When will Ukraine be accepted into NATO and what will happen next? - opinion

We will have a powerful economy and a powerful national defense industry.

It was very important to attend the Shangri-La security forum. Our delegation was able to focus attention on Ukraine, and around 60% of the discussion on all panels was Ukraine-centric. It could have been not in our favor, for example, regarding the next so-called peace plan of the Indonesian minister. He made a proposal to conduct referendums and create buffer zones, etc. Of course, I was asked to comment everywhere, on all panels.

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We had to react and explain immediately that we already see a queue of countries wishing to reconcile with us, mostly undemocratic ones. The simple rule of any mediator, facilitator, or mediator is to first record and identify the parties' interests. Our interest is very simple: to live in a peaceful country that is not occupied, and to have normal, friendly relations with everyone. And the interest of Russians was voiced in the so-called "SVON" - this is denazification, demilitarization, "deNATOization," etc. Essentially, they want to erase the Ukrainian nation from the face of the earth because, in their opinion, we do not exist. Therefore, I say, first identify the interests of the Russians, whether they have changed. If it has changed, then the so-called ZOPA (zone of possible agreement) becomes clear. If not - stay in line, we'll figure it out without you, let them go first.

And the story about the younger brother was really impromptu because the Chinese, how to put it delicately...

It was very uncomfortable for them that since the time of Mao Zedong, China had been the younger brother and the Soviet Union the older brother. And in the Chinese language there is no concept of equal brothers, there are older and younger, it's a hierarchical history. So I allowed myself to tell my Chinese counterpart that now, as I understand, China has become the older brother and Russia the younger one. So as the older brother, you can advise them to do certain things. They really want to subjectivize and show their uniqueness, so there is now a competition to see who can be the mediator. But there is one nuance: they all want to be mediators on Russia's side, so such mediation is definitely not suitable for us, because there is no impartiality, no real independent mediation. So we will wait and we will win.

Prevention of a new Russian attack is possible if we have a strong army or a sector of security and defense forces. We will have a powerful economy, a powerful national defense industry. There is no secret, there is no invention. Israel has demonstrated this, that a small country that was surrounded by hostile neighbors for decades, with the support of the West, with financial support primarily of strategic partner, the United States, but developed its own army and defense industry. And today, Israeli weapons are considered some of the best, they ensure the existence of their country. I am a national industrial protectionist, I am for us to develop our own defense industry, both in the public and private sectors. We are doing everything for this.

We are practically completing the defense review. There is an interesting thing that few people paid attention to. We started doing it last summer. We are finishing it to understand our overall capabilities and screening our defense capabilities. There will be recommendations and maybe we will propose them to the National Security and Defense Council. Perhaps a bulletin will be born out of this. But the main thing is that today this war has demonstrated that it is very difficult to win without modern technology. Yes, in the first days, weeks, months, we met the enemy thanks to the courage of the Ukrainian nation. But then there was modern weapons that allowed us to correct the imbalance. The imagination of many capitals around the world in which we and you fall, Kiev in three days and Ukraine in three weeks, was based on one mistaken assumption. It was assumed that the large Soviet army would fight the small Soviet army. Fortunately, over eight years of hybrid war, starting with the occupation of Crimea, our army has changed. We are no longer a small Soviet army, we are a different army. We have a lot of creativity, especially now during mobilization, a lot of civilians serve in the army, and this also changes the logic of decision-making, behavior, reactions, etc. This is our advantage over the Russian Soviet army.

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I am criticized, but I insist on the thesis that there are wedding drones that film weddings while protecting lives. There are Chinese drones and modern powerful drones, not only Turkish but also Ukrainian. We have simplified the system of putting any technological things into service, previously it took two years. Now - two to three weeks and you can put your product into service. Today we give a chance: as Silicon Valley was born in garages, so modern Ukrainian drones are born in garages that fall, fly, crawl, dive, observe, strike and will continue to do so. This is our key difference today, we also discussed this with British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: Russians use the meat grinder tactic for their people, they use them as cannon fodder. And our key value is the lives of our warriors, defenders and protectors. For this, we must use modern technologies, and for this, we must develop our military-industrial complex. Combat testing in Ukraine will be a sign of quality, and any company that produces weapons or is associated with weapons will dream of having its branch here, joint production with us. And we need to fight for these markets, we need to bring these markets here.

We have grounds, and we have today a crazy set of different weapons, artillery of only about nine types of 155mm + 105mm, armored vehicles, tanks, etc. But they will all require repair and maintenance, which means it is easiest to do repairs and maintenance here, in Ukraine, rather than transporting them abroad. And aviation too. Therefore, there is a good basis for developing our military-industrial complex today, then we will definitely not give the Russians a chance to return here with revenge. Plus, security architecture, of course.

About the security architecture formulas for Ukraine outside of NATO. For example, the United States has bilateral agreements with Japan, which is not a NATO country, they have a bilateral agreement. And so, in principle, before we become a NATO country with you (and I am convinced of this) de jure, because de facto we have already practically become one, we will need bilateral agreements that will guarantee security from powerful players, such as the United States, Britain. I think that will be enough. When I meet with defense ministers of NATO countries and the Ramstein club, let's call it that, because there are 54 countries there, this is more than NATO countries, then at such closed meetings there is a discussion, especially after the application we submitted that we are ready to join NATO. As our President Volodymyr Zelensky says, in 2008 they showed us the policy of open doors, but where are these doors - no one can find them. So can you see these doors?.. One minister who is very much for us says: you know, we created NATO to counter the threat primarily from Russia or the Soviet Union. And today, the only country in the world whose armed forces successfully fight the Russians is Ukraine. So tell me, please, what other arguments do you need to invite Ukraine to NATO?

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My feeling is that NATO is ready internally for us to become members of the Alliance. The only thing they won't do until the end of this war is because they won't have a unanimous vote. There, as you know, the vote must be 100%, and every country has the right to veto it, even those that are still under the influence of, such as Hungary. But I am convinced that when it becomes clear that this war is over with our victory, and there will be further discussions on contributions, reparations, bringing Russians to justice in the International Criminal Court, then such a vote will be absolutely realistic.

We have a very good friend, Kaisa Ollongren, Minister of Defense of the Netherlands, who always concludes her speech at our meetings by saying, "Alexey, I know you need to win this victory so that we can free our hands and vote 'yes,' so I wish you this victory very much."

We have an approved missile program, which is already officially funded by the budget. The performers of this program are 100% Ukrainian productions, industry. As you know, a successful project, for example, Neptune, with which we sank the flagship last April. For the second time in the history of the Russian fleet, this has happened. It is now the most famous dive site in the Black Sea, which I promote to everyone. Even in Singapore, I invited divers, saying, "Join our team, after the victory, I invite you to visit this dive spot in the Black Sea with me." And we did it with Ukrainian Neptune missiles. Moreover, I invite everyone to visit the exact clone of the cruiser Moscow, which is located in Mykolaiv at the shipyard, you know, there were four of them. Admiral Neizhpapa will be giving a tour, first on this ship, and then diving to the remains of that ship.

We have very good prospects for having Ukrainian missiles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. Our partners often hesitate to give us more weapons because they are afraid of escalation and show concern. I strongly urged them to give us Harpoons - anti-ship missiles to defend our coast, ports, and other targets. It was technically difficult because we don't have many ships with launchers, so we had to make ground-based launchers, which took time. After we hit Moscow with Neptune missiles, a decision was made after a week to give us Harpoons. Today they serve together with Neptunes, and you know that the liberation of the Snake Island happened thanks to Harpoons. When our partners know that our missiles with certain names fly further than 200-400 kilometers, I am convinced that ATACMS and everything else will appear, because they will want them to work in such a good pair.

Regarding the evolution of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Probably, I would prioritize it. Number one is still air defense. We need to close our sky everywhere, not just over large cities (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipro, Lviv), but over all cities. It must be of different types (short, medium, long-range). For example, in Kharkiv - 38 kilometers from the border with Orcostan, there should be a system similar to the Israeli one, an analogue of the Iron Dome against Hailstones, Tornadoes. And a little further - this is already against cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and so on. The same terrorist Iranian drones today strike our air defense not thanks to powerful air defense systems, but with paired large-caliber machine guns, an infrared thermal imager provides guidance. Mobile groups have already learned to cope with them. Therefore, the air defense system must be multi-level, and we must invest in it.

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Secondly, of course, this is artillery and ammunition for it. We will soon replace the Soviet caliber of 152 mm with 155 mm, accordingly, we should have our own factories that will produce shells. In order for artillery to work normally, for counter-battery combat, there must be radars, anti-radar and drones that will lead. Shock drones are mandatory. To avoid using the expression "suicide drones," somehow politically incorrect with respect to the Japanese, I say suicide drones. Russian electronic warfare means are very powerful, they learn well, so we need to have our own electronic warfare systems to jam their drones. They use Lancet-10 as striking, Orlan-10 for guidance and reconnaissance, so we must definitely counter them.

Armored vehicles - we have a good foundation, the best tanks of World War II T-34 were made in Kharkiv. With us, a national armored fist can be easily created with you. I recently tested the Oplot tank, there are not many of them yet, but it already exists. I tell you, as the youth say, "it's a thing."

We have fantastic Stugna and Corsair, anti-tank weapons, all of this is done by our MIC. Therefore, we can do everything, let them knock on us and then ask us to sell to them.

How I see the development of the armed forces after the war. Cooperation of several departments is very important, where the Ministry of Strategic Industries will be the key ministry that will create conditions for the development of MIC and ensuring the Defense Forces. The Ministry of Digital Transformation, as an accelerator, will provide design and modern approaches, breakthrough ideas. Planning and ordering should be done by the Ministry of Defense. And the fourth partner is the Ministry of Economy, because they are responsible for the mobilization plan and economic development.

If we don't invest money in our security and defense sector, we will have problems again. Today, the Minister of Finance practically gives all the money to the Minister of Defense so that we can continue to buy shells and ammunition. But believe me, if we didn't have material and technical assistance, and we already received more than $100 billion not from our budget, we wouldn't be able to sustain it. Because modern wars, and this is a conventional war, are wars of resources in the first place. Therefore, we need to develop not just armed forces, but also the security and defense sector.

It's a simple thing. With the late Denis Monastyrsky, may he rest in peace, we discussed at some point that, for example, in the statute of the National Guard, which was responsible for the security of critical infrastructure objects such as the Chernobyl nuclear power plant or Zaporizhzhya, it says "object protection". And the key understanding was that there should be defense of objects. One word, protection-defense. And the idea is what? If you protect, you have firearms, document control, and that's it. And defense is missiles, rocket launchers, armored vehicles, even artillery, reconnaissance, and so on. So there should be a different approach.

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The same applies to the State Border Service. Each ministry must have its own management point in case of war. I'll tell you one secret: the vast majority of ministries, including the Ministry of Culture, Youth and Sports, etc., had those backup command posts in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Because we thought there was no enemy there, far from the West, but it turned out to be the opposite. We will fundamentally change the concept of security and defense sector development according to NATO standards. Because three things are key to being an Alliance partner. The first is civilian democratic control, the second is transparency of procedures and accountability, and the third is joint operational planning. Compatibility is required for joint operational planning. We already have modern NATO weapons, but now we need to establish a compatibility system, which means that our armed forces and security and defense sector must be similar to theirs, then it will be easy to do those joint planning.

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