UK weather: How many more heatwaves will there be this summer?

Sunday was the joint hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures reaching 32.2C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire

Sheerness, Kent, UK. 25th June, 2023. UK Weather: sunset at the end of an unusually extremely hot day on the east coast at Sheerness, Kent with temps up to 30C on the hottest day of the year. Credit: James Bell/Alamy Live News
The sunset on Sunday at Sheerness, Kent, as temperatures topped 30C in the UK. (Alamy)

The Met Office is not ruling out that there will be more heatwaves this summer.

It told Yahoo News UK there is a "greater than normal chance of heatwaves" between the middle and the end of July.

Many parts of the UK were officially declared in a heatwave by the Met Office on 13 June after a spell of hot weather, and on Tuesday, the Met Office said this June was on track to be the hottest ever.

Sunday was the joint hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures reaching 32.2C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, matching the previous high set on 10 June in Chertsey, Surrey.

Coningsby is where the UK’s hottest ever temperature of 40.3C was recorded on 19 July last year.

Warmest UK June temperatures on record. See story WEATHER Warm. Infographic PA Graphics. An editable version of this graphic is available if required. Please contact graphics@pamediagroup.com.
The warmest June temperatures on record in the UK so far. (PA)

Separately, independent forecasters the Weather Company have said there could be five heatwaves in the UK between now and September, the Daily Mirror reported.

On Tuesday, the Met Office said this June is on track to be the hottest on record.

It said it has not recorded a June this hot since it began collecting temperature data in 1884.

Despite a cooler forecast for the final few days of the month, this June is expected to top the previous mean average record of 14.9C set in both 1940 and 1976.

Mike Kendon, a climate information scientist at the Met Office, said: “With only a few days of near-average temperatures forecast for the remainder of the month, overall, this June will turn out to be provisionally the hottest June on record for the UK for both mean and average maximum temperature."

Undated handout photo issued by the Met Office of a graph showing the mean average daily temperature for June. This June is set to be the hottest on record, the Met Office has said. A cooler forecast for the remaining few days will not be enough to prevent June 2023 from exceeding the previous mean average record of 14.9C set in both 1940 and 1976. The Met Office has not recorded a June this hot since it began collecting temperature data in 1884. Issue date: Tuesday June 27, 2023. PA Photo. See PA story WEATHER Warm. Photo credit should read: Met Office/PA Wire 

NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used in for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
This June is on track to be the hottest on record. (PA)

He said the month began with high pressure over the UK, bringing dry and sunny conditions.

Once that high pressure subsided, warm and humid air "took charge over the UK", he said, leading to high temperatures.

Read more: UK heatwave - how hot is too hot?

Kendon said: “What has been particularly unusual is the persistent warmth for much of the month, with temperatures reaching 25C widely for at least a fortnight, and at times 28C to 30C – whereas we would more typically expect maximum temperatures in the high teens or low 20s at this time of year.”

Warmest UK June temperatures. (PA)
The highest UK June temperatures in recent years. (PA)
Torquay, UK. 24th June, 2023. A sea mist comes in over Torquay after a very hot day. Credit: Thomas Faull/Alamy Live News
A sea mist comes in over Torquay, Devon, on Saturday. (Alamy)

In its long range forecast for the two-week period between 12 and 26 July, the Met Office said there is the possibility of high pressure, which could bring warmer conditions, as well as heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

It said: "Indications for above-average temperatures are stronger, meaning the occurrence of heatwaves carries a correspondingly higher likelihood. However, at the moment, there is no signal for exceptional heat in this period."

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What's the threshold for a heatwave in the UK?

According to the Met Office, a heatwave is "an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity".

The Met Office said the UK heatwave threshold is when when a location records a "period of at least three consecutive days" with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold.

This threshold varies by UK area, from 25C in Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the north and south west of England, to 27C and 28C in the south east of England.

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