UFC Vegas 63 odds, betting: How to bet Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen main event

The UFC returns to The Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night for UFC Vegas 63: Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen. It might feel like a letdown after last week's stacked UFC 280 pay-per-view event. However, it's a very competitive card from top to bottom, with most of the favorites lined at sub-minus-200 prices. Plus, the main event has the potential to be a banger.

Featherweight contenders Katter and Allen currently occupy the fifth and sixth spots in the rankings. The winner should be well-positioned for a title eliminator fight in early 2023. Kattar has already been knocked down a few rungs in the ladder after a controversial decision loss to Josh Emmett. On the other hand, Allen has run through the featherweight competition, compiling a 9-0 record with the promotion after making quick work of Dan Hooker earlier this year. Is Kattar his next victim as Allen continues his surge toward a title shot?

After opening as a small underdog (+105), Allen is currently the betting favorite at BetMGM (-115). It will be interesting to see if the line continues to move toward the rising contender in the biggest challenge of his career. Here's my best bet for the main event and two other correlated betting options that hold some value.

Calvin Kattar (+105) vs. Arnold Allen (-115)

Get ready for five rounds of fireworks. Allen gets a big step up in competition after battering Dan Hooker in a first-round stoppage that demonstrated his willingness to trade shots in the pocket until someone drops. Allen has the faster hands and a powerful left cross, but it's going to be his leg kicks that give Kattar the most trouble. Kattar is very good at solidifying his range while controlling the distance with his punishing jab. He is also strong at cutting off the cage, and Allen must find ways to make Kattar more of a stationary target by compromising his mobility. Throughout five rounds, Kattar's experience will be a key factor in his ability to dictate the pace and lure Allen into a boxing match.

Allen has all the tools to give Kattar trouble if he attacks his legs early and level changes into takedowns. But I am confident Kattar has the technical boxing to frustrate him on the feet and push all the right buttons to get Allen to trade combinations until someone falls. And considering Kattar has never been dropped in his 15-year MMA career, I'm betting "The Boston Finisher" gets the best of it. We saw Allen get rocked in fight-or-flight mode versus Hooker, and I can see Kattar piecing him up when Allen gets undisciplined with his striking defense.

Whether Kattar can put Allen away is anybody's guess, but it's not something we need to risk at this price point (-105). I'm betting more on Kattar's experience, composure and ability to battle adversity against elite competition. Allen will have his moments, but more of the fight should take place on the veteran's terms and help him win rounds. Success is rarely linear in the fight game, and just like Kattar before him, Allen will have to take another step before reaching the top. Kattar takes this one in a classic.

The bet: Calvin Kattar (-105)

Total: 4.5 rounds — Over (-135)/Under (+100)

The cost of the accumulation of damage is similar to paying taxes. You can get extensions year after year, but ultimately when the payment becomes due, it's never a good time. That's my only concern for Kattar in this matchup, but I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe that time is near. He has been in there with the division's elite and has proven to be one of the most durable fighters in the sport. Kattar's iron beard absorbed 445 strikes in his unanimous decision loss to Max Holloway, and he kept coming forward. Allen will surely test his chin, but you won't find me betting against Kattar's durability. Allen's ability to pace himself over five rounds is a question, but I still see the over 4.5 rounds as a solid way to wager on the fight without having to sweat out the judges' scorecards.

The bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-135)

The prop option

The likelihood of Kattar lasting all five rounds and getting his hand raised is higher than the 32% implied probability, creating some line value here. It's a good price for his most likely win condition. Kattar has finishing ability, but coming off a loss, I expect him to fight more technically sound without being overly aggressive. Plus, I'm expecting Allen to utilize his wrestling some to slow down the fight's pace. I usually won't delve into the prop market when I'm getting a good price on the moneyline, but I can certainly understand wanting to layer your wager with this plus-money prop.

The bet: Calvin Kattar by Decision (+215)

Stats provided by ufcstats.com.