Nations' formal emissions-cutting pledges are collectively way too weak to put the world on track to meet the Paris climate deal's temperature-limiting target, a United Nations tally shows.
Driving the news: This morning the UN released an analysis of the most recent nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — that is, countries' medium-term emissions targets submitted under the 2015 pact.
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By the numbers: The UN said the combined effect of the targets, if achieved, would lead to a 1% drop in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels.
Yet a pathway to limiting long-term temperature rise to 1.5°C — the most ambitious goal of the deal — would require a roughly 45% cut by then.
Why it matters: It's no secret that combined efforts are falling short.
But the analysis both tallies the gap and highlights the importance of the big UN climate summit in Scotland late this year and nations' actions in the runup.
"Today’s interim report ... is a red alert for our planet," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
Yes, but: It's not as grim as the headline numbers suggest. Patricia Espinosa, the UN's top climate official, emphasized in a statement that the analysis is a "snapshot, not a full picture."
The report tallies new or revised NDCs from 75 parties that account for about 30% of global emissions.
Many large nations, including China, the biggest emitter, have not yet submitted their revised targets.
The U.S. plans to unveil a 2030 target ahead of a summit Biden is convening on April 22.
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