UK Labour Party’s Poll Lead Slips to Slimmest Since Sunak Took Power

(Bloomberg) -- The UK Conservative Party is continuing to gain ground on Labour, with a new poll showing Rishi Sunak’s Tories with their smallest deficit since he became prime minister in October.

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Keir Starmer’s Labour Party saw its lead over the Conservatives slip three percentage points over the past week to 14%, according to a survey of 2,000 potential voters released Monday by Redfield & Wilton. That’s the slimmest margin since before former Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to leave office after just 49 days amid a public backlash to her controversial budget plans.

Despite the change in leadership, the Conservatives had trailed Labour by around 20 points in recent surveys. The poll follows a series of Sunak actions, including an extension to the UK’s free childcare offering, a new post-Brexit deal regarding Northern Ireland and a policy aimed at tackling migration across the English Channel.

Sunak is planning a general election for October or November of next year, The Telegraph reported citing people familiar with his thinking. Back in February the new chairman of the party also suggested the second half of 2024 would be the best time to call a vote.

Redfield & Wilton said the recent narrowing was driven by a return of voters who supported Conservatives in the last election in 2019. Some 62% of them now say they would vote for the party again. That figure had dropped to as low as 37% under Truss.

Labour still holds a substantial lead and Starmer’s personal approval rating continues to exceed Sunak’s.

The risk for the opposition is that the prime minister continues to turn his party’s fortunes around. Next month, Sunak’s campaign abilities will be tested for the first time in local elections across England.

(Adds details from Telegraph report and context from previous story on general election timing in fourth paragraph.)

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