Advertisement

UNC basketball vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction for ACC matchup

rodd baxley, the fayetteville observer
·3 min read
13

After a pair of impressive wins against Wake Forest and Notre Dame at the Smith Center, North Carolina basketball hits the road to face No. 13 Virginia.

The Tar Heels (11-5, 3-2 ACC) take on the Cavaliers (11-3, 3-2) on Tuesday (9 p.m., ESPN). The two programs have combined to win seven of nine regular-season championships in the ACC.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of North Carolina’s game against Virginia.

Doubling Armando Bacot 

UNC's Armando Bacot (5) is the ACC's leading scorer and rebounder. Bacot will likely have to deal with constant double teams against Virginia.
UNC's Armando Bacot (5) is the ACC's leading scorer and rebounder. Bacot will likely have to deal with constant double teams against Virginia.

UNC star Armando Bacot can expect to see multiple Virginia defenders in his face.

During coach Tony Bennett’s tenure, the Cavaliers have made a habit of doubling the post. With Pete Nance's status uncertain and Bacot averaging an ACC-best 18.8 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, that task becomes all the more important for Virginia’s pack-line defense.

BENCH PRODUCTION:How UNC basketball reserves made impact vs Notre Dame with Pete Nance injured

'I GOT YOUR BACK':UNC basketball’s Caleb Love defends Puff Johnson after Notre Dame foul

Bacot’s progress as a passer has helped UNC’s offense evolve in recent games. Over the last three games, the 6-foot-11 preseason All-American has 12 assists against six turnovers. In the first seven games, Bacot had eight assists against 26 turnovers.

Virginia’s experience 

Despite returning four of five starters who played in the 2022 national championship game, UNC doesn’t have as much experience as Virginia.

According to KenPom’s analytics, Virginia’s roster has 3.52 years of experience – which ranks fourth in the nation. Carolina comes in at No. 22 with 2.92 years of experience.

Virginia’s veteran trio of Armaan Franklin, Kihei Clark and Jayden Gardner are averaging double figures at just over 11 points per game.  Reece Beekman, one of the top two-way players in the ACC, is just behind that trio at 9.8 points per game.

The Cavaliers are among KenPom’s top 25 teams in adjusted offensive (23) and defensive (21) efficiency. UNC is 13th in offensive efficiency and 70th on defense.

UNC’s road woes

The Tar Heels are 8-0 in Chapel Hill this season, but 0-3 in true road games with losses at Indiana, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.

Aside from wins at Duke (2022, 2019), UNC hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent on the road since defeating No. 15 Louisville in 2019.

The stats at Virginia are even more troubling. The Tar Heels have lost seven straight in Charlottesville and haven’t topped a ranked Cavaliers squad on the road since 2012.

UNC’s margin of defeat in its seven-game losing streak to the Hoos is 10.2 points, including four double-digit losses.

UNC vs. Virginia score prediction 

Virginia 70, UNC 66: The Tar Heels have proved to be tough to top at home, but they haven’t been able to carry that momentum on the road. After a pair of blowout losses to UNC last season, the Hoos will get a boost from a fired up home crowd and edge out the Heels.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction