Can UK upset Louisville in Governor’s Cup? Reporters across the state make their picks.

Louisville is a seven-point favorite in the 2023 edition of the Governor’s Cup rivalry, but Kentucky has won the last four games in the series, including three in blowout fashion.

Can the Wildcats continue that success despite a disappointing 2023 season to date? Will Louisville continue to role after a 10-1 start to the Jeff Brohm era?

We polled reporters from around the state for their predictions for the game.

Herald-Leader staff predictions

John Clay: Louisville won’t miss this opportunity to reverse course in the rivalry and tie a bow on its magical regular season. Louisville 34, Kentucky 14.

Cameron Drummond: U of L’s dream season under hometown head coach Jeff Brohm continues with a first rivalry win over Kentucky since 2017, as the commonwealth’s two most prominent college football programs continue to trend in opposite directions.. Louisville 31, Kentucky 20.

Mathew Graf: If momentum means anything, Louisville has all of it and Kentucky has none of it. The ACC is 4-2 against the SEC this season, U of L is at home, the Cardinals are thirsting for a Governor’s Cup and Jeff Brohm wants to get the jump on Mark Stoops. The only reason to pick Kentucky is to be contrary. We’ve seen little evidence UK can play 60 minutes of winning football, which is what Saturday will require. Louisville 23, Kentucky 13.

Jon Hale: As Louisville wrapped up its win over Miami on Saturday, I was planning to pick Kentucky. Then the Wildcats’ offense posted another clunker in the loss at South Carolina. Now, I’m not sure Louisville’s weak strength of schedule matters. We have no proof Kentucky is better than the ACC teams Louisville has beaten. Kentucky’s tendency for undisciplined play also makes it easy to see scenarios where the rivalry emotions are not channeled productively. Louisville 21, Kentucky 14.

Other media predictions

Dick Gabriel (Big Blue Insider): If we see a clean effort from Kentucky — few penalties, no turnovers — the upset will happen. Otherwise, it could be a disappointing day for the Wildcats. Kentucky 27, Louisville 21.

Mike Rutherford (Card Chronicle): One of the best things about getting Jeff Brohm for Louisville fans was once again having a head coach who truly understands the rivalry. Despite having the conference championship game against Florida State in a week, there won’t be any concern about this Cardinal team overlooking Kentucky. There won’t be any whining from the head coach about Wildcat players throwing L’s down either. Louisville 31, Kentucky 23.

Jeff Drummond (Cats’ Illustrated): I’ve spent the entire season convinced that the Cats would win this game, regardless of how many wins the Cards were stacking. UK is better than a lot of the ACC teams that have given U of L trouble but cannot be trusted at this point to play disciplined, execute, and make winning plays when they matter most. Louisville 31, Kentucky 26.

Justin Rowland (Cats’ Illustrated): This game is very interesting to me. Under almost any other conditions I would say the pressure is on Louisville given how the rivalry has gone, but UK needs this to salvage something, anything this year, and U of L is in the ACC title regardless. This should be a fairly ugly defensive game. Kentucky 24, Louisville 20.

Darrell Bird (The Cats’ Pause): Forget any mid-level bowl game, this is Kentucky’s postseason Saturday at L&N Stadium. Before South Carolina, I would have bet UK would have no trouble spoiling U of L’s dream season. Now, I’m not sure they have the stomach to show up given the rapid implosion of this season. Louisville 28, Kentucky 17.

Aaron Gershon (The Cats’ Pause): I was all set to pick Kentucky, even with Louisville’s outstanding season to date, until watching the Cats meltdown against a bad South Carolina team. A big part of Louisville’s success is because of the weak schedule it has played, but the Cards find ways to win in the fourth quarter, and the Cats have been finding ways to lose. Louisville 28, Kentucky, 21.

Ryan Black (The Courier Journal): The Wildcats, who have won four straight games in this series, won’t get run off the field Saturday. And they will enter the fourth quarter with a chance to pull the upset. But a UK turnover on the game’s final drive seals an 11-1 regular season for Louisville and first-year coach Jeff Brohm. Louisville 28, Kentucky 24.

Mark Ennis (The Drive): UK has entered this game with significantly more emotional energy just about every year since 2014. It’s a testament to Mark Stoops that he knows how to have a team ready for a rivalry game. Now, Louisville has one of those guys in charge, too. Add to it that Louisville has been a different team at home all year. It’ll be closer than anyone wants but Louisville ends the UK winning streak as long as they don’t help UK with mistakes. Louisville 30, Kentucky 24.

Matt Jones (Kentucky Sports Radio): Kentucky leads most of the game but U of L’s late game good fortune gives them a home win. Louisville 24, Kentucky 23.

Adam Luckett (Kentucky Sports Radio): One team thrives in close games and the other crumbles. Kentucky’s defense will take away the run game, but they won’t have enough offense to win. Louisville’s dream season continues. Louisville 24, Kentucky 14.

Nick Roush (Kentucky Sports Radio): Louisville is 5-0 in one-possession games. Kentucky has played three games that were within one score in SEC play and lost all three. Even if Kentucky can get off to a hot start and force some doubt to creep into the minds of the Cards, one team has proven they can perform under pressure. The other has not. Louisville 24, Kentucky 14.

Keith Taylor (Kentucky Today): The Cards have shown they belong in the top 10 and the Wildcats have regressed in the last two months. Kentucky did nothing in the loss at South Carolina to convince me of a two-week turnaround. Louisville 30, Kentucky 14.

Matt McGavic (Louisville Report): These two teams are trending in very opposite directions right now. Even with as good as Kentucky’s run defense and running back Ray Davis have been, Louisville has shown the ability to overcome both good run defenses and good running backs at various points of the season. Throw in the fact that U of L has been insanely efficient at home, and that UK’s passing offense has had its struggles, I think the Cardinals finally snap their rivalry losing streak. Louisville 35, Kentucky 21.

Dylan Ballard (Sea of Blue): There is no doubt the Cards are flying high right now and the Cats are definitely limping in. Most would think if someone some how picked the Cats to win it would be because of the recent history. I personally think Mark Stoops and company will succeed due to the stakes of this game and they hear the noise. Kentucky 27, Louisville 24.

Larry Vaught (Vaught’s Views): I thought this would be an easy pick for UK when the season started, but Cards have been the more consistent team and have shown they know how to win close games, something UK has not done. The atmosphere this Saturday is worth at least a touchdown for the Cards. Louisville 28, Kentucky 24.

Kendrick Haskins (WAVE): U of L will get pressure on Leary and force at least one turnover. The U of L offense won’t be explosive, but should be able to make enough plays to win. Louisville 27, Kentucky 17.

Dominique Yates (WLKY): Right now, Louisville has more confidence, has the home-field advantage, but maybe most importantly, it has Jeff Brohm. I say the rivalry is back. Louisville 24, Kentucky 17.

Jordan Adams (WDKY): The Cards will get the win because they have a legitimate shot at making the playoff with Florida State losing their quarterback. I can’t see them letting their biggest rivals ruin what could be one of their best seasons in program history. Louisville 28, Kentucky 20.

Michael Epps (WDKY): If the Cats would have won down in Columbia I would have more confidence in them in rivalry week, but it’s hard to see this reeling offense keep up with a 10-1 Louisville team. Kentucky has the mental edge in this rivalry but that might fade in the first quarter on Saturday as some guys in that locker room could already be halfway out the door. Louisville 38, Kentucky 17.

Tyler Greever (WDRB): The Cardinals have proven they can find ways to win various types of games this season. Kentucky has lost five of its last six. Yes, the recent history favors UK and I expect the Wildcats to compete, but the Cards are playing better complementary football right now and should capitalize to end their rivalry skid against a struggling Kentucky team. Louisville 31, Kentucky 21.

Tom Lane (WDRB): Cardinals end the four-game losing streak to the Wildcats to go to 11-1, but it doesn’t come easy in the first real close game in the series in a while. Louisville 24, Kentucky 20.

Kent Spencer (WHAS): Both programs are headed in opposite directions this season. Louisville 28, Kentucky 14.

Fred Cowgill (WLKY): Will be closer and harder than some think. Louisville 28, Kentucky 21.

Hallie DeVore (WTVQ): Louisville is just overall a stronger team right now. Kentucky is still struggling with executing on offense and I think it will be hard to find that against Louisville. Louisville 34, Kentucky 17.

Forrest Tucker (WTVQ): I picked UK to win this one before the season, but recent form for the Cats has changed my mind. I don’t think this is a year for a close one either. Kentucky finds the end zone with their defense at least once after Brad White’s unit showed a lot of aggression versus South Carolina. Louisville 27, Kentucky 20.

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