UK intel says Russia might again target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter
Russia may have the capability to amass significant quantities of cruise missiles, raising concerns about the possibility of renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the upcoming winter season, the UK’s Defense Intelligence wrote in their morning Ukraine report on Sept. 16.
Drawing from open sources, intelligence reports indicate that Russia has been firing fewer cruise missiles at Ukraine since April, while at the same time Russian leaders said they intended to boost missile production.
The report specifically highlights the use of air-launched cruise missiles, notably the modern AS-23a KODIAK (Raduga X-101), in Russian offensives from October 2022 to March 2023. These missiles are launched from within Russian territory, from strategic bombers.
Read also: Ukraine can expect more blackouts this winter – but how many and for how long?
Earlier, Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukrainian military’s Main Intelligence Directorate or HUR, revealed that Russia has been manufacturing dozens of Kalibr cruise missiles and a smaller quantity of Iskander missiles each month. He emphasized that Russia’s missile production capacity remains limited, insufficient to cover present launch rates and to replenish stockpiles to pre-invasion levels.
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, has warned that there may be renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by Russia this winter. He said that the upcoming Ukrainian winter is expected to be exceptionally challenging.
When asked about the potential severity of the upcoming Russian winter missile campaign compared to the previous one, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the President’s Office, pointed out that Ukraine’s energy system is currently in a much worse state than last year.
Read also: Ukraine can expect more blackouts this winter – but how many and for how long?
Despite the likelihood of continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the upcoming winter, UK intelligence notes that Ukraine demonstrated its capability to maintain the energy grid even in wartime conditions last winter, thanks to a qualified workforce and relevant experience.
From October last year, Russia launched a series of massive missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Over several months, Ukraine endured more than 10 waves of extensive Russian bombardments, with the enemy employing dozens of missiles of various types and ranges.
Due to capacity shortages in the energy system, Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy had to implement power outages for consumers. Nevertheless, despite the challenging winter for Ukrainians, the enemy failed to achieve its goal of causing a complete blackout in Ukraine.
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