Ukraine 'highly unlikely' to make major breakthrough

Ukraine is “highly unlikely” to make a major breakthrough in its counter-offensive to retake territory held by Russia, senior US and Western officials have said, citing “sobering” intelligence.

Ukraine is struggling to break through Russia’s defensive lines in the east and south of the country and the map has barely changed since the highly anticipated counter-offensive began two months ago.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who has recently met with US commanders training Ukrainian forces in Europe, told CNN. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told the American news channel.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” another senior Western diplomat told CNN. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

While the autumn is set to bring the long sought-after Abrams tanks from the US, it will also bring more challenging weather conditions for advancing.

03:00 PM BST

Today's live blog is now closed

That’s all for today, thanks for following along. We will be back tomorrow ready for another day packed full of news on the Russia-Ukraine war.

02:59 PM BST

Kyiv says it prevented Russian hacking of armed forces combat system

Ukrainian special services have said they foiled an attempt by Russian hackers to penetrate the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ combat information system.

“As a result of complex measures, SBU exposed and blocked the illegal actions of Russian hackers who tried to penetrate Ukrainian military networks and organise intelligence gathering,” the SBU said in a statement on Telegram.

Hackers tried to gain access to “sensitive information on the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the location and movement of the Defence Forces, their technical support,” the statement read.

Responsibility for the attack lay with a sophisticated Russian hacking team, known within the cyber security research community as “Sandworm”. Cyber specialists in the SBU found that the hackers planned to use Ukrainian military tablets to spread viruses in the battle system.

02:49 PM BST

US Abrams tanks to arrive in Ukraine within weeks

The first set of American Abrams tanks is set to arrive in Ukraine in September, the US has announced, after signing off on the first shipment.

“They are done,” Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush told reporters in a briefing last night. “Now they have to get to Europe, and then to Ukraine, along with all of the things that go with them. Ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities. So you know, it’s not just the tanks, it’s the full package that goes with it. That’s still on track.”

Washington announced that it would send 31 Abrams in January and began in May training the Ukrainians on the tanks in Germany with training tanks.

The arrival of the tanks was sped up by a change in the model that will be delivered. The US had initially planned to send M1A2 Abrams to Ukraine but later decided that to instead refurbish the older M1A1 would drastically change the delivery timeframe.

02:03 PM BST

Watch: Ukrainian rescuers remove 63 tons of rubble in Pokrovsk

01:12 PM BST

Russia releases school textbook praising Ukraine invasion

Russia has released a new textbook for students ahead of the start of the new school year that defends Putin’s rationale for invading Ukraine. The textbook will be rolled out to all schools before September 1, the education minister said.

At a press conference in Moscow yesterday Russia’s education minister, Sergey Kravtsov, said the material was aimed at “conveying the aims” of the Ukraine war, which he said were “demilitarisation and denazification”.

Kravtsov also vowed to update the textbooks again after the end of the war, “as soon as we win,” according to RIA Novosti news.

“We are already winning the information war, but the special military operation will end, and it will end with our victory and of course we will supplement the history textbook,” RIA quoted him as saying.

The book is designed for 11th grade students – 17-year-olds – and covers a period from 1945 to the 21st century.

Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky admitted, and appeared to boast, of rewriting history.

“We completely rewrote the sections ‘70s’, ‘80s’, ‘90s’ and ‘2000s’. A new section has been added from 2014 to the present, including the special military operation,” he said.

12:44 PM BST

'Autumn set to be hotter than usual'

Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik has responded to the news that the US Abrams tanks will be arriving within a matter of weeks.

12:36 PM BST

The war in photos

12:31 PM BST

Russia says it hit an advanced command post in Pokrovsk attack

The day after a fatal attack that killed a minimum of seven people – mostly civilians and rescue workers – Moscow has said that it had struck a Ukrainian military command post.

“Near the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk in the Donetsk People’s Republic, an advanced command post of the Khortytsya joint group of Ukrainian troops was hit,” Russia’s defence ministry said, using the Russian name for Pokrovsk.

12:21 PM BST

Telegraph readers weigh on the events of the day

Below the line, Telegraph readers are discussing the consequences the war is having on both Ukraine and Russia.

Reader Mr S Redfern said: “The only winners in this war are, so far, the armaments industry. The only winners will be the armaments industry and those companies, probably mainly USA, France and Germany that will benefit from the rebuilding of Ukraine afterwards.

The losers are Ukraine and its people and Russia and its people. Any objective observer knows that Ukraine cannot shift the front line. Yes it can hit behind it and into Russia which will not serve any purpose other than invite heavier reprisal hits in return.”

Similarly, reader Tadcaster Tory argues: “The problem we now have is that Ukraine and Russia are racing each other down a death spiral into the dustbin of history, but neither side believes they can stop...

“Both countries now have wrecked economies and are literally bleeding their populations. Sorry to be a downer, but I think this has to be made to stop (somehow).”

Join the conversation in the comments section below.

11:31 AM BST

UK sanctions target Russia's defence systems

The UK added 19 new designations to its Russia sanctions list and six to the Belarusian equivalent this morning. The foreign secretary said that other sanctions across individuals and businesses in Iran, Turkey, Dubai, Slovakia and Switzerland were designed to cut off Russia’s access to foreign military equipment.

“Todays landmark sanctions will further diminish Russias arsenal and close the net on supply chains propping up Putins now struggling defence industry,” foreign minister James Cleverly said in a statement.

The government set out 22 new sanctions on individuals and businesses outside Russia who it said were supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict, as well as 3 Russian companies importing electronics key to Russias military equipment used on the battlefield.

Iranian drone makers who supply Russia were also on the list.

11:17 AM BST

In pictures: Pokrovsk today

11:13 AM BST

Zaporizhzhia region shelled 100 times yesterday

The Zaporizhzhia region was shelled more than 100 times yesterday, Yuriy Malashko, the regional military head posted on Telegram.

He detailed the 105 Russian shellings, three missile strikes, four attacks by unmanned air vehicles, and eight attacks by anti-aircraft.

Most of the shells were fired towards the region’s eastern and southern fronts, he added.

10:32 AM BST

In pictures: The counter-offensive toward Bakhmut

10:29 AM BST

SBU say they have exposed a female network working for Russia and Wagner

Ukraine’s security service (SBU) has exposed a female network of Russian agents working in the Donetsk region, it announced on it’s Telegram channel this morning.

“The peculiarity of the enemy group was that it consisted exclusively of local women who supported the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine,” the statement read.

The perpetrators allegedly worked for both the Russian FSB and the Wagner mercenary group.

“On the instructions of the occupiers, their accomplices collected intelligence on the number and redeployment of military equipment of the Defense Forces in the region,” it added.

The investigation suggested that all four “Russian agents”, residents of the Pokrovsky district, were recruited before 24 February 2022 and had been in “waiting mode”. The perpetrators face life imprisonment, the statement added.

Photos of the women with their faces blurred out were posted alongside the statement, as well as screenshots of the alleged passing of information.

10:01 AM BST

The Pokrovsk attack in numbers

The governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, has posted an update on the Pokrovsk attack last night.

“Updated data as of 11am (9am BST) regarding the victims of the shelling in Pokrovsk. Seven people died (five civilians, a rescuer and a soldier). 81 wounded (39 civilians, including two children – born in 2006 and 2012; 31 policemen, seven employees of the state emergency service and four military personnel). As of 11am, 12 high-rise buildings were damaged; hotel buildings, prosecutor’s office, pension fund, pharmacy, two shops, two cafes and two civilian cars.”

There has been some confusion as to whether the death toll stood at seven or eight, this is the latest update that we have.

09:51 AM BST

Poland to send troops to fortify border with Belarus

We reported on yesterday’s live blog that the Polish border guard requested that the defence ministry send a further 1,000 troops to its border with Belarus.

The defence ministry has just accepted that request.

The head of the Border Guard, Tomasz Praga, said this year 19,000 people had tried to cross the Polish-Belarusian border illegally, up from 16,000 last year.

The other threat from the border though are the Wagner forces on the other side. Poland reported a airspace violation of Belarusian helicopters last week. Belarus, backed by Russia, accused them of inventing the incident to justify their troop build up on the border. Russia has accused Poland of having territorial ambition for securing the border.

09:44 AM BST

What are the Lancet drones that Russia wants to bolster its stock of?

“A small, angular grey tube with two sets of x-shaped wings, the Lancet is capable of destroying vehicles many times its size and value.

The new version of the single-use Lancet has a range of about 30 miles, with a warhead that detonates on impact.

Often working in a pair with a second spotter drone, it is piloted via a joystick, much like a computer game, and has the ability to loiter in the sky until a target exposes itself.

They are not known to contain infrared or satellite navigation systems, making them far cruder than the Iranian-made Shaded drones.

Its warhead, around one to two kilograms, is relatively small, making it significantly less deadly than an artillery shell or high-precision missile.

However, they have become a thorn in the side for Ukrainian artillerymen, with many describing them as one of the main threats on the battlefield.”

Our correspondent Joe Barnes wrote an explainer on the Lancet drones last month. Now, Putin is ordering an increase in their manufacture, just as an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister suggested to Joe. Read the full piece here.

09:24 AM BST

Ukraine recommissions a nuclear reactor, promises full operations by winter

Ukrainian power plants inside territory held by Kyiv will be fully operational by winter to provide desperately needed electricity when the harsh weather hits, Ukraine’s atomic energy operator said last night.

“All the power at our disposal will be given to the electricity grid,” Energoatom chief Petro Kotin said.

Mr Kotin also warned how vital it is to regain control of the Zaporizhzhia plant, with a capacity of 6,000 megawatts, in order to supply electricity to Ukraine.

Ukraine currently has three power stations with a total of nine reactors in territory under its control.

“We will enter winter with nine reactors at full capacity,” Mr Kotin said, adding that four reactors currently under repair would be operational before November, with a total capacity of almost 7,600 megawatts.

The Zaporizhzhia plant, which houses six reactors, has been occupied by Russian forces since March 2022.

09:01 AM BST

The Telegraph's guide to Lancet drones, of which Putin is ordering a bolster in manufacturing

08:57 AM BST

Double tap: The Pokrovsk attack

Two rescue workers are among the dead, witnesses told a Reuters cameraman. Russia’s use of ‘double tap’ strikes – hitting once and then coming back for a second strike when rescue workers are pulling bodies out – was made infamous during their war in Syria. It’s a tactic they still use to this day in the opposition-held northwest of Syria.

The interior ministry said that 29 police officers and seven rescuers were injured. Two children and 29 civilians were also among the wounded.

Kateryna, a 58-year-old resident of Pokrovsk, was at home when she heard the first blast, according to Reuters reporting. She told a relative who called to check on her that she was all right but then the block was hit in a second blast.

“Thats it, bang and thats all. A flame filled up my eyes. I fell down on the floor, on the ground. My eyes (hurt) a lot,” Kateryna told Reuters, pointing at multiple scratches around her eyes. She had bandages on her forehead.

08:32 AM BST

US to send $200mn to Kyiv after fixing $6.2bn accounting error

The US, as soon as today, is set to send the first $200 million of weapons aid to Kyiv as it starts to dole out the cash from a Pentagon accounting error that overvalued billions of dollars of Ukraine aid.

Tuesday’s expected announcement of $200 million would be the first tranche of the $6.2 billion windfall of previously authorized Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA),Reuters reported.

Mine clearing equipment, TOW and AT4 anti-tank weapons, guns and ammunition, air defense interceptors made by Lockheed Martin Corp for the Patriot system, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets and Javelin anti-tank missiles made by a joint venture between Lockheed and RTX Corp, among other equipment, were supplied in the package.

08:27 AM BST

In pictures: The aftermath of the Pokrovsk attack

08:18 AM BST

Putin to give national guard heavy weaponry after Wager mutiny, MoD says

Russia is providing its national guard with heavy weaponry, the British defence ministry has said in its daily intelligence briefing on Ukraine.

On Friday 4 August Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law that will allow the 200,000 strong Rosgvardia national guard to be equipped with heavy weaponry, it states. The briefing suggests that the decision was made on the back of the Wagner mercenary group’s failed mutiny.

“Despite [Viktor] Zolotov’s claim that his force performed ‘excellently’ during the mutiny, there is no evidence that Rosgvardia carried out any effective action against Wagner: exactly the sort of internal security threat it was designed to repress,” the briefing read.

Viktor Zolotov, Putin’s former bodyguard, leads the force.

“With Zolotov previously suggesting that heavy equipment should include artillery and attack helicopters, the move suggests that the Kremlin is doubling down on resourcing Rosgvardia as one of the key organisations to ensure regime security,” it added.

07:55 AM BST

Death toll in Pokrovsk attack rises to eight

Two Russian missile strikes – 40 minutes apart – slammed into Pokrovsk last night, hitting residential buildings, a hotel, shops and administrative buildings.

The death toll this morning had reached at least eight with more than 60 injured. Rescue workers are combing through the rubble. Their work had to be stopped last night “due to the high threat of repeated shelling,” according to Igor Klymenko, Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs.

Pokrovsk is just 30 miles away from the eastern frontline, where Moscow says it is gaining ground.

A high-ranking emergency official of the Donetsk region was among the killed, Mr Klymenko added.

Nick Allen has more on the hotel that was attacked, here.

07:42 AM BST

Good morning

Welcome to today’s Ukraine live blog. Abbie Cheeseman here, guiding you through all of the day’s developments.

First up this morning:

Putin orders attack drone manufacturing to be ramped up 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the head of a state-owned defence conglomerate to increase the production of attack drones, as the drone war between the warring countries ramps up.

In televised footage of the meeting on Monday night, Putin was seen ordering the head of Rostec – which produces around 90 per cent of the equipment used in Ukraine – to bolster the number of weapons.

The need for more Kub and Lancet drones was emphasised by the Russian President, which he assessed to be “very effective”.

“It is necessary to increase the percentage of the production of the latest types of weapons. T-90 ‘Proryv’ tanks, and aircraft systems,” the Russian President said.

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