UFC on ESPN 20 breakdown: The pick is a finish – but for Michael Chiesa or Neil Magny?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 20.
UFC on ESPN 20 takes place Wednesday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The card airs on ESPN.
Michael Chiesa (16-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6'1" Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 75.5"
Last fight: Decision win over Rafael dos Anjosi(Jan. 25, 2020)
Camp: Sikjitsu (Washington)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA titles + Amateur MMA accolades + High school wrestling experience + 11 submission wins + 5 first-round finishes + Aggressive pace and pressure ^ Upgraded strength and conditioning + Improved striking ability ^ Works best when coming forward + Deceptively strong inside the clinch ^ Solid underhook awareness + Diverse takedown ability ^ Hustles against the fence + Dangerous back taker ^ Slick controls and crafty chokes
Neil Magny (24-7 MMA, 17-6 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6'3" Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 80"
Last fight: Decision win over Robbie Lawler(Aug. 29, 2020)
Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info: + All-Army combatives champion + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt + 7 KO victories + 3 submission wins + 6 first-round finishes + Consistent pace and pressure ^ High-volume striker + Good footwork and movement ^ Angles well off of attacks + Long and accurate jab + Improved wrestling ability ^ Works well from bodylock + Solid transitional grappler ^ Scrambles and floats well +/- 5-3 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: Staying long
The main event on ESPN features a fun styles match between two ranked welterweights who utilize length in different ways. [autotag]Neil Magny[/autotag], who does a better job of staying long, can be a frustrating read when allowed to dictate range on the feet. Consistently circling and moving, Magny utilizes all 80 inches of his reach as he works his punches behind an accurate, long jab. Often doubling up with his lead, Magny makes sure he keeps his opponent’s eyes occupied while looking to set up his next shot. Magny has also been better about both his kicking offense and defense, but I suspect he shelves stuff like low kicks given the level-changing counters coming his way. Not afraid to catch kicks and secure takedowns, [autotag]Michael Chiesa[/autotag] makes no bones about getting things to the ground when he can. That said, the former lightweight seems far from lost on the feet (though his aggression can sometimes get the better of him). Largely relying on straight shots, Chiesa has no issue mixing in kicks into his repertoire when feeling in stride. However, Chiesa's striking combinations are still arguably a means to an end in regards to getting his grappling going, as The Ultimate Fighter winner is typically looking to close distance rather than keep it.
Point of interest: Hustling for positions
With Chiesa's grappling intentions being no secret, do not be surprised to see Sikjitsu product get after takedowns early and often. Although Chiesa traditionally does his best work along the fence, the former high school wrestling standout has shown a diverse takedown ability both in the open and against the cage. From the clinch, Chiesa demonstrates the competency to hit everything from inside trips to hip tosses. The 33-year-old also keeps solid reactive shots in his back pocket despite having a decent double-leg going forward. I can see Chiesa getting his counterpart down early in this contest, but keeping Magny down is an entirely different story. Diligently working his wrestling and jiu-jitsu with Elevation Fight Team, Magny has quietly become a menace to tangle with in close quarters. From his ability to create scrambles from negative positions to the smart decision-making that he displays with his single-leg getups, the former "TUF" contestant has come a long way in when it comes to sharpening his technique and weaponizing his cardio. Nevertheless, Magny will still need to mind his give-and-take sensibilities considering the specialist at hand. An inherent hustler for position who seems at home in a dogfight, Chiesa comes alive whenever he can get a glimpse of his opponent's back. Using his long frame and crafty controls, Chiesa appears to be a nightmare to get off, as Magny will need to be on his best behavior when scrambling. Magny, who is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, appears to have plenty of options from full-guard attacks to half-guard getups. And if he is able to survive the early storms from Chiesa, then none of us should be shocked to see Magny, once again, steadily turn the tides.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the more experienced welterweight, listing Magny -145 and Chiesa +125 at the time of this writing. Even though I can see why Magny would be favored to win, I find myself siding with the underdog here. I believe there is a reason for Chiesa calling out Magny since he first arrived in this division – as I suspect he sees something from a stylistic perspective. When looking at the fighters who have beaten Magny, they have largely been people who were able to stay in their own lane of specialization (e.g. Lorenz Larkin's leg kicks or Demian Maia's submission prowess). So, despite Chiesa being the more limited man on paper, this could simply be a case of "styles making fights." Couple all that with Magny's propensity to skirt along the fence, and it's fair to say that Chiesa stands a solid chance at upsetting the odds. But whether Chiesa's hunch is correct or not, I see this fight going one of two ways: Either Chiesa finds a finish within the first half of the fight or Magny picks up the pace and runs away with it after surviving the initial storm. My pick is for Chiesa's pressure to produce a submission come the second round. Prediction: Chiesa inside the distance
