UK military would remain in independent Scotland for 20 years
Britain’s Armed Forces would remain in an independent Scotland for at least 20 years after it left the United Kingdom, new analysis suggests.
Prof Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute, said the Scottish National Party (SNP) would be forced to rely on the British Armed Forces for decades if it ever secures independence.
The Scottish Government last week unveiled plans for defence in an independent Scotland that included the creation of a separate Scottish military.
But Prof Chalmers said such a force would have to grow “under the protection of” and remain “very closely integrated” with the British Armed Forces.
“There’s no suggestion (in the paper) that all UK forces will ever withdraw,” he said. “They say our most enduring security partnership will be with the UK.
“So to me that suggests that after 20 years of independence, there will still – if there’s a need to do so – there’ll still be UK conventional forces on Scottish soil.”
The new Scottish Government blueprint, entitled An Independent Scotland’s Place in the World, admits there would have to be a “transitional period” in which Scotland would not have the “level of capability” enjoyed by other small countries.
It does not disclose any estimates for the cost or timescale of setting up a new military, or details of what it would involve beyond a “land component”, a “maritime component” and an “air component”.
Meghan Gallacher, the Scottish Conservatives’ shadow constitution secretary, said: “Another wafer-thin prospectus for independence is the last thing the people of Scotland need or want.
“But it really shows the SNP have no credible plan for defence.
“They can’t have it every way – Nato membership but no deterrent. Spending money on Armed Forces when they can’t even launch a couple of ferries.
“The SNP-Green government should prioritise the job they actually have, rather than waste taxpayers’ money on their fixation with division.”
Removal of Trident
The document also calls for the removal of Trident, Britain’s nuclear deterrent which is currently based at Faslane and Coulport on the Firth of Clyde, in “the safest and most expeditious manner possible”.
But Prof Chalmers said “rapid expulsion” of Trident would be tantamount to “the forcible denuclearisation of the UK” and would scupper Scottish nationalists’ ambitions to join Nato and the European Union.
“I cannot imagine amicable divorce which involves the forcible denuclearisation of the UK, which rapid expulsion would be,” he said.
“In those circumstances, you would get a very strong reaction from the UK which would hold the whole process hostage.”
Faslane and Coulport are the only nuclear-capable naval facilities in Britain, meaning a new home would have to be built in England which Prof Chalmers said would take “at least a decade”.
Angus Robertson, the SNP minister who unveiled the report, denied that removing the deterrent would embolden Vladimir Putin.
This is despite Nato being a nuclear-tipped alliance and Trident forming part of its “supreme guarantee” of its members’ security.
Prof Chalmers added that it would also be in Britain’s interest to preserve the Royal Air Force’s quick reaction base at Lossiemouth, west of Inverness in north-western Scotland.
That would require a separate “basing agreement” much like those which the United States has for its 13 bases in southern England, further complicating any independence negotiations.
The Scottish Government report also proposed the creation of a single Scottish Security and Intelligence Agency to replace MI5, MI6, GCHQ and Defence Intelligence.
The document provoked ridicule when revealed last week for claiming that espionage would be conducted “in line with Scottish values”, support “Scotland’s role as a good global citizen” and improve national security “whilst promoting and protecting human rights”.
The document also proposes Nato membership and spending two per cent of GDP on defence in line with the alliance’s recommendation.
A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “As proposed in the paper, upon securing a vote for independence, this Scottish Government would pursue negotiations with the UK Government for the removal of nuclear weapons from Scotland as quickly as possible, but just as critically, done safely.”
