard, Chandler shows all the fundamentals from hand-fighting to head position, which, of course, opens up the opportunity for him to land his ferocious ground and pound. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1392276328397762560?s=20 Chandler is also not afraid to take backs that become available, but runs the risk of falling into the honeytrap of a high-paced fight should he allow things to get too wild. Oliveira, after all, is one of the best back-takers in the division (whether it be standing or inside of a scramble), as no one should be shocked if he's able to put Chandler through the paces.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - JANUARY 23: Michael Chandler battles Dan Hooker during the UFC 257 event at UFC Fight Island on January 23, 2021 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

The oddsmakers and public are giving the UFC veteran some deserved respect as the favorite, listing Oliveira -135 and Chandler +115 as of this writing. Despite my official pick and admitted bias toward past training history with Chandler, I don't disagree with Oliveira being favored in this spot. Not only will everything from front chokes to back takes be live during grappling exchanges, but Oliveira will also carry his improved ability to counter Chandler standing, as well as potentially punish him for his weighted lead leg with calf kicks. But bias aside, I still suspect that Chandler may be one of the worst matchups at lightweight for Oliveira on paper. Whether we're talking about his wrestling pressure or improved fundamentals from footwork to bodywork, Chandler has a lot of the tools needed to dictate traffic, which – along with the fact that this bout will be taking place inside of the bigger cage – is quietly a big factor in this fight. Oliveira, who is a pressure-fighter at heart, has a much easier time enforcing his presence and corralling opposition when fighting inside of the smaller octagon. And though he, too, pressures more often than not, he is also not beyond being forced to fight off the back foot for small stretches, as getting him to the cage hasn't been the hardest thing for fighters to do when they choose to. But with Oliveira's looming counters that were mentioned previously, the Brazilian has been able to bail himself out of tight spots and fight out of adversities that perhaps would have gotten the better of him in the past. In fact, both men surprisingly carry some baggage with the fans in regards to their history of being on the wrong end of weird stoppages – which I don't feel is fair to either fighter. I honestly believe that we're getting the best versions of these competitors, as this matchup is both insanely good and hard to forecast. Each fighter has shown past propensities to fade in different ways, as a late win on the ground can't be discounted for either party. Nevertheless, I still suspect that Chandler's style of ground fighting could replicate a lot of the successes we saw Paul Felder have back at UFC 218 should he avoid falling into a front-choke first (or getting too tired to the point where he shoots a desperate low-single that exposes his back). So, unless either fighter can catch the other cleanly on the feet in the first couple of frames, I predict that Chandler will able to execute takedowns and/or come out on top of early scrambles to score a stoppage via ground strikes by the third round.

Prediction: Chandler inside the distance

[listicle id=609608] [listicle id=596691] [vertical-gallery id=542722] [vertical-gallery id=463563]

1

1