UN sees two in three chance world will temporarily reach temperature threshold soon

Lauren Sforza
·2 min read
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The United Nations weather agency reported Wednesday that there is a 2 in 3 chance that the world will temporarily reach the temperature threshold to trigger the most severe effects of climate change.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that there is a 66 percent chance that the world’s average near-surface temperature will increase more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial levels for at least one year during the next five years.

The report also stated that there was a 98 percent chance that at least one of the years, as well as the five-year period, will be the warmest ever recorded.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold was set by the 2016 Paris climate agreement that aimed to prevent catastrophic global warming. The WMO noted that the chances of surpassing that threshold have been increasing since 2015.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

The report cited the upcoming El Niño climate patterns expected to occur in the next few months as contributing to the increase in temperatures. The El Niño is the warm phase of the climate pattern known as El Niño Southern Oscillation and will begin by late spring or early summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” Taalas said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

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