With Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive ongoing, West starts to think about 2024 spring offensive
Military strategists and policymakers across the West are already starting to think about a 2024 spring offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 13.
When Kyiv’s counteroffensive began in the spring, optimists hoped Ukrainian troops could replicate their success last year in routing Russian forces. But an initial attempt to use newly supplied Western tanks and armored vehicles to punch through fortified Russian lines stalled, the WSJ said.
Since then, progress has been slow and painful, relying on small-unit tactics. A renewed push could still be in the offing. But military leaders and policymakers already are grappling with the question of what can be achieved in the next few months and how to prepare for a protracted conflict, as reported by WSJ.
Read also: Pentagon chief and General Milley praise Ukrainian counteroffensive – Ambassador Markarova
A nagging concern in Kyiv and Western capitals is that politicians and voters may come to see the war as a quagmire and sour on supporting Ukraine. Even if Kyiv’s Western backers stay resolute, clocks are ticking as Ukrainian forces burn through munitions, manpower, and stamina for a grueling fight.
“Kyiv’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin, and elsewhere that their support hasn’t been misplaced — and should continue,” the report says.
Read also: Russian forces are overwhelmed as Ukraine steps up counteroffensive
“Rain and snow might slow operations of heavy equipment such as tanks, but Ukrainian forces have proven most effective so far when operating in small units, often with lighter equipment.”
“The Ukrainian military continues to adapt faster than the Russian military,” said Gordon “Skip” Davis, a retired U.S. Army major general and former NATO deputy assistant secretary-general.
By next spring Kyiv will have both more Western equipment and more skilled operators of the gear, he said.
“As time passes, Ukraine will eventually employ more of its NATO-trained and equipped brigades, while Russia will struggle to maintain its rate of fire and its front-line coherence,” Davis said.
Read also: Ukraine can deploy 75% more forces for counteroffensive — retired officer
WSJ reiterated that Ukraine has committed only a portion of its best-trained troops to the offensive, and only some of the more than 60,000 Ukrainian troops trained by NATO militaries have been drilled in combined-arms operations.
By the middle of next year, Ukraine might also be flying U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters, which European operators of the plane, including Denmark and the Netherlands, are eager to donate. Pressure is mounting on Washington to provide ATACMS long-range ground-launched rockets and on Germany to offer Taurus cruise missiles, the WSJ reported.
Read also: Ukrainian counteroffensive seeing notable success on southern front, says military
The West might also eventually provide more advanced equipment, such as sophisticated drones capable of air attacks.
“Strategists looking to next year and beyond hope that over time — even as Russia reinforces impediments to Ukrainian assaults — Ukrainian troops can acquire the skills and experience that allow them to outmaneuver and outsmart Russian forces,” the report says.
Since the beginning of June, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have undertaken a counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine, progressively liberating occupied territories and securing positions on recaptured frontiers.
While the Ukrainian counteroffensive is difficult, the initiative is on the side of Ukraine and things are even more difficult for Russia’s invading forces, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Aug. 6.
The newest thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is toward Ukraine’s southeast, The New York Times reported on July 27. The counteroffensive operation is complicated with large areas of mined land and relentless enemy artillery fire.
Ukrainian defenders “step by step continue to create conditions for advancing,” Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Aug. 7.
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