Ukraine Latest: US Is Expanding Its Training for Kyiv’s Forces

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(Bloomberg) -- The US sanctioned Vladimir Potanin, Russia’s richest tycoon but left his company, mining giant MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, untouched as it tries to maintain stability in the metals market.

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A top Ukrainian army commander warned there’s “no doubt” Russian forces will attempt to seize Kyiv as soon as January after failing in the spring, potentially from a staging ground in Belarus. At the same time, Ukraine’s top defense official said Russian forces are fast running out of the types of missiles used to damage energy targets in a two-month campaign.

The Pentagon confirmed plans to expand its training in Germany for Ukrainian forces.

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Key Developments

  • EU Nations Back Russia Sanctions on Drone Imports, Banks

  • War in Ukraine Hinges on Who Gets More Rockets and Shells First

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s Defender

  • US Sanctions Russia’s Richest Tycoon, Nornickel Boss Potanin

  • Keeping Europe’s Lights On Comes at a High Cost

On the Ground

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiyivka in the east, Ukraine’s General Staff said in its latest update. Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district in the central Dnipropetrovsk region overnight and parts of the Mykolaiv region in the morning, local authorities said. The city of Kherson was hit by artillery fire, with Russian shells hitting residential areas and killing a woman and a child and injuring two people, according to the local military administration. Russia hit Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv with C-300 missiles Thursday afternoon, Kharkiv region governor Oleh Synehubov said on Telegram. Several warehouses were damaged.

(All times CET)

Serbia’s President Sees War Extending Through 2023 (10:45 p.m.)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said the war in Ukraine would probably last through 2023. Vucic made that observation while discussing his country’s economic plans and forecasts for the coming year.

“Both sides are running short of ammunition and of military personnel,” he said. “Both have lost some of their best troops.”

EU States Back Russia Sanctions on Drone Imports, Banks (10:45 p.m.)

European Union member states reached a deal on a ninth package of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, targeting Moscow’s access to drones, additional banks as well as officials responsible for allegedly abducting children from Ukraine.

The measures, which enter into force once published in the EU’s official journal, were agreed by the bloc’s ambassadors Thursday evening and affect more than 100 individuals and dozens of entities, according to people familiar with the matter. The EU also agreed to ban direct exports of drone engines to Russia or third countries, such as Iran, which could then supply drones to Russia.

The sanctions were expected to target three banks, including the Russian Regional Development Bank, four media outlets, export restrictions on chemicals and technologies used for military purposes, and more than 100 individuals and entities, Bloomberg reported previously.

US to Expand Training in Germany for Ukraine Forces (9:28 p.m.)

The Pentagon’s spokesman confirmed that the US will significantly expand its training in Germany for Ukrainian forces.

About 500 Ukrainian troops would be trained a month, “basically at battalion level,” Brigadier General Pat Ryder told reporters.

The expanded instruction will include “joint maneuver” and “combined arms operations training,” he said. The US already has trained 3,100 Ukrainian troops, according to the Associated Press.

Ukraine Cites Concern About Former Georgian Leader’s Health (8:33 p.m.)

Ukraine’s authorities are concerned about the significant deterioration in the health of Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia who opposes its government and is jailed in his native country, according to the Foreign Ministry in Kyiv.

Kyiv is demanding that Georgia provide necessary treatment to Saakashvili, who holds Ukrainian citizenship, and provide for Ukraine’s ombudsman to check on his health.

Saakashvili was arrested on his return from exile to Georgia in 2021. His health deteriorated after he declared a hunger strike in prison.

Ukrainians Abroad May Spend $20 Billion This Year, Pyshnyi Says (7:30 p.m.)

Total spending by Ukrainians who are abroad may reach $20 billion (€19 billion) this year, mainly as they tap savings and receive money wires from Ukraine, central bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi wrote in a column for the Kyiv-based Ekonomichna Pravda website.

He said that 4.5 million Ukrainians are living in the European Union, 87% of them women with children. If two-thirds of Ukrainian migrants continue to require support, it may cost the EU as much as €73 billion per year.

Yet, as they increasingly are finding employment, the influx of migrants from Ukraine may allow euro region countries to bolster their labor force by as much as 0.2% to 0.8%, Pyshnyi said. Ukrainians already have paid more in taxes in Poland since the war’s start, he said, than its government had spent in aid to them.

Poland Lifts Objection to EU Package That Includes Ukraine Aid (4:49 p.m.)

Poland has lifted its objections to an EU package deal that includes €18 billion ($19.1 billion) in financial aid for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.

Warsaw had been holding up the package over questions related to a minimum corporate tax provision.

US Sanctions Potanin, Russia’s Richest Tycoon (4:31 p.m.)

The U.S. sanctioned Vladimir Potanin, Russia’s richest tycoon and the president and biggest shareholder of mining giant MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, but left his company untouched as it tries to maintain stability in the metals market.

The action was part of a broader sanctions package the Treasury Department rolled out, targeting some 40 people linked to Russia’s government.

Read the full story.

Ukrainian Army Chief Says Russia May Attempt to Take Kyiv Again (4:26 p.m.)

There is “no doubt” Russia will make another attempt to capture Ukraine’s capital after being repelled soon after its Feb. 24 invasion, Ukraine’s army commander-in-chief told The Economist.

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi told the magazine that the Kremlin is accumulating resources for another attack, which may start from the Donbas in the east, Belarus to the north, or from the south.

Ukraine needs help from its partners in the form of 300 tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 Howitzers to be able to restore the borders as they were before Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, he said.

Russia Is Running Out of Missiles, Ukraine Security Chief Says (3:48 p.m.)

Russian forces have enough firepower for three or four more missile barrages of the kind that have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the past two months, Kyiv’s top defense official said.

“We understand how much they’ve expended so far — we understand that they don’t have so many,” Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said in an interview on Wednesday.

As the Kremlin’s missile reserves are depleted, “we are becoming mightier in air defense,” he said.

Exploding Gift from Ukraine Injures Polish Police Chief (2:03 p.m.)

An explosion at Polish police headquarters caused minor injuries to the country’s top police commander and a civilian employee, Poland’s interior ministry said.

A gift the commander received from one of the heads of Ukrainian services during a visit to Ukraine on Dec. 11-12 exploded, the ministry said. Poland has asked Ukraine for an explanation.

Sanctioned Billionaires Sue Over EU Order on Assets (2:55 p.m.)

A group of sanctioned Russian billionaires, including Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, have picked a fight with the European Union — challenging an order to declare all their assets from luxury villas to bank accounts within six weeks or face prosecution.

The lawsuits follow a July ultimatum from the bloc to individuals targeted by an asset freeze following the Kremlin-led invasion of Ukraine.

Ghana Says Burkina Faso Paid Russian Mercenaries With Mine (2:45 p.m.)

Ghana’s president alleged the government of neighboring Burkina Faso gave Russian mercenaries a mine as payment to help fight an insurgency in their country.

Nana Akufo-Addo, is in Washington for the US-Africa Leaders Summit, raised the claims at a meeting Wednesday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to a statement from the department.

Russia’s Asian Oil Flows May Be Wobbling (1:50 p.m.)

There are tentative signs that Russian oil exports from a key port in Asia, southeast of Vladivostock, are dipping following G-7 sanctions targeting Moscow’s petroleum revenues.

In the 10 days since the oil price caps began, 4.4 million barrels have been loaded onto tankers at Kozmino, tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg News shows, half the month-ago level.

Zelenskiy Calls Again for ‘Effective’ Price Caps on Russian Energy (1:20 p.m.)

Ukraine’s president urged EU to impose “effective” price caps on Russian crude, petroleum products and gas.

“Those price caps should be such that the terrorist state is definitely deprived of the ability to finance the war at the expect of global markets,” Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an address to the European Council.

Russia Continues to Pound Civilian Infrastructure (1 p.m.)

Relentless Russian targeting of Ukraine’s energy plants and other key infrastructure, which now stretches more than two months, shows little sign of fading.

Since Dec. 8, Moscow’s troops have conducted 41 rocket and 32 single-use drone strikes on civil infrastructure and energy facilities in 17 settlements, including Kyiv, according to Oleksii Hromov, deputy chief of Ukraine’s general staff.

Ukraine’s air defense shot down 22 drones during that time, he said.

Gazprom Daily Gas Exports Rise (12:30 p.m.)

Gazprom PJSC’s daily natural gas exports rose in the first half of December, signaling the first monthly increase since August, amid higher flows to China and eastern Europe.

The Russian gas giant shipped an average of 173 million cubic meters a day to countries outside the former Soviet Union from Dec. 1-15, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data published Thursday. That’s 30% higher than the daily average in November. The company has drastically curtailed shipments to parts of Europe since the start of the war.

Europe’s Gas Infrastructure Holding Up: Engie (12 p.m.)

Engie Chairman Jean-Pierre Clamadieu said Europe’s gas infrastructure has worked well this week during a cold snap, calling it a “good sign” for the rest of the winter.

Engie has completely replaced its Russian gas deliveries, with Norway, the US and a few other countries providing it with more supply and helping it rebalance its portfolio, Clamadieu said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Poland, Lithuania Holding Up New Russian Sanctions (11:30 a.m.)

Poland and Lithuania are blocking the EU’s ninth package of sanctions against Russia, according to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

Landsbergis told reporters in Vilnius that details on food security potentially open a loophole and the possibility for sanctioned Russian oligarchs to increase their wealth. “We cannot accept the proposal to ease restrictive measures to those oligarchs, who support and benefit from Putin’s regime, by amending a regulation and unfreezing their personal economic and financial assets,” Landsbergis said.

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