Ukraine Situation Report: 100k Russian Casualties Since December, White House Says (Updated)
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Russia has made “incremental gains” in Bakhmut, but those gains and other actions have come at the tremendous cost of more than 20,000 Russian troops killed and 80,000 wounded across Ukraine since December, the White House National Security Council (NSC) said Monday.
Author's note: A previous version of this story included information from NSC spokesman John Kirby's Monday briefing in which he stated the casualty figures were from Bakhmut. This story has been updated to reflect corrections made by the NSC after the briefing to other media outlets that the casualties were for all of Ukraine, not just Bakhmut. We have reached out to the NSC and will update this again with any information provided.
Update: We heard back from the NSC, but they didn't add anything more substantive than the update to the story we previously made.
Those more than 100,000 casualties since December came as “Russians attempted an offensive in the Donbas that has failed,” Kirby told reporters, including from The War Zone, Monday afternoon. “Last December, the Russians initiated broad operations across multiple lines of effort including Vuldehar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut and Kreminna. Most of these efforts have stalled and Russia has been unable to seize any real strategic and significant territory.”
NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby: Russia lost 20,000 soldiers with an additional 80,000 wounded trying to take Bakhmut just in the last 5 months.
The battle for Bakhmut has been ongoing for 10 months. pic.twitter.com/KRvnzu18Yy— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) May 1, 2023
Even if Russia does capture all of Bakhmut - which has “little strategic value” to Moscow - “it would absolutely not alter the course of the war in Russia’s favor,” said Kirby. “Ukraine’s defenses in the areas surrounding Bakhmut still remain strong.”
Nearly half of the Russians killed “were Wagner soldiers, the majority of whom were Russian convicts that were thrown into combat in Bakhmut without sufficient combat or combat training, combat leadership or a sense of organizational control,” said Kirby.
"Intense fighting continues in Bakhmut," Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Ukrainian commander of ground forces, said Monday on his Telegram channel. "The enemy launched numerous attacks, trying to break through the defense of our positions in several directions. However, thanks to the steadfastness and courage of the defenders of the Fortress, the enemy's actions failed."
Bakhmut UPD: The Armed Forces of Ukraine went on a counterattack, Russians left some positions.
The situation is difficult, but the Russians can't capture the city.#Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/GOP7saV062— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) May 1, 2023
In order to move forward, "the enemy uses maximum efforts and does not count on anything," Syrskyi said. "Despite the significant losses of the enemy, new assault groups of Wagner, fighters of other private companies, and paratroopers are constantly rushing into battle. But the enemy fails to take control of the city."
"The situation is quite complicated. At the same time, in some parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions."
"Ukrainian troops have launched counterattacks in parts of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, leading Russian troops to abandon some positions, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, reported on May 1." @KyivIndependent
🔗https://t.co/C6xqgFvvrv https://t.co/iyNdKt5UvF— Doug Klain (@DougKlain) May 1, 2023
Asked about Ukraine’s casualty figures, Kirby said he was not going to provide them.
“I reckon that's going to be up to the Ukrainians to speak to,” he said. “We wouldn't speak to their casualty rates or their losses. That's up to them to speak to. I'm not ever going to put anything out in the public domain that's going to make their job harder. They are the victims. Russia is the aggressor…I don't need to abide by that same sense of courtesy for the Russians and I ain’t gonna start now.”
A military paramedic treats a Ukrainian injured serviceman on a street in the frontline city of Bakhmut. (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)
Regardless of Kirby’s reluctance to specify Ukraine’s losses in Bakhmut, most indications are that they are quite high, both in terms of personnel and equipment.
When asked about suggestions from U.S. officials that Ukraine also has paid too dearly for Bakhmut, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate, offered a simple explanation in a recent interview.
“I personally do not accept these recommendations because we are talking about our people and our cities,” he told PBS. “And losing even an inch of our land is a big tragedy.”
As for the timing of the much anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kirby said that was a decision for Kyiv to make.
“That's really a decision for President [Volodymyr] Zelensky to make,” said Kirby. “It's his military."
Current and future operations, “are only for him and his military commanders to decide,” said Kirby. “Based on our discussions with the Ukrainians about the kinds of material they needed for offensive operations that they want to conduct in the Spring, we have fulfilled nearly everything on that list. Nearly everything. I mean, it's almost 100%.”
And there’s more military aid to come, he added.
“You've seen over the last three, four Presidential Drawdown packages that we've announced that they're very much focused on ammunition and clearing capabilities to allow them to have what they need to break through Russian defenses. And you're gonna see continuing packages coming from us very, very soon.”
We will provide details about those future aid packages when we get them.
Before we head into the latest updates from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can catch up on our previous rolling coverage here.
The Latest
Days after a major attack on Sevastopol that set several fuel storage tanks ablaze at a large fuel terminal on the Black Sea port city's west end, Russian officials on Monday claim they downed a Ukrainian drone.
"In the west of Crimea, air defense forces shot down a UAV," Crimean occupation governor Sergey Aksenov said Monday on his Telegram channel. "Our servicemen solve tasks clearly and efficiently. I ask everyone to remain calm and trust only trusted sources of information."
A new drone attack reported in occupied Crimea's Sevastopol
Russian occupational "governor" stated that "air defenses are now repelling the attack of UAVs"
📷Via Trukha Krym pic.twitter.com/aBF5yxXoO2— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 1, 2023
The U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems and the German-made IRIS-T air defense systems are helping Ukraine defend its skies, Col. Yuri Ignat, Kyiv's Air Force spokesman, said Monday, according to the official Ukrinform news agency.
"Believe me, all the Western weapons that are available now, to one degree or another, are working for our victory," Ignat said. "I mean those anti-aircraft missile systems that we are getting. But they are not enough. We understand that saying that IRIS-T and Patriot are in Ukraine is quite good news for us, but we still need much more of them."
Last week, Ukraine produced a video showing off one of its new Patriots, which you can see below.
Germany this week announced that it has delivered a second IRIS-T system to Ukraine as part of its ongoing aid to Kyiv.
The German government has confirmed the transfer of the second IRIS-T SLM air defense system to Ukraine, according to the website of the German government. pic.twitter.com/CeeLKICMaa
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) April 30, 2023
Ukraine's State Emergency Services managed to recover a Kh-55 cruise missile near Kyiv, the Ukrainian OperativnoZSU Telegram channel reported Monday.
"The heavy-type rocket was transported and destroyed by controlled detonation at a special training ground," OperativnoZSU reported.
На Київщині піротехніки ДСНС України вилучили крилату ракету Х-55.
За допомогою піротехнічної машини важкого тип ракету транспортували та ліквідували контрольованим підривом на спеціальному полігоні.https://t.co/7afzWKQabH pic.twitter.com/Nqlsqbf2cG— Оперативний ЗСУ (@operativno_ZSU) May 1, 2023
Ukrainian volunteers have started to develop a “people’s” missile called Trembita, according to the Ukrainian military.
"The work is conducted by the engineers from the PARS volunteer design bureau and with the participation of volunteers from the сivic movement Vidsich. Designers plan to create a small cruise missile with a pulsejet engine."
Ukrainian volunteers developing "people's" combat missile "Trembita".
Designers plan to create a small cruise missile with a pulsating jet engine targeting air defence systems.
Weight: 100 kg
Warhead: 20 kg
Range: 140+ km
Speed: 400+ km/h pic.twitter.com/Bv5n8PRQ4R— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 1, 2023
Russia, meanwhile, is apparently continuing to roll out ancient armor, in this case more T-55 and T-62M tanks in the Berdyansk area. You can read more about this back-to-the-future supply effort in our story here.
Russian T-55 and T-62M tanks reportedly in the Berdyansk area.https://t.co/MEuFvYuvxW pic.twitter.com/iaYTz048C3
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 30, 2023
We've told you about the U.S.-provided AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, or HARMs, provided to Ukraine that are being used on MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters. You can see them in action in this video below.
⚡️Launch of the 🇺🇸American high-speed anti-radar missile AGM-88 HARM by the 🇺🇦Ukrainian Mig 29 fighter pic.twitter.com/pVQqCQDGEv
— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) April 29, 2023
In the latest incident of apparent sabotage in Russia, the governor of Bryansk Oblast says a train derailed Monday because a section of track was blown up.
"An unidentified explosive device went off at 136 km (84 miles) of the Bryansk-Unecha railway in the Unechsky district, as a result of which a freight train locomotive derailed," Alexander Bogomaz wrote on his Telegram channel Monday. "There were no casualties. Emergency services are currently on the scene. Traffic on this section of the road has been suspended."
In Bryansk region of Russia, as a result of the explosion of a planted explosive device on a railway track, a train with oil products derailed. pic.twitter.com/ZktG4wGS1K
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2023
A U.S. Marine veteran was killed in the fighting near Bakhmut.
Cooper “Harris” Andrews, 26, was killed on the outskirts of Bakhmut late last week, CNN reported, citing interviews with his mother and colleagues in Ukraine.
"Andrews, from Cleveland, Ohio, was hit by a mortar, his mother, Willow Andrews said, likely on April 19 on the so-called 'Road of Life' – a rare access road into Bakhmut used by the Ukrainian military to resupply their forces but also evacuate civilians."
Marine veteran Cooper “Harris” Andrews has been killed during a mortar attack near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on a road used to evacuate civilians. https://t.co/GQzyyFtJRD
— Task & Purpose (@TaskandPurpose) May 1, 2023
The New York Times took a deep dive into the fighting in Zaporizhzhia, spending time embedded with the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade.
"For the soldiers of the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade, to which the mortar unit is attached, this is a critical moment in the war," the newspaper reported.
"With fighting in the eastern Donbas region settling into a bloody stalemate, their patch of the Zaporizhzhia region of southeastern Ukraine could prove to be the next big theater, a focal point of a long-awaited counteroffensive. Ukraine is under pressure to show some measure of success in bolstering morale for soldiers and civilians, shoring up Western support and reclaiming stolen territory."
Journalists @mschwirtz and @dguttenfelder from @nytimes have recently spent two weeks embedded with the 110 TDF Brigade on the Zaporizhzhia front, providing an in-depth account of the daily realities of Ukrainian fighters:https://t.co/fUmclsWR9i
— Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces (@TDF_UA) May 1, 2023
The German-provided Gepard short-range air defense system has been a very helpful weapon for Ukraine. Here's a look at its special 35mm ammo that makes it work.
Aufmunitionieren eines Flakpanzer #Gepard 1A2 mit Munition 35mm x 228, HEI-T Sprengbrand. pic.twitter.com/YSUk3O6JcN
— Der Gepardkommandant (@gepardtatze) May 1, 2023
Ukraine's Azov Brigade is now training on how to use the domestically produced "Punisher" light attack drone made by UA Dynamics. The drone, with a maximum combat range of 45 km, was first used by Ukrainian special operations forces in April 2022.
🇺🇦 Нацгвардійці бригади «Азов» тренуються застосовувати ударні безпілотники Punisher
Punisher використовує малогабаритні некеровані фугасні авіабомбиhttps://t.co/KXfPmmbZiT#Україна #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/swz0w0yyCP— Мілітарний (@mil_in_ua) April 30, 2023
Thanks to modern technology, this war has produced some dramatic combat footage, like this video below, where you can see trench warfare vividly unfold.
There's an old adage that you get what you pay for. In the case of this Ukrainian soldier in the video below, it was quality gear that saved his life.
Якісне спорядження рятує життя pic.twitter.com/N7qF170w1H
— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) May 1, 2023
And finally, they may not have found the infamous trench beaver, but Ukrainian troops digging trenches did find something interesting - ancient pottery dating back thousands of years.
Ukrainian soldiers found ancient amphoras dating back to 4-5 centuries BC while digging trenches. They're now at the Odessa Archaeological Museum.
Photo by 126 Commerce Brigade Command Territories pic.twitter.com/NNXTUUbyEm— History Defined (@historydefined) April 30, 2023
That's it for now. We'll update this story when there's more news to report about Ukraine.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com