UNC basketball vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, score prediction for CBS Sports Classic

Rodd Baxley, The Fayetteville Observer
·3 min read

Through 11 games, North Carolina basketball is still in search of its first win against a top 25 opponent.

The bright lights of New York City will provide an opportunity for the Tar Heels (7-4, 1-1 ACC) to get over the hump as they face No. 23 Ohio State (7-2) on Saturday (3 p.m., CBS) in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of Carolina’s game against the Buckeyes.

UNC needs its best in Big Apple

After starting the season 0-4 against teams inside the top 50 of KenPom’s analytic rankings, the Tar Heels need to bring their best to the Big Apple this weekend.

Late-game execution buried UNC in losses to Iowa State and Alabama. Indiana and Virginia Tech combined for 92 points in the paint to extend the Heels’ losing streak to four before wins against Georgia Tech and The Citadel.

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In those four losses, UNC shot 41.4% from the field, including 23.7% on 3-point attempts. Its opponents made nearly twice as many threes in that stretch, outrebounded the Heels by 3.0 per game and averaged 7.3 more assists per game.

If UNC is going to win Saturday, it’ll have to shore up those areas. The Buckeyes are fourth in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom’s analytics rankings, and top 10 in rebounding margin at plus-10.4.

Dontrez Styles, Tyler Nickel, UNC’s bench production

Kinston native Dontrez Styles (3) provided some big minutes off the bench for UNC in its rout of The Citadel. Bench production could be a key factor in Saturday's game against Ohio State.
Kinston native Dontrez Styles (3) provided some big minutes off the bench for UNC in its rout of The Citadel. Bench production could be a key factor in Saturday's game against Ohio State.

Sure, it was against The Citadel, but UNC’s reserves had a 42-18 advantage in bench points against the Bulldogs. It's something that could give the Tar Heels some confidence about their depth moving forward. Freshman wing Tyler Nickel had 16 points in 18 minutes and sophomore Dontrez Styles added nine points and six rebounds in 16 minutes. The bench is capable of giving UNC a much-needed boost against the Buckeyes.

Tar Heels at the free-throw line

The Tar Heels are getting it done at the charity stripe. They’re shooting an average of 26.3 free throws per game, the third-most attempts by the program in the last 45 years, according to UNC stats and information.

Only two teams (1994-95, 2004-05) averaged more attempts per game, and one of them (2004-05) ended the season with a national championship. Carolina is second in the country in free throws made per game (19.8) and 10th in attempts, converting at a clip of 75.4%.

UNC vs. Ohio State score prediction 

UNC 75, Ohio State 70: The Tar Heels have won 12 of the 15 meetings in the series, but the Buckeyes earned a 25-point win at the Smith Center in 2019. Armando Bacot played only seven minutes that night before leaving because of an injury. The senior will log a double-double performance Saturday to help UNC snag its first quality win of the season.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball vs. Ohio State: Score prediction for CBS Sports Classic