Ukraine Situation Report: Spring Counteroffensive May Be Needed
Given the slow pace of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, some Western military strategists and policymakers are beginning consider a spring offensive in 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported.
“The shift reflects a deepening appreciation that, barring a major breakthrough, Ukraine’s fight to eject Russia’s invasion forces is likely to take a long time,” the Journal reported.
Ukraine has been making incremental gains, especially in towns along the Mokri Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast.
"In the direction of Urozhayne, further south and southeast of Staromayorske of the Donetsk region, [Ukrainian troops] were successful, they are taking hold of the achieved boundaries," Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on her Telegram channel Monday.
That advance is less than a mile from Staromayorsk, which was liberated about nearly three weeks ago.
The advances have come at a tremendous cost in personnel and equipment and any hopes from the White House that Ukraine will soon regain the territory Russia still holds in the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and all of Crimea may be waning.
“I do think there’s a realization in the administration that Ukraine’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon,” Ivo Daalder, President Barack Obama’s former ambassador to NATO, told the publication.
“Kyiv’s goal now is for its current offensive to culminate with sufficient gains to show Ukrainian citizens and backers in Washington, Berlin and elsewhere that their support hasn’t been misplaced—and should continue,” the Journal reported. “U.S. and other Western officials have hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could bruise Russian forces enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table as soon as this winter for serious talks about some kind of settlement. Chances of that happening now appear slim, diplomats say.“
The Biden administration continues to insist that it will back Ukraine for the long haul.
"We will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes," Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon's top spokesman, told reporters Aug. 10.
However, with the U.S. presidential election slated for November, 2024, there are increasing concerns about just how long support for Ukraine will last. Donald Trump, who has suggested he plans to curtail aid to Ukraine, is the Republican front-runner.
Still, many in the GOP still back aid for Ukraine, the Journal noted.
"In votes last month on defense appropriations, five amendments proposed by House Republicans close to Trump that would have cut aid to Ukraine were defeated by wide margins after more than 130 Republicans voted alongside all Democrats in rejecting them."
“I think that bodes extremely well for support,” said Daalder, the former NATO ambassador.
What this support looks like come next spring remains to be seen. We will continue to closely watch this situation and provide updates when warranted.
Before we head into the latest news from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can catch up on our previous rolling coverage of the war here.
The Latest
Fighting appears to still be going on in
