Ukrainian forces forced to retreat from part of eastern front
Semafor Signals
Insights from Politico and the Institute for the Study of War
The News
Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat from three towns on the eastern front, where Russia’s military is carrying out an assault on the entire 620-mile frontline. Russian troops are encroaching on the town of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian military hub.
Kyiv is awaiting aid from the US, which recently voted in favor of a massive package that could resolve some of the Ukrainian military’s shortcomings.
SIGNALS
Ukraine says supply shortages caused retreat
Source: Politico
Ukraine’s new military commander-in-chief wrote on Telegram that a shortage of military supplies prompted his troops’ withdrawal from the eastern front, adding that Russian forces are better equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has echoed the concerns, saying that a lack of supplies coming from Western allies has hampered Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia. About $60 billion in US aid will soon arrive in Kyiv — but some Biden administration officials and lawmakers have questioned whether more weapons from Washington will be enough to help Ukraine win the war or temporarily ward Russia off. One US official told Politico that the “immediate goal” is to stem losses and give Ukraine back some momentum, after which the goal is to help regain territory. Will they have what they need to win? Ultimately, yes. But it’s not a guarantee that they will,” the official said.
Despite withdrawals, Russian troops unlikely to get strong foothold
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Despite the Russian forces’ advancements along the eastern front, it is unlikely that troops will immediately make significant inroads in the area, the Institute for the Study of War noted in an assessment Sunday. Ukraine’s “withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains,” and owing to Ukrainian reinforcements, Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term,” the ISW wrote. Meanwhile, the Russian military may try to make a push towards Pokrovsk, “because there may be greater opportunities for tactical gains in the area west of Avdiivka than towards the north,” the report said.
