UNC basketball March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament chances ahead of Duke game
North Carolina basketball has work to do if the Tar Heels want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday as an NCAA Tournament selection.
As it stands, the Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8 ACC) remain in bubble trouble among the first four teams out, according to the recent bracketology projections.
UNC is 45th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings and has a 1-8 record against Quadrant 1 opponents. Home games against teams ranked inside the top 30 in the NET, neutral games against the top 50 and away games against top 75 opponents are considered Quadrant 1 opportunities.
The Tar Heels have three wins – Charleston, NC State and Virginia – against teams currently projected to make the tournament field. All 11 of UNC's losses are within Quadrants 1 and 2.
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Coming off its 77-66 win at Florida State, UNC rides a three-game winning streak into its regular-season finale against Duke on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at the Smith Center.
Carolina will need strong finishes from Virginia and Duke to maximize its Quad 1 opportunities. The Tar Heels beat the Cavaliers, who saw their NET ranking drop to 28 on Tuesday morning. In order for UNC’s home win against Virginia to remain a Q1 victory, the Hoos need to stay inside the top 30.
Duke is 24th in the NET ahead of Tuesday’s game against NC State at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
On the flip side, Carolina’s neutral-site win against Michigan in December could turn into another Quad 1 victory if the Wolverines can build on their three-game winning streak and move into the top 50 of the NET rankings. Michigan is currently 54th in the NET and closes the regular-season with games at Indiana and Illinois.
On Selection Sunday in 2022, UNC was 24-9 and ranked 31st in the NET with a 3-8 record in Q1 games and a combined 21-1 against Q2-Q4 opponents. The Tar Heels are 45th in the NET with a 1-8 record in Q1 games and a combined 18-3 mark against Q2-Q4 opponents.
Comparing Carolina’s resume to Power Five teams that hovered around the bubble ahead of the 2022 bracket reveal, Notre Dame, Indiana and Rutgers made the 68-team field.
The Hoosiers were 38th in the NET on Selection Sunday with four Q1 victories. The Fighting Irish also had four Q1 wins and finished 53rd in the NET. The Scarlet Knights were 77th in the NET, but had six Q1 wins.
As for the two teams that were among the first four left out of the 2022 field, Texas A&M was 43rd in the NET with four Q1 wins and a 22-12 record. Oklahoma was 18-15, 39th in the NET, with four Q1 wins.
Numbers aside, UNC can ease the tension ahead of the bracket reveal on March 13 with this scenario: beat Duke and win a couple games in the ACC Tournament.
Here are some bracketology projections as of Tuesday morning.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com: First team out
Lunardi has UNC as the first team out heading into Tuesday’s games, just behind Arizona State and Wisconsin. The Sun Devils (20-9) are 61st in the NET, with a 4-3 record in Q1 games and a combined 16-6 against Q2-Q4 opponents. One of ASU's losses came against a Quad 4 opponent. The Badgers (16-12) are 72nd in the NET, with six Quad 1 wins and a 10-6 mark against Q2-Q4 opponents.
Jerry Palm, CBSSports.com: First four out
Palm has UNC in a group including Oklahoma State, Penn State and Arizona State among the first four out. Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Michigan and West Virginia are Palm’s last four in the field.
USA TODAY: First four out
USA TODAY has UNC among Arizona State, Utah State and Michigan in the first four out. Those projections have Southern California, Memphis, Auburn and Oklahoma State as the last four teams in the field.
Bracket Matrix: Second team out
The Bracket Matrix formula considers the preeminent bracketology projections from across the web and averages them out to create a composite 68-team field. The Tar Heels are the second team out, projected into the field in 15 of 104 projections considered as of Tuesday morning. Wisconsin is the last team in and Arizona State is the first team out of the field.
Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball: Mark Madness outlook for NCAA Tournament with Duke next
