Ukraine Gets Long-Term German and French Security Guarantees

Michael Nienaber and Ania Nussbaum
·4 min read
25
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

(Bloomberg) -- President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed separate long-term security deals with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron as Ukraine’s worsening artillery shortage threatens to force a further rationing of shells.

Most Read from Bloomberg

The agreements sealed Friday in Berlin and Paris are designed to deter Russia from future aggression against its western neighbor after the current war ends. They’re part of an initiative launched by the Group of Seven nations last year and Zelenskiy agreed a similar accord with the UK last month.

Hosting Zelenskiy at the chancellery, Scholz also announced a new package of air-defense and artillery systems for Ukraine worth about €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion). Macron pledged additional assistance worth as much as €3 billion for this year at a joint news conference with the Ukrainian leader later on Friday.

“Our determination is as strong as it was on day one,” Macron told reporters after the signing ceremony at the Elysee Palace, adding that he’ll visit Ukraine before mid-March.

Scholz said the German security accord — the first time it has taken on the role of a guarantor state — and the latest military aid send “a crystal clear message” to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We will not back down in our support for Ukraine,” he added. Zelenskiy said Germany’s latest shipment of arms — particularly the artillery — would start to reach the front “very soon.”

“Unfortunately we have a tangible decline in supplies from partners and German support in this situation is vitally important for Ukraine and our soldiers,” he said.

Zelenskiy is on the first leg of his latest trip to shore up support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion. He’ll now travel back to Germany for the Munich Security Conference, where he’ll hold a series of bilateral meetings with global leaders.

Zelenskiy and his military commanders have blamed the failure of last year’s counteroffensive on a dearth of sufficient materiel from Western allies.

Ukraine’s lack of artillery capability could become so critical in the next two to three months that the country may have to decide where to focus a narrower effort along the war front, according to people familiar with the matter.

That could open the door to Russian advances later this year. Ukraine is effectively already having to ration its artillery as allied ammunition supplies have fallen short. Bloomberg reported last month that Kyiv told its allies that it was facing a critical shortage and was outgunned by Russia three-to-one.

Additional US assistance remains deadlocked in Congress amid a domestic fight over immigration and border policy. Although the US Senate this week approved funding, the legislation faces considerable obstacles in the Republican-controlled House.

Read More: Ukraine Reinforces Embattled Stronghold as Russia Advances

At the same time, former President Donald Trump is considering scaled-back commitments to some NATO members and pushing Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war if he returns to office after this year’s election.

Ukraine would need as much as double the military support from the European Union to bridge the gap if more US assistance failed to materialize, according to estimates published Friday by Germany’s Kiel Institute.

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said the effort to keep sufficient supplies flowing to Ukraine is getting more difficult as “Russia has transitioned to war economy mode and they really scaled up their side of ammunition.”

“We’re very committed to give Ukraine all the ammunition it needs but need to start on the side of the production capacity,” Ollongren told reporters ahead of the Munich meeting.

“We have to do more,” she added. “We’re really trying everything and still it’s not enough.”

Read More: Putin Seeks Revenge on a World Order He Once Wanted to Join

Zelenskiy is due to discuss “Ukraine in the World” in a conversation on stage in Munich with CNN’s Christiane Armanpour at 9:30 a.m. in the Bavarian capital on Saturday.

--With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Alex Wickham, Samy Adghirni, Daryna Krasnolutska, Natalia Drozdiak, Ellen Milligan, John Bowker, Kateryna Chursina and Patrick Donahue.

(Updates with French agreement, Macron comments, starting in first paragraph)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.